Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

apparently the latest cbs poll was done from october 28th-1st november, if that's true then that doesn't take into account the latest revelations and media reaction to Hillary having a heads up about the FBI probe.

 

[Oblivian]

You sure post a lot here for not posting here...

Glad to see your math is about as good as your logic.

 

[Oblivian]

I don't think your accounting for the anomaly that is this event in regard to the polls. you can't rule out the possibility of clinton's campaign nosediving in light of certain revelations and the odds reflect that. do they reflect it too much? sure possibly, I think ppl are just being cautious as this is such a strange event happening right now made even more bizarre when you bet on it.

I can't speak for @SBJJ but that statement is fairly ambiguous and in a way 4% isn't a huge victory(obviously in political terms it is) but a 4% difference of the vote purely in numerical terms isn't that much.

I'm sure lots of people would welcome you posting more as apart from 1 or 2 idiots we have had some good discussions and info in here which your more than welcome to take part in. this is a relatively new thread and as such a lot of people including myself who in no way claim to be political experts are learning a lot about the whole debacle while looking at it through gambling terms (which obviously differ from purely political terms) and a lot people ITT are making money as a result, or at least in a position to free-roll. where there is chaos there is opportunity and there will be times in the next week in which there will be some very good lines.

hopefully we can extend this thread in the future to a general political one as there seems to be interest in other elections/political bet's also. as long as we don't attract any war-roomers that is.

I'm not even talking particularly about this thread - I'm talking about the betting forum in general. It's a joke now and it's been that way for a while. Shit, you have people in the thread now that don't even know who Marcin Held is and they are almost regulars.

In regards to the 4% comment, that's a fairly large victory when calculating % chance to win which is what betting is about. Don't forget that is what this entire conversation is supposed to be about - % chance of winning. Again, set the margin at 4%. Answer me this off of the top of your head: What do you think Obama's chances were at the following and what do you think Romney's were:
1. Win by greater than 4%
2. Win by 3-4%?
3. Win by 2-3%?
4. Win by 1-2%?
5. Win by 0-1%?

People that think a -300 favorite should be winning by 5%+ don't even know what they are analyzing.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Glad to see your math is about as good as your logic.

I have great math the best math. No one has better logic than me...no one.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I'm not even talking particularly about this thread - I'm talking about the betting forum in general. It's a joke now and it's been that way for a while. Shit, you have people in the thread now that don't even know who Marcin Held is and they are almost regulars.
.

Sure there are a lot of random gamblers in the MMA threads but there are also regulars with consistently good insight.

-EZ
-JIM
-PUERTO RICAN
-CARD
-SHAM
-REBEL LION
-MKESS

That list is not even exhaustive. And yes even JB has good input on many fights...

If people don't know who Held is at least they can admit it rather than trying to offer input about someone they don't know about. It is hard to keep track of everyone between the various promotions and GLORY, LION etc.

 

[Bradillac]

New polls have Trump up in NH, NV and tied in CO. Early voting in Nevada doesn't look good for Trump though.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Sure there are a lot of random gamblers in the MMA threads but there are also regulars with consistently good insight.

-EZ
-JIM
-PUERTO RICAN
-CARD
-SHAM
-REBEL LION
-MKESS

That list is not even exhaustive. And yes even JB has good input on many fights...

If people don't know who Held is at least they can admit it rather than trying to offer input about someone they don't know about. It is hard to keep track of everyone between the various promotions and GLORY, LION etc.

Me and O have had our beefs but I think we both appreciate each other's insight. Sad to see him go just when we started getting along

 

[Slohog]

Also would like to state that while I'm not a statistician, there's a fairly big margin of errors in polls which is why I try to focus on polls of polls and such for it to even out.

I think the key to this election isn't if one candidate happens to get a few more percents of the popular vote, but rather who can win a couple of key states. That's why I've kept from adding on Trump for the longest time but since early this week I'm reasonably big on him while still not feeling he's a favorite or anything weird like that.

