- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 44,339
- Reaction score
- 3,842
My point with the Obama example was to show that his % chance to win was fairly large although it was only a 4% margin. Romney basically had no chance to win at greater than 1%. People like SBJJ honestly do not understand what they are looking at if they don't think Obama was incredible value last year.
Now look at this election. Let's look at a margin up to 3%. What do you think each candidates % chance is along these margins?
0-1%
1-2%
2-3%
I'm obviously not saying Trump doesn't have a chance to win as I clearly think he does, but if he does, he'll likely just squeak by. Clinton clearly has a good chance at winning by a very thin margin, but she has a chance at winning more comfortably at 1-2%. It's also not out of the question that she wins 2-3%. I think a lot of people chasing Trump at this point are doing it for the fact that he may be able to keep this to a close margin, but has his chance to win really changed that much? IMO, no, you just have a far more likelihood of losing in the 0-2% range.
Now look at this election. Let's look at a margin up to 3%. What do you think each candidates % chance is along these margins?
0-1%
1-2%
2-3%
I'm obviously not saying Trump doesn't have a chance to win as I clearly think he does, but if he does, he'll likely just squeak by. Clinton clearly has a good chance at winning by a very thin margin, but she has a chance at winning more comfortably at 1-2%. It's also not out of the question that she wins 2-3%. I think a lot of people chasing Trump at this point are doing it for the fact that he may be able to keep this to a close margin, but has his chance to win really changed that much? IMO, no, you just have a far more likelihood of losing in the 0-2% range.