Political Betting Thread

[SBJJ]

Assuming that's the true spread, I have to think Trump is going to win Nevada. If she only has a +2 lead after all that crap, Trump will be able to bridge the gap before election day. Any odds on Trump wins Nevada?

Yea. He's like +200

 

[rille31]

nevada +235 5d

 

[waiguoren]

Would probably want to see a few more NV polls before hitting

 

[SBJJ]

 

[SBJJ]

It's just a matter if the polls snap back to where they were before the tape leak, or at least somewhat. Usually state polls lag behind the Nationals. So maybe we can see the national polls tighten and still get juicy lines on states like AZ, NV & IA

 

[waiguoren]

It's just a matter if the polls snap back to where they were before the tape leak, or at least somewhat. Usually state polls lag behind the Nationals. So maybe we can see the national polls tighten and still get juicy lines on states like AZ, NV & IA

Nah, those polls are mostly too old. Trump could be behind by 6 in NV right now.

 

[SBJJ]

Nah, those polls are mostly too old. Trump could be behind by 6 in NV right now.

Yea. I knew what u meant. Just throwing them out there to show the perspective that he was ahead and now behind

 

[SBJJ]

There is also a marijuana initiative in Arizona that could bring out some voters for the prez election that normally do not vote

 

[SBJJ]

Nah, those polls are mostly too old. Trump could be behind by 6 in NV right now.

Exactly. Was the same reason I was trying to find a possible trend with the newer national polls as opposed to the ones taken right after the tape leak. Was not trying to offend anyone by doing so. Sorry if it looked like I was cheerleading Trump

 

[waiguoren]

@SBJJ

I think you were correct. The freeroll will probably still be available. New ABC/Wapo poll has Clinton +4 nationally. She was +2 before the 1st debate, which was a high point for Trump.

Everyone was expecting much better for Clinton.

 

[waiguoren]

I think I should have stuck with my original advice to myself. Don't discount anyone, even Donald Trump, when that person is running against one of the weakest candidates of the modern era.

 

[waiguoren]

"Among registered voters, Trump is seen only somewhat more unfavorably than Clinton, 63 percent to her 57 percent."

From the new poll.

 

[waiguoren]

There is also a marijuana initiative in Arizona that could bring out some voters for the prez election that normally do not vote

I guess they will break for Johnson.

 

[SBJJ]

@SBJJ

I think you were correct. The freeroll will probably still be available. New ABC/Wapo poll has Clinton +4 nationally. She was +2 before the 1st debate, which was a high point for Trump.

Everyone was expecting much better for Clinton.

Yup. Just saw this poll. Looks to be a trend. Looks like the polls are settling back to where they were with Clinton at a slight lead or neck and neck. We will have to see if it translates to the betting lines.

But I am going to hit Trump AZ and probably IA & NV

 

[SBJJ]

Man. So many opportunities one could have bet Trump and then free rolled later. A shame that discussions were met with hostility. Many could have made some money.

One takeaway. When some guys are screaming your bet is stupid. Bet more!

 

[SBJJ]

Trump now +1 LA Times. Essentially unchanged

 

[SBJJ]

NBC poll has Clinton up 10

 

[SBJJ]

Waig. U familiar with the NBC poll. I'm reading some pretty shady stuff about it

 

[Roads55]

Lol ^ at a hedge opportunity being the sole reason for a decision to place a bet.

serious question here.

why not?

I have literally done this thousands of times on thousands of different markets.
If you are in a position where your bet represents better value than the current line, and you think the line is volatile enough to where it speaks to your best interest to hedge at that current time for maximum value and guarantee profit, if that was your intention from the start then to me that constitutes a good bet..

It's known as "dutching" if you use bookmakers, or "trading" if you use exchanges to guarantee profit. and a lot of people including most who actually do win money betting in the long term do this exclusively or incorporate it into their model.
knowing when to hedge your bet's is an extremely important skill to learn if you want to maximise your profit in the long run, lot's of rookies don't do this very well. Lot's of people hedge but often lose value on the picks they hedge with by taking comparatively poor odds/juiced bookie lines, or hedging at the wrong point in time amongst many other things

 

[waiguoren]

Waig. I'm looking at AZ. Now Trump is the dog as a recent poll came out showing Clinton up by 1. This poll was right after the tape leak. I tend to think the newer poll will once again show trump slightly ahead.

My main concern is it really seems most the media has gone full blown scorched earth. And in that case maybe nothing is truly safe to bet on.

odds?

I would be a bit surprised if Clinton takes AZ.