Political Betting Thread

By the way, I made a 4-year sig bet with a guy in the War Room. If Clinton's popular vote margin is <=6.4%, I win. Feeling good about that one.

I also have a sig bet that I can predict the outcomes of 3 swing states more accurately than Nate Silver. I'm 50/50 on that one but excited about it.
 
mkess101 said:
To be fair, I've looked into it a bit but not as in depth as you have with polling, etc. It really feels like in the end it's not going to end up even being close. Clinton getting endorsements from places that haven't endorsed Dems in 75 years, etc. I know it's for sure up for debate how much that matters, but call it a gut feeling I have that in the end we'll look back and see this was mostly a foregone conclusion.
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A bet on Trump is a bet on the chance that the paradigm has shifted in the 'what is typically good is bad' direction (similar to the Brexit voting, which was getting hated on from every angle and was condemned by most mainstream entities, and was a 5 to 1 dog at one point). If it has, then mainstream endorsements, even non-Democratic ones, will actually hurt Clinton.

I'm not going big, but I would not be shocked to see Trump win. For me the debates were like hearing a ton about a hyped prospect and how there's no way they can lose, but then watching the actual tape and being disappointed to the point where fading them is the obvious choice. Maybe politics is different, but my biggest scores in MMA have been doing this.
 
weedreference said:
A bet on Trump is a bet on the chance that the paradigm has shifted in the 'what is typically good is bad' direction (similar to the Brexit voting, which was getting hated on from every angle and was condemned by most mainstream entities, and was a 5 to 1 dog at one point). If it has, then mainstream endorsements, even non-Democratic ones, will actually hurt Clinton.

I'm not going big, but I would not be shocked to see Trump win. For me the debates were like hearing a ton about a hyped prospect and how there's no way they can lose, but then watching the actual tape and being disappointed to the point where fading them is the obvious choice. Maybe politics is different, but my biggest scores in MMA have been doing this.
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Hyped prospect is Clinton in this case?

I agree with your analysis, by the way.
 
weedreference said:
A bet on Trump is a bet on the chance that the paradigm has shifted in the 'what is typically good is bad' direction (similar to the Brexit voting, which was getting hated on from every angle and was condemned by most mainstream entities, and was a 5 to 1 dog at one point). If it has, then mainstream endorsements, even non-Democratic ones, will actually hurt Clinton.

I'm not going big, but I would not be shocked to see Trump win. For me the debates were like hearing a ton about a hyped prospect and how there's no way they can lose, but then watching the actual tape and being disappointed to the point where fading them is the obvious choice. Maybe politics is different, but my biggest scores in MMA have been doing this.
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Definitely possible. I think with the Brexit situation you had a lot of Brits that basically said "Why the F do we need all these other countries (and the headaches that go along with being this economically tied to them)"? You are 100% right in the coverage though.

I think too many Americans are just scared of how unpredictable Trump could be. Some embrace if for sure (a lot apparently). Just not enough to win him this election or even come close imo. But no guarantee of course, I could be wrong.
 
waiting for trump to drift a little before I green out, Im surprised the lines are pretty much the same as they have been for a couple weeks now, I assume they are waiting for the last round of polls etc. the debates have had little affect on the price other than a small uptake on trump after the second one
 
waiguoren said:
Hyped prospect is Clinton in this case?

I agree with your analysis, by the way.
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Yeah... based on what I heard about the debates I expected her to make him look like a fool (as I said in a previous post, I live in a very liberal place), but my visceral reaction was more against her dismissive attitude than his shenanigans.
 
mkess101 said:
Definitely possible. I think with the Brexit situation you had a lot of Brits that basically said "Why the F do we need all these other countries (and the headaches that go along with being this economically tied to them)"? You are 100% right in the coverage though.

I think too many Americans are just scared of how unpredictable Trump could be. Some embrace if for sure (a lot apparently). Just not enough to win him this election or even come close imo. But no guarantee of course, I could be wrong.
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yeah agreed, although there were plenty that just said fuck it without any reasoning too lol. it's certainly a possibility that the late surge in the leave campaign caused by a lot of ppl who weren't factored into the polls, could also be replicated in the election too, I think that's pretty much what's dictating the price atm
 
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Havent been reading up on this thread but it seems super in depth. Is the consensus HIlary winning? bc I honestly cant see Trump winning this
 
waiguoren said:
Read carefully. This is the inaugural ABC News 2016 tracking poll. They are comparing the results of two different polls, which is misleading.
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Huh, I just like looking at the pictures. No idea why they would present it like that. Thanks for clarifying.
 
Man, with this UFC break one of the way i've been spending my time is educating myself a little bit on these candidates. Hoping Trump wins. Any potential of going to war with Russia, which Hilary brings to the table, is all I need to be scared. Nevermind all the other fraudulent shit, and lord knows their is a ton of it
 
iGnP said:
Havent been reading up on this thread but it seems super in depth. Is the consensus HIlary winning? bc I honestly cant see Trump winning this
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Consensus is that Clinton is the favorite. Some people see value on Trump at wonderful odds, others say no value.

At Trump +600, I think there is value.
 
I know this isn't about the betting aspect of this election, but I think this movie poster sums up this election perfectly for the American people:

upload_2016-10-25_20-11-24.jpeg
 
Edit: double
 
Edit: triple
 
Joseph Budden said:
Man, with this UFC break one of the way i've been spending my time is educating myself a little bit on these candidates. Hoping Trump wins. Any potential of going to war with Russia, which Hilary brings to the table, is all I need to be scared. Nevermind all the other fraudulent shit, and lord knows their is a ton of it
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This topic is not getting near the play in the media it should. I'm amazed as it seems the media is almost egging the conflict with Russia on. I'm speechless as to what is happening in America with the media. Obviously no one wants a war with Russia. But this talk towards Russia from the Left & the media is borderline frightening. She actually had a reporter ask her if she thought Russia might attempt a terrorist attack on the US to influence the election. She did that laugh and head bob and then proceeded to say we need to look out for that.

WTF. When did the left become the party of War & Big Money. Oh wait, both parties always have been.

And if Russia is OK with boogeyman Putin. Why do we fucking care.
 
It's happening! The 400 pound hacker looks to be good on his word. I'm adding to my Trump bets.

 
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