Political Betting Thread

Wikileaks dropped some seriously incriminating shit today. Classified info printed by Hillarys maid, Chelsea using the foundation for personal spending, Robby Mook listing corporations that are involved in the pay to play

Can Americans wake tf up so my Trump bets can cash?
 
big line movement, as the FBI declares the additional emails won't change their initial verdict, trump hit 6.0 for a tiny bit, back in to 5.5 now.
 
hillary 1.2 now, that moved the price more than the polls. trump out to 6.2 now
 
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Predictions:

I think Clinton will win NV and VA.

I think Trump will win OH and NC.

Betting-relevant:

I guess I disagree with the market again. I think Trump has three paths here assuming CO does not flip.

NC+ FL +OH +

one of 1. (MI+IA) 2. (MI+NH) 3.PA


Big unknowns:
Florida
Colorado
Michigan
Pennsylvania
 
Surprisingly it looks like New Mexico might actually be in play. If the third parties take enough votes away from HIllary, Trump might be able to win it. It would be really weird if Trump loses Nevada, but wins New Mexico.
 
Trump wins nevada +400

I think the polls have it tied
 
rille31 said:
Trump wins nevada +400

I think the polls have it tied
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Careful with that one. Early voting was not looking good for Trump and he has very little ground game to combat the high latino turnout.
 
I bet more than I'd like to admit on Hillary over the last few months.
 
Tebowned said:
I bet more than I'd like to admit on Hillary over the last few months.
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I think you are safe. Hard to see her losing at this point.
 
I am betting Trump pretty heavy here @ +500 and here is the reason. Much like the remain campaign in Britain, the strategy of Trump opponents is to claim that anyone supporting him has to be a racist bigot. Therefore people, again, much like the remain campaign, are ashamed to admit they are voting Trump, but once they get to the boot, they will. So in a normal situation the current poll results would make a Hillary bet pretty good value at these odds, but here I am putting my money on the idiotic campaign distorting the poll results.
 
conscience said:
I am betting Trump pretty heavy here @ +500 and here is the reason. Much like the remain campaign in Britain, the strategy of Trump opponents is to claim that anyone supporting him has to be a racist bigot. Therefore people, again, much like the remain campaign, are ashamed to admit they are voting Trump, but once they get to the boot, they will. So in a normal situation the current poll results would make a Hillary bet pretty good value at these odds, but here I am putting my money on the idiotic campaign distorting the poll results.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...tional-race-dead-heat-polls-swing-toss-states
 
conscience said:
I am betting Trump pretty heavy here @ +500 and here is the reason. Much like the remain campaign in Britain, the strategy of Trump opponents is to claim that anyone supporting him has to be a racist bigot. Therefore people, again, much like the remain campaign, are ashamed to admit they are voting Trump, but once they get to the boot, they will. So in a normal situation the current poll results would make a Hillary bet pretty good value at these odds, but here I am putting my money on the idiotic campaign distorting the poll results.
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It's a solid theory. I still think he loses big, but that doesn't mean your theory is wrong. Probably means he won't lose the popular vote as big as some projections and maybe he wins a few more states and the electoral vote is closer than what people think.

I'm gonna make a small play on Trump electoral votes +74.5 at +145. I think it's close to even that he gets within this #.
 
mkess101 said:
It's a solid theory. I still think he loses big, but that doesn't mean your theory is wrong. Probably means he won't lose the popular vote as big as some projections and maybe he wins a few more states and the electoral vote is closer than what people think.

I'm gonna make a small play on Trump electoral votes +74.5 at +145. I think it's close to even that he gets within this #.
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I like that line. would hit
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Would you hit +99.5 -150 also? YOu should check em out on 5d, theres a variety of different props
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Yes.

I have no BR set up for politics, but I think I will be setting one up after realizing I could have gotten rich off this cycle.
 
trump is getting bet pretty heavy atm, he's currently 4.8 on the exchange. you have to think a significant % of the money being wagered today is just casual money accumulating because of trump's price
 
Roads55 said:
trump is getting bet pretty heavy atm, he's currently 4.8 on the exchange. you have to think a significant % of the money being wagered today is just casual money accumulating because of trump's price
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There has been an overraction on the betting market the odds should have never gone past 5, he's 28% according to 538. He's an underdog for sure but Hillary is definitely not a lock even if you take a pure number approach(average of all major polls) and completely ignoring factors like the above poster said about brexit and the shame factor I mentioned earlier.

That said I think my politics betting heater is finally coming to an end.
 
UAK said:
There has been an overraction on the betting market the odds should have never gone past 5, he's 28% according to 538. He's an underdog for sure but Hillary is definitely not a lock even if you take a pure number approach(average of all major polls) and completely ignoring factors like the above poster said about brexit and the shame factor I mentioned earlier.

That said I think my politics betting heater is finally coming to an end.
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quite possibly, it's harder to determine what the actual price should of been with all of the possible things that could of derailed either candidates campaign's but it's evident that the market had too much stock into the FBI changing their stance on Hillary, compared too thing's like high latino turnout, possible brexit connotations, early voter turnout etc.
 
In Hillary's favour is a small lead in the polls plus a favourable electoral college map. In Trump's favour is a big voter enthusiasm gap and possibly the shy voter effect skewing the polls.

I'm not optimistic about Trump's chances, we'll see tonight.
 
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