Political Betting Thread

[waiguoren]

Yeah I realize my write in won't count. It's just symbolic anyway.

How can something that doesn't exist be symbolic? No one will see it or know about it, except for the poll station worker who nullifies the vote.

If you want to do something symbolic, why not choose a write-in candidate who has declared in WI? I'm sure there are a bunch. Then your vote for said candidate will show up in the final tally.

In Maryland we have about 15 of them. Their info is on the Board of Elections website. Most are lunatics. I'm thinking about voting for a candidate named Paul Adams, who is registered as a write-in candidate in Maryland. If I vote for him I'm sure I will be the only person in the state who votes for him. When the final Maryland vote tally comes out, it will show

Trump w
Clinton x
Johnson y
Stein z
Adams 1

Now that's symbolic.

 

[mkess101]

How can something that doesn't exist be symbolic? No one will see it or know about it, except for the poll station worker who nullifies the vote.

If you want to do something symbolic, why not choose a write-in candidate who has declared in WI? I'm sure there are a bunch. Then your vote for said candidate will show up in the final tally.

In Maryland we have about 15 of them. Their info is on the Board of Elections website. Most are lunatics. I'm thinking about voting for a candidate named Paul Adams, who is registered as a write-in candidate in Maryland. If I vote for him I'm sure I will be the only person in the state who votes for him. When the final Maryland vote tally comes out, it will show

Trump w
Clinton x
Johnson y
Stein z
Adams 1

Now that's symbolic.

Maybe I will do that. The symbolism was really for my own benefit and then anyone who bothered to ask who I voted for (maybe a few people total) I could tell that I voted for a qualified candidate even though it didn't count.

To me voting for someone who can't win is the same regardless of whether my vote is actually counted. Paul Ryan has the same chance of getting WI electoral votes as any of the registered write in candidates.

 

[waiguoren]

To me voting for someone who can't win is the same regardless of whether my vote is actually counted. Paul Ryan has the same chance of getting WI electoral votes as any of the registered write in candidates.

Are you saying it's somehow more meaningful to vote for someone who has a chance of winning as opposed to someone who can't win? To me that's deeply irrational. Your vote will not be the one to push the winner over the line. The probability of that, even in a swing state, is vanishingly small.

 

[mkess101]

Are you saying it's somehow more meaningful to vote for someone who has a chance of winning as opposed to someone who can't win? To me that's deeply irrational. Your vote will not be the one to push the winner over the line. The probability of that, even in a swing state, is vanishingly small.

Meaning does a vote in this particular election for either Trump or Clinton carry more weight than a vote for someone else? I don't know. From a purely mathematical standpoint no, of course one vote doesn't matter. But obviously what happens in a conversation such as this is you start going down the road of asking exactly how many individual votes actually matter. And of course it varies by state, there's a ton of variables, etc. If you vote for Clinton and she wins your state your vote didn't gain her those electoral college votes. Your vote AND the other hundreds of thousands of votes for her did. It just becomes an individual vs group (collection of individuals) discussion. Kinda pointless imo.

Essentially if we argue that one vote really makes no difference regardless of who it's cast for, there's no point in me voting at all (assuming I know this will not influence any others who plan to vote in a way that would lead them not to). And the reality is, there really isn't much point to me doing it. Other than the fact that it psychologically will make me feel better to leave the office for half an hour or so, write in someone I think is worthy, and then go back to work. And for me, that's good enough. To someone else, it might seen like a giant waste of time, and I certainly wouldn't try to convince them otherwise.

 

[waiguoren]

Meaning does a vote in this particular election for either Trump or Clinton carry more weight than a vote for someone else? I don't know. From a purely mathematical standpoint no, of course one vote doesn't matter. But obviously what happens in a conversation such as this is you start going down the road of asking exactly how many individual votes actually matter. And of course it varies by state, there's a ton of variables, etc. If you vote for Clinton and she wins your state your vote didn't gain her those electoral college votes. Your vote AND the other hundreds of thousands of votes for her did. It just becomes an individual vs group (collection of individuals) discussion. Kinda pointless imo.

Essentially if we argue that one vote really makes no difference regardless of who it's cast for, there's no point in me voting at all (assuming I know this will not influence any others who plan to vote in a way that would lead them not to). And the reality is, there really isn't much point to me doing it. Other than the fact that it psychologically will make me feel better to leave the office for half an hour or so, write in someone I think is worthy, and then go back to work. And for me, that's good enough. To someone else, it might seen like a giant waste of time, and I certainly wouldn't try to convince them otherwise.

