Political Betting Thread

Barkus said:
The bad news for Clinton is snowballing. FBI sources say there's a 99% chance that her server was hacked by at least 5 foreign intelligence agencies.

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Meanwhile CNN is debating if Comey should resign
 
Clinton is so damn fucked. She won't be electable in 5 days. Tonights news was HUGE and the big rumor is this third phase of wikileaks thats coming is Hillarys emails. Not going to add to Not Hillary yet but I will be hawking that line. This bubble has to burst. The hacks at CNN are the only ones not reporting this
 
Joseph Budden said:
Clinton is so damn fucked. She won't be electable in 5 days. Tonights news was HUGE and the big rumor is this third phase of wikileaks thats coming is Hillarys emails. Not going to add to Not Hillary yet but I will be hawking that line. This bubble has to burst. The hacks at CNN are the only ones not reporting this
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Is there any point to betting NOT Hillary at this point? Unless NOT Hillary and Trump are the same line, I would bet Trump at this point.
 
Oblivian said:
Betting an election is not like betting a fight. It's not a "one punch and everything changes" event. At this point, Trump needs several things to line up to win it. I would be fairly shocked if he wins at this point.
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I would be shocked if Clinton wins with a national margin of >2%.
 
can't believe obama is getting so involved, his image is going to take a huge hit, especially after being completely undermined by the DA pipeline still being built after he called for a halt on construction. the polls will make interesting reading today.

I'm also amazed ppl would still be shocked if trump wins atm, the 2016 Presidential election is now a black swan event in many's eyes and the fact of the matter is that trump has a good chance and has had for a while. the race is damn close atm and who knows what can happen in between now and election day with wikileaks/kimdotcom etc, not to mention the added media pressure and credibility given to the leaks, the ever shrinking defensive platform she is occupying, and the consequences that need to be acknowledged by her campaign. she is in an increasingly untenable position atm and it's hard to see it getting easier for her.

waiguoren said:
Is there any point to betting NOT Hillary at this point? Unless NOT Hillary and Trump are the same line, I would bet Trump at this point.
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they are nearing the same line now as election day get's closer. betting £100 against hillary on the exchanges pays £40. betting that £40 on trump wins £104 currently. not a lot of difference at all. I'm still betting against hillary, but partly to lower my liability on the field (just to free up my cash to reinvest). not sure what the bookies lines are for not hillary but they likely aren't worth the extra juice I'm presuming has been taken out of them

in a day or 2 the line will be pretty much the same, much like the difference in the "which party will win" market and the "gender of next president" marketw

waiguoren said:
I would be shocked if Clinton wins with a national margin of >2%.
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it's definitely possible she won't. ppl saying trump needs the stars to align for a win don't seem to be understanding the sheer amount of variables in play here, and the effect that they have been having on the odds all week and more. this is not a normal election. and looking back at previous elections is not necessarily a good indication of how this will play out.
 
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odds update:

Clinton: 1.44 (-227)
Trump: 3.3 (+230)
 
Trump +175 on 5d

edit: it's +275
 
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Sham5916910 said:
Is all the value on Trump there? Feel like im missing out here.
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I'm looking at it from a more short term angle than most for trading the markets, but hard to tell atm as the odds are in flux and we haven't seen today's polls yet, obviously there was definite value on trump over the last couple months as many ITD have proven

rille31 said:
Trump +175 on 5d
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free money if you have 5d and the exchange
 
waiguoren said:
Is there any point to betting NOT Hillary at this point? Unless NOT Hillary and Trump are the same line, I would bet Trump at this point.
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They are close enough to the same im taking the safer option. Already have money on trump +500
 
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/43526

the cover up goes deeper, newest wikileak drops reveal clinton's private server had private accounts for several key members of her team including Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills, Philippe Reines, Jake Sullivan and Monica Hanley, and sid blumenthal not just hillary.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Is all the value on Trump there? Feel like im missing out here.
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The only thing that I will say is do not look at betting on politics the same way that you'd bet on a fight. If you have a fighter lose a decision 48-47 at +250 or whatever, you will probably feel good about your bet. You need to look at politics a bit differently. If a political favorite wins at as low as 1% or 2%, it doesn't necessarily mean the other candidate had a great chance of winning.

