Political Betting Thread

[LEMONZEST]

Believe it or not, I think those two things are part of his allure. A section of America is sick of your stereotypical lying, fraudulent politician and Hilary Clinton is literally the poster child for that type of politician in every way.

But yeah he'll probably lose. They both are disgusting, whatever

I get it. We are all sick of the smooth talking politicians lying to us. However, Trump is still just not the guy to lead the US. Hopefully down the road another straight talking no nonsense candidate will surface that has more credibility. I dig Jesse Ventura but I think he is too counterculture to win.

 

[SBJJ]

I get it. We are all sick of the smooth talking politicians lying to us. However, Trump is still just not the guy to lead the US. Hopefully down the road another straight talking no nonsense candidate will surface that has more credibility. I dig Jesse Ventura but I think he is too counterculture to win.

Just imagine what the Hillary machine would do to Ventura. They'd annihilate him.

Americans say they want a "straight shooter". But a good portion of the population just wants to hear that everything is ok and we don't have any serious problems.

 

[SBJJ]

i would say a bet on Trump at this point should be small and should be in the hopes that the lines tighten up. Not a whole lot of time left.

But it's still not a bad bet. +500 is crazy when u consider the swings in polling we have seen.

 

[SBJJ]

Please do your research if you are planning on a Trump win bet. There is a reason he's +500 and all election forecasts have him at 8-15% chance of winning. Republicans are at an electorate disadvantage right out the gate and he's getting torched in swing states.

Wisconsin +12
Minnesota +5
Michigan +6 - +13 (iffy polling)
Ohio Tie
Virginia +9
Pennsylvania +4
Florida +4
Nevada +7
Colorado +8
North Carolina +2
Iowa is all over place

He has to win the majority of these without losing states that usually go red but are in play this year (Arizona, Utah, Georgia etc).

That is a hole too deep even at +500.

U sure he has to win the majority of the states u listed?

 

[waiguoren]

U sure he has to win the majority of the states u listed?

Of course not. You can throw out MI, WI, MN, VA and still leave him with multiple paths to victory.

If he wins, I think he will take NC, OH, FL, NV, IA, AZ, UT, GA. Then he would need one of CO or NH to win. Not out of the question even though it looks difficult given last week's polling. I expect the numbers to tighten up over the next two weeks.

 

[waiguoren]

If we filter based on polls' past performance, Trump looks way better the the polling average indicates.

 

[SBJJ]

Of course not. You can throw out MI, WI, MN, VA and still leave him with multiple paths to victory.

If he wins, I think he will take NC, OH, FL, NV, IA, AZ, UT, GA. Then he would need one of CO or NH to win. Not out of the question even though it looks difficult given last week's polling. I expect the numbers to tighten up over the next two weeks.

Threw another 100 on IA.

I think NV is gonna be tough for Trump

 

[Barkus]

400 pound hacker Kim Dotcom tweeted in July "What if HC email server was hacked? What if all deleted HC emails are released on October 26th? Happy Birthday?"

 

[ninjadeathcult]

I'm about $300 deep so far on this election (which is a lot for me)

$200 on Trump to win (average odds of +400 , I was a bit early in betting)

$50 on Trump to win the popular vote at +480 locked in just now.

$50 on DT +49.5 electoral college votes handicap +275

All of my bets were made on Betfair which has had over $100,000,000 matched so far which is the largest market ever on Betfair I believe (2012 election was 40 mill pounds and I think Brexit was even more).

Will see what happens with the lines closer to the election but may well add more if the odds improve (the conspiratard in me is expecting widespread media reports that DT doesn't stand a chance just prior to the election)

I believe a major Paradigm shift is happening in the world with the widespread rejection of Liberalism growing.

 

[KP6982]

One of Trump's better polls last week was the ABC/Wapo poll where he was only down 4. New poll today has him down 12.

Real Clear Politics also moved Texas to a toss-up. Not buying that.