Yeah I think you hit the nail on the head. The act of voting is usually irrational. But there is some non-trivial chance that your vote for a declared write-in candidate will influence someone else to look into his candidacy. I mean if the results look like

Trump 55 million
Clinton 58 million
mkess 1

Then a lot of people will start to ask, "who is this mkess guy"?

 

[EzFlyer]

Hey, guys.. haven't actually looked in this thread for a while.. the main point of the thread is to discuss betting odds... Let's keep it civil with personal political viewpoints

 

[bruthead]

Anyone like Evan McMullin to win Utah? +700 on the Eurobooks.

 

[SBJJ]

Wow. Check out real clear politics. Latest 2 national polls have it tied and Trump up by 2. Yet Trump stands at +500

 

[SBJJ]

Man. Might have to hit Trump again because another hedge opportunity should be coming

 

[Jack Scrapper]

Lol ^ at a hedge opportunity being the sole reason for a decision to place a bet.

we all gotten those private messages from the Scrapper, the guy is nuts

fyi Rille, I can attest likes to send racist meme's to others through Pm, including a very offensive one depicting the face of a Mexican man. If I can recall correctly, it made some joke like mexicans can't compete in the olympics.

So you might understand if I wasn't pleased to receive that crap. He really seems like those brexit clowns over there in Europe, it was very clear from early on his support/belief in trump winning the election meant shit.

 

[rille31]

Lol ^ at a hedge opportunity being the sole reason for a decision to place a bet.



fyi Rille, I can attest likes to send racist meme's to others through Pm, including a very offensive one depicting the face of a Mexican man. If I can recall correctly, it made some joke like mexicans can't compete in the olympics.

So you might understand if I wasn't pleased to receive that crap. He really seems like those brexit clowns over there in Europe, it was very clear from early on his support/belief in trump winning the election meant shit.

lol I dont even care about trump, I think he is just as nuts as you are

you should vote for him instead of trolling on the www

 

[Jack Scrapper]

Does anyone other than these two trump nuthuggers think I've been trolling for a single instant at any point throughout this entire thread? I steered people away from a bad Trump bet, who can deny that?

I'm not a troll, don't know wtf you are talking about buddy. why don't you get off the internet sometime, you reply in like less than 5 minutes, easily. get a life

 

[SBJJ]

Does anyone other than these two trump nuthuggers think I've been trolling for a single instant at any point throughout this entire thread? I steered people away from a bad Trump bet, who can deny that?

I'm not a troll, don't know wtf you are talking about buddy. why don't you get off the internet sometime, you reply in like less than 5 minutes, easily. get a life

Yea. U seem to have a few fans in here, but hey, to each their own.

U actually steered people away from a nice free roll opportunity. And LOL at u calling anyone a nut hugger on anything u hateful child beater.

 

[SBJJ]

Anyone like Evan McMullin to win Utah? +700 on the Eurobooks.

I think it's a possibility for sure. The books could be all wrong on this stuff just like Brexit because u have complete nut job wife beaters like Scrapper screaming at the top of his voice that everyone is racist and hateful. Then they go home and beat their kids for simple disagreements. Sad piece of shits these cowards are.

 

[Jack Scrapper]

Sad piece of shits these cowards are.

Do you have a black friend, sbjj?

You've thrown around plenty slants and insults to myself over the last page and I can tell your jimmies are rustled. America is great already, you old bitter man. you shouldn't go running to your moderator friend from outside this forum to come and disable my posting abilities here with the personal insinuations you insist on typing about me.

 

[SBJJ]

U have a tin foil hat on? I've ran to no one tough guy. Unlike your poor wife and kids. I will fight back.

U don't like it much when people fight back against u, do u? Then I suggest u keep your bullying to women and children. And in your fragile case, u best make it really small women.

 

[SBJJ]

Oh. And I have a few good black friends and u should hear us talk. You'd think we were all racist. It's the way guys talk. Get out and socialize with a few real dudes.

 

[Jack Scrapper]

U have a tin foil hat on? I've ran to no one tough guy. Unlike your poor wife and kids. I will fight back.

U don't like it much when people fight back against u, do u? Then I suggest u keep your bullying to women and children. And in your fragile case, u best make it really small women.

We've found a nice poster in this one, forum. I look forward to all the non-braggadocios positive contributions he will provide for us soon (other than his Trump-touting, of course which you've seen these 2 clowns have recently started denying).

He lies too. don't deny running to your outside moderator friend and complaining when you couldn't take the heat, glass-house dweller.

 

[SBJJ]

Well looksy at the e mail I got...

 

[SBJJ]

When & Where Tough guy