Say you set a threshold of 2%. Ask yourself this - what is Hillary's chance of winning > 2%, between 1-2%, or between 0-1%? Now compare those to Trump at those same percentages. I think you'll have a lot of people celebrating a good play on Trump if Hillary only wins between 1-2%, and that's just a fallacy. I think Trump's most likely scenario would be the slimmest of margins (0-1%) while Hillary's greatest chance is likely between 1-2% and she still has a greater chance at the 0-1% margin. I also think >2% is a real possibility.
 
Oblivian said:
The only thing that I will say is do not look at betting on politics the same way that you'd bet on a fight. If you have a fighter lose a decision 48-47 at +250 or whatever, you will probably feel good about your bet. You need to look at politics a bit differently. If a political favorite wins at as low as 1% or 2%, it doesn't necessarily mean the other candidate had a great chance of winning.

Say you set a threshold of 2%. Ask yourself this - what is Hillary's chance of winning > 2%, between 1-2%, or between 0-1%? Now compare those to Trump at those same percentages. I think you'll have a lot of people celebrating a good play on Trump if Hillary only wins between 1-2%, and that's just a fallacy. I think Trump's most likely scenario would be the slimmest of margins (0-1%) while Hillary's greatest chance is likely between 1-2% and she still has a greater chance at the 0-1% margin. I also think >2% is a real possibility.
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what are you basing the assertion that people will be celebrating a good play on trump if he loses between 1-2% on? your right about the difference between betting on different events ofc, and I think a lot of people ITT are aware of this.
 
Not disagreeing with Oblivians breakdown, he clearly knows more about this than me, but surely the constantly developing and escalating news on Clinton has to add some value to Trump? I'm genuinely curious if she'll make it to the election at this rate. I've never seen wikileaks lie about information they have, and supposedly we are still going to get Clinton's deleted emails from them which are blatantly incriminating according to those in the know.
 
Roads55 said:
what are you basing the assertion that people will be celebrating a good play on trump if he loses between 1-2% on? your right about the difference between betting on different events ofc, and I think a lot of people ITT are aware of this.
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This is why I don't post here anymore. Is it really that hard to figure out? Read #913 and #923.
 
Oblivian said:
This is why I don't post here anymore. Is it really that hard to figure out? Read #913 and #923.
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I don't think your accounting for the anomaly that is this event in regard to the polls. you can't rule out the possibility of clinton's campaign nosediving in light of certain revelations and the odds reflect that. do they reflect it too much? sure possibly, I think ppl are just being cautious as this is such a strange event happening right now made even more bizarre when you bet on it.

I can't speak for @SBJJ but that statement is fairly ambiguous and in a way 4% isn't a huge victory(obviously in political terms it is) but a 4% difference of the vote purely in numerical terms isn't that much.

I'm sure lots of people would welcome you posting more as apart from 1 or 2 idiots we have had some good discussions and info in here which your more than welcome to take part in. this is a relatively new thread and as such a lot of people including myself who in no way claim to be political experts are learning a lot about the whole debacle while looking at it through gambling terms (which obviously differ from purely political terms) and a lot people ITT are making money as a result, or at least in a position to free-roll. where there is chaos there is opportunity and there will be times in the next week in which there will be some very good lines.

hopefully we can extend this thread in the future to a general political one as there seems to be interest in other elections/political bet's also. as long as we don't attract any war-roomers that is.
 
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Joseph Budden said:
Not disagreeing with Oblivians breakdown, he clearly knows more about this than me, but surely the constantly developing and escalating news on Clinton has to add some value to Trump? I'm genuinely curious if she'll make it to the election at this rate. I've never seen wikileaks lie about information they have, and supposedly we are still going to get Clinton's deleted emails from them which are blatantly incriminating according to those in the know.
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Ultimately we don't know the outcome. There are so many variables that betting a dog at 2-1 or 3-1 in what will be a close result is fine IMO.
 
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