According to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html Clinton has a lead of 226 against 180 electoral votes with 132 votes up in the air as toss ups, which is the best number I've seen for Trump in a decent while. The most important part here for me is that Pennsylvania really looks to be in play and if Trump manages to sneak that one I think he'll have a fairly easy way to victory.

As I see it it's basically Trump's enthusiasm and ability to get asses in seats (or rather, get them to vote) against the democrat party organisations ability to get people to vote. In a normal election I'd be all over the democrats, but given the Sanders stuff earlier and all the scandals Clinton has been involved in I think they only really strong motivation for volunteers is their hatred of Trump. That said I don't know if you can build a campaign on hate and still get people to work as hard as for someone they believe in.

Also found out that some very successful Swedish high stakes poker players who I know off has a betting ring or whatever has about ~100k or so on Trump and as far as I can tell they're the kind of people who doesn't like to part with money so I tailed them a bit when I added to my bet.

 

[SBJJ]

I'm not even talking particularly about this thread - I'm talking about the betting forum in general. It's a joke now and it's been that way for a while. Shit, you have people in the thread now that don't even know who Marcin Held is and they are almost regulars.

In regards to the 4% comment, that's a fairly large victory when calculating % chance to win which is what betting is about. Don't forget that is what this entire conversation is supposed to be about - % chance of winning. Again, set the margin at 4%. Answer me this off of the top of your head: What do you think Obama's chances were at the following and what do you think Romney's were:
1. Win by greater than 4%
2. Win by 3-4%?
3. Win by 2-3%?
4. Win by 1-2%?
5. Win by 0-1%?

People that think a -300 favorite should be winning by 5%+ don't even know what they are analyzing.

Idk man. U seem to just come in here and bitch and shit on everything and anything. From the Polls to the posters in this forum and other forums. Everyone is wrong and full of shit but u are enlightened. Sorry, that's how u sound.

What usually differentiates dudes from females is there ability to disagree even fight, sometimes physically but not hold grudges. U seem pissed off over some really small shit.

 

[SBJJ]

I just love people who pop in here to lecture and educate us who have been in here for months building up free rolls and hitting states at damn near the perfect spots.

Oblivian, go read our discussions on NV & IA.

Did u just come in here to educate us goofs who are actually betting on this stuff.

Sorry man, it just smells bad when dudes come in here acting like Ballers lecturing to guys who are actually doing rather well

And arguing last election to make points about this election is like bringing up Lineker v Dodson to argue Cain Werdum 2

 

[SBJJ]

I know. It's Sean hannity. I'm not a big fan, but it's damn effective. Trump should just play this in all battleground states.

 

[mkess101]

I know. It's Sean hannity. I'm not a big fan, but it's damn effective. Trump should just play this in all battleground states.

She is a repugnant human being but her ads showing how repugnant Trump is with the way he talks about women were political mastery imo. Spammed them during the last few days and showing kids watching him say that stuff is gonna resonate with a lot of people imo. I think what it could do is have some of the people who were going to vote for Trump just as a vote against Hillary stay home and not vote at all or maybe look for a different option.

 

[SBJJ]

She is a repugnant human being but her ads showing how repugnant Trump is with the way he talks about women were political mastery imo. Spammed them during the last few days and showing kids watching him say that stuff is gonna resonate with a lot of people imo. I think what it could do is have some of the people who were going to vote for Trump just as a vote against Hillary stay home and not vote at all or maybe look for a different option.

Oh. I agree, some of her ads are brilliant and done almost in a Hollywood movie type way.

While most of Trumps ads seem to be more crude. Kinda like him.

 

[SBJJ]

Oblivian, u said u got Obama at near evens in 2012. When was that?

 

[UAK]

Trump went from being a long shot to a live dog in the last days... interesting election. Feels like it's election in sweden given how much the news are covering the american election.