 

[mkess101]

Just my opinion, but Trump +500 has zero value right now, even if it's just to plan to try to last minute hedge. Unless you have some sort of amazing insider knowledge verifying that really bad things are going to be released about Hillary, Trumps odds are >10% to win and there's not enough bettors that think otherwise to be able to have any confidence odds will shift in Trump's favor.

He's going to get thrashed in this election too. By a godawful candidate imho. Both the popular vote and the electoral votes are going to be lopsided.

 

[waiguoren]

One of Trump's better polls last week was the ABC/Wapo poll where he was only down 4. New poll today has him down 12.

Incorrect. +12 is the ABC News Tracking Poll. Different poll, different methodology.

 

[waiguoren]

Just my opinion, but Trump +500 has zero value right now, even if it's just to plan to try to last minute hedge. Unless you have some sort of amazing insider knowledge verifying that really bad things are going to be released about Hillary, Trumps odds are >10% to win and there's not enough bettors that think otherwise to be able to have any confidence odds will shift in Trump's favor.

He's going to get thrashed in this election too. By a godawful candidate imho. Both the popular vote and the electoral votes are going to be lopsided.

Disagree. I think Clinton is the rightful favorite but Trump could still pull this off.

 

[mkess101]

Disagree. I think Clinton is the rightful favorite but Trump could still pull this off.

To be fair, I've looked into it a bit but not as in depth as you have with polling, etc. It really feels like in the end it's not going to end up even being close. Clinton getting endorsements from places that haven't endorsed Dems in 75 years, etc. I know it's for sure up for debate how much that matters, but call it a gut feeling I have that in the end we'll look back and see this was mostly a foregone conclusion.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Just my opinion, but Trump +500 has zero value right now, even if it's just to plan to try to last minute hedge. Unless you have some sort of amazing insider knowledge verifying that really bad things are going to be released about Hillary, Trumps odds are >10% to win and there's not enough bettors that think otherwise to be able to have any confidence odds will shift in Trump's favor.

He's going to get thrashed in this election too. By a godawful candidate imho. Both the popular vote and the electoral votes are going to be lopsided.

Agreed. betting trump is basically counting on some unkown coming into play. be it her health or another monster scandal. Trump wont go down quietly tho so we may seem some desperate measures a la house of cards...

 

[Scythe]

Real Clear Politics also moved Texas to a toss-up. Not buying that.

I actually think Clinton could take Texas just because of the number of enemies Trump has made there, Hispanics, combined with it having some of the fastest growing cities in the country.

I don't adore the bet because the odds have shifted already, but it's not a bad red state for her to steal. I would definitely hit it if it were back at +500ish (and wish it were at standard deep red state odds).

 

[waiguoren]

I actually think Clinton could take Texas just because of the number of enemies Trump has made there, Hispanics, combined with it having some of the fastest growing cities in the country.

I don't adore the bet because the odds have shifted already, but it's not a bad red state for her to steal. I would definitely hit it if it were back at +500ish (and wish it were at standard deep red state odds).

I might consider +500 as well

 

[SBJJ]

I might consider +500 as well

I hit it @ +480

 

[Joseph Budden]

Question from a politic noob, but how much credence can you lend to polls? How much of the population do they reflect?

 

[waiguoren]

Question from a politic noob, but how much credence can you lend to polls? How much of the population do they reflect?

You might look at the polls from the last election. Some of them, such as RAND (now LA Times), IBD and Google Consumer Survey were highly accurate. Others used questionable methodology and had bad results.

As for their sampling of the population, most purchase lists of phone numbers from professional databanks and then robocall. Probably solid coverage, although some like Emerson still are not calling cell phones.

The question of accuracy should then come down to weighting. If a caller says he never voted before but is voting Trump this time, how much weight do you give to his answer? Most polls will not consider him a likely voter. To me, this represents a big unknown in this election. Are the hidden Trump voters a major factor? If so, most polls will be off.