Political Betting Thread

[SBJJ]

Just don't take out this frustration on the wife and the little ones.

 

[Slohog]

Wow. Check out real clear politics. Latest 2 national polls have it tied and Trump up by 2. Yet Trump stands at +500

Trump has been consistently ahead of tied in a few of them (LA times and something, maybe Rasmussen?). I think they have a slightly different way of doing the polls. When I read about it it seemed like their way might be good, but on the other hand I don't like to trust outliners and I haven't done a ton of research.

I think +500 might have a slight bit of value but I'm not at all as certain on that as I was in +350 a few weeks ago. Really thought he'd win the debates harder.

 

[SBJJ]

Here are fridays polls

 

[SBJJ]

Something is just off

 

[waiguoren]

Like I said in a previous post, I think the Clinton people messed up the timing with the recording release. They should have waited until the week before the election. This could give Trump a chance to rebound. I still wouldn't take +500 though. Just saying I wouldn't be shocked if that bet cashes.

As for the polls, LA Times's methodology is suspect. They weight based on the respondents' self-reported 2012 vote. People lie or misremember their previous votes, leading to a bias toward the non-incumbent party.

Rasmussen is not very transparent with their polling. All we can say is they did a poor job in 2012.

 

[SBJJ]

Didn't LA Times have the closest prediction last prez election?

I watched something where supposedly the way they poll was possibly the best way of polling

 

[waiguoren]

Didn't LA Times have the closest prediction last prez election?

I watched something where supposedly the way they poll was possibly the best way of polling

From 538:

 

[KP6982]

Sure the LA times poll looks great without any context but they had Trump at +6 right after the 1st debate. He is self destructing right now and I don't think the lines are bouncing back enough for a free roll.

Fox of all places has Clinton +7 and most everywhere else has it between HC+5 - +10.

 

[SBJJ]

To put in context. Rasmussen had Clinton +5 on Tuesday, +4 Wednesday and Trump + 2 today.

The next few days polls could get interesting. u have to remember there is a larger group easily swayed here than is usual. Many will poll Clinton right after the tape leak but then poll Trump after it dies down.

 

[KP6982]

To put in context. Rasmussen had Clinton +5 on Tuesday, +4 Wednesday and Trump + 2 today.

The next few days polls could get interesting. u have to remember there is a larger group easily swayed here than is usual. Many will poll Clinton right after the tape leak but then poll Trump after it dies down.

You are cherry picking the only poll that currently shows that. There are a dozen other polls which are much more transparent showing the opposite.

And for whatever it's worth, Rasmussen had Romney +1 in 2012. 5+% off.

 

[waiguoren]

I think both of you could easily be correct. It could be that Trump regains some of the lost ground (perhaps the shift in Rasmussen is evidence of this), while still not being a good play at the current odds.

 

[waiguoren]

FWIW, I think P(Trump) is around .20 right now, so not much value at +500.

Didn't LA Times have the closest prediction last prez election?

I watched something where supposedly the way they poll was possibly the best way of polling

I didn't realize LA Times is the same poll as RAND from 2012. Yeah, one of the best.

 

[SBJJ]

You are cherry picking the only poll that currently shows that. There are a dozen other polls which are much more transparent showing the opposite.

And for whatever it's worth, Rasmussen had Romney +1 in 2012. 5+% off.

Can u name me the dozen other polls in the last 3 days u are referencing?

I'm not talking about polls done right after the leak. Im talking about ALL the polls done recently.

And LA Times is actually 1 of the best polls.

U seem to be arguing against something Im not even saying.

 

[SBJJ]

And actually Rasmussen had Clinton +7 on Monday. What I'm saying is some of these polls from Walk st Journal and Reuters taken right after the tape leak that showed Clinton up 10 very well could show her now up +4. I'm just trying to see if a possible free roll might be possible. I've got 2 already.

I appreciate any good feedback. Not saying I'm cherry picking when I'm posting all the most recent polls.

At this point just saying a bet on Trump seems to piss off some in here. Relax! It's a betting thread. And no way in hell anyone should even contemplate a -750 bet on Clinton here.

 

[KP6982]

Wow. You can't be in constant conflict in this thread and then tell someone else to relax. I've seen how any "discussion" with you goes in here and I'm not interested in doing that dance. You clearly have a very rudimentary understanding of statistics, polling and possibly politics so this a pointless exercise. Good luck with your bets. You won't get any further acknowledgement from me.

"If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day, you're the asshole"

 

[SBJJ]

God. How many ID's does Scrapper have? Sudden new ID's just to pop in here.

Anyway. Another 100 on Trump. I just think the line will improve in the next week. Strictly a free roll play. Hopefully

 

[EzFlyer]

gonna start handing out yellows if i see anyone else start any crapola, no matter who it is. i tire of waking up to see pm's about people in this thread, hehe. just discuss betitng odds for the politics -- no personal political agendas and no personal attacks. this is to no one in particular, because it applies to everyone going forward.

 

[SBJJ]

Latest Nevada poll Clinton up by 2

 

[waiguoren]

Latest Nevada poll Clinton up by 2

Assuming that's the true spread, I have to think Trump is going to win Nevada. If she only has a +2 lead after all that crap, Trump will be able to bridge the gap before election day. Any odds on Trump wins Nevada?

 

[SBJJ]

Waig. I'm looking at AZ. Now Trump is the dog as a recent poll came out showing Clinton up by 1. This poll was right after the tape leak. I tend to think the newer poll will once again show trump slightly ahead.

My main concern is it really seems most the media has gone full blown scorched earth. And in that case maybe nothing is truly safe to bet on.