You have to adjust for the shame factor, it's not as easy as just taking the average of polls, estimating a confidence interval and then comparing to betting odds before making a bet.

It's hard to say how much Trump is being underestimated in the polls. The pro-hillary argument is that the shame factor has declined over the years and people are way less shy and upfront with their politically incorrect opinions. I'm not sure if he's so massively underrated in the polls as people like to think he is but I do think he's being underestimated and given how fast the polls are tightening and the odds haven't gone to shit yet I think the betting value is still with Trump.

Full Disclaimer: I don't like Trump or Hillary. Fuck 'em both, but from a betting perspetive I like Trump. My objective 2 cents.

Edit: Btw, of all the politically incorrect bets I've made, Trump to become president is the one I've been the least confident about. I was far more confident in my republican nominee bet(awesome value).

 

[Oblivian]

Oblivian, u said u got Obama at near evens in 2012. When was that?

Reading comprehension.

 

[bruthead]

Trump out to +275 on the Eurobooks. Can't tell why.

 

[SBJJ]

Oblivian, u said u got Obama at near evens in 2012. When was that?

Lol. Went back and read through all your long winded smug posts. And I guess u said moderate odds. Once again an incredibly vague bunch of shit. I guess Hillary at -300 is moderate also.

Hard to really gauge what u even mean since u post so many words but actually say so little.

Kinda wish u just posted the same amount of words as currency u actually bet. U keep posting all your dribble while we actually make money.

U are close to the Barry of this forum. Lol

 

[Oblivian]

Reading comprehension.

Lol. Went back and read through all your long winded smug posts. And I guess u said moderate odds. Once again an incredibly vague bunch of shit. I guess Hillary at -300 is moderate also.

Hard to really gauge what u even mean since u post so many words but actually say so little.

Kinda wish u just posted the same amount of words as currency u actually bet. U keep posting all your dribble while we actually make money.

U are close to the Barry of this forum. Lol

Appreciate you proving my point. Congrats on the e-meltdown.

 

[Roads55]

I'm not even talking particularly about this thread - I'm talking about the betting forum in general. It's a joke now and it's been that way for a while. Shit, you have people in the thread now that don't even know who Marcin Held is and they are almost regulars.

In regards to the 4% comment, that's a fairly large victory when calculating % chance to win which is what betting is about. Don't forget that is what this entire conversation is supposed to be about - % chance of winning. Again, set the margin at 4%. Answer me this off of the top of your head: What do you think Obama's chances were at the following and what do you think Romney's were:
1. Win by greater than 4%
2. Win by 3-4%?
3. Win by 2-3%?
4. Win by 1-2%?
5. Win by 0-1%?

People that think a -300 favorite should be winning by 5%+ don't even know what they are analyzing.

what has knowing who marcin held is got to do with anything? I don't have a clue who half the prelim fighters are these days and that doesn't make any difference to my betting or analysing other fights. hell I'm doing better than ever.

there's still a lot of good discussion in these threads, just because half the old posters broke their bank and stopped posting doesn't change that. maybe EzFlyer could be a little bit more trigger happy with the dubs, that might help a little. also a lot of posters don't have time to read through the threads every week now also, I know I don't a lot of the time atm.
Also MMA betting has changed a LOT over the last few years and a lot of the opportunities and value simply aren't there any more so that is bound to have an effect for some people also.

this conversation is about the % chance of winning which we have been discussing in here for weeks. not exclusively what the polls say. they are 2 different thing's, and you have to account for that with betting lines.
I don't understand the obama question tbh, not only is it a tremendously different election than the last one for obvious reasons but the chance of those examples would of differed greatly from time to time. Even if I wanted to answer I can't remember half the shit that that was happening 4 years ago to factor into my answer.

I get what your saying about people not analsying thing's correctly but there was a lot of bad analysing when these threads were started also, and lots of bad bet's being made...that's what discussion in here is for, it's a learning experience come join us instead of whining about "the good ol days"