Political Betting Thread

Jack Scrapper said:
As much as I'd love to take more money off of your hands other than the bets you are already gonna lose, whatever the fuck your name means, I don't need you to place the bets I want. Don't worry though, I can already tell your gonna Love the donald prices yet to come in the near future, so go ahead and drop more of your tiny betting fund into that vortex.

Don't think I've ever seen you win money on these boards on a posted bet. The republican base is absolutely tiny, when compared to the rest of the nation. See if you can wrap your mind around that.

It consists of almost entirely whites. Who are a minority. Compare that to the rest of the country, who loathe your friend donald. I think your lying to the board when you say "I don't support Trump," you Clearly want him to win. Or you'll say you're sitting on the Rep sticking point: 'oh anything's better than Hillary'.

Buddy if you want that buffoon to become effective leader of the world, and put the entire country down the drain, just so you can make some change in your pocket, then I have nothing I can tell you. So suck on that, and like it. wow some people are enormously dumb on these boards. Good luck with Donald trump winning the U.S presidential election.
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Why are you bringing politics into a betting thread?
 
Trump gave another of his new style speeches. This time is was about economics. I think he's hitting Clinton right where she is weakest. Very smart.

 
I'm seeing reports that Trump has narrowed his VP list to Christie and Gingrich. IMO these are terrible picks for him. They would do nothing to expand Trump's support.

The Clintons will choose their VP candidate very carefully to pluck an extra few percent of the voting population over to their side.
 
Ok I'm gonna contribute a bit now.

According to most sources I find the swing states are as follows (name/number of electoral votes):

Nevada: 6

Colorado: 9

Iowa: 6

Wisconsin: 10

Ohio: 18

Pennsylvania: 20

New Hampshire 4

Virginia: 13

North Carolina: 15

Florida: 29

Then I've looked at the polling in those states here: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states

Nevada and Ohio (24 votes) are reasonably even, Colorado (9 votes) are pro Trump and the rest (97 votes) are Clinton favoured, some of them by a lot. Given the votes from the "secure" states Trump has 191 votes and Clinton 217, whoever gets 270 votes or more wins. So unless Trump overperforms a lot Clinton wins. However, assuming Trump gets Nevada, Ohio and Colorado which he very well might with a decent performance he'll be at 224 votes which still leaves him 46 votes short of a presidency. In North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20) and Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4) Trump is around 5% behind but even if he wins those he'll be one vote short of the presidency, which means he'll have to pick up either Virginia (13) where he's around 7% behind or Florida (about 11% behind) somehow.

I'm fairly sure Trump needs to over preform a ton and/or the FBI needs to do something about Hillary for this to be exciting.

I also somewhat reluctantly agree that both Christie and Gingrich seems awful, with Gingrich slightly less so given that he's from Pennsylvania.

edit: the politico numbers seems to be different from the RealClearPolitics ones, anyone knows which one have a better spread of polls?
 
Slohog said:
Ok I'm gonna contribute a bit now.

According to most sources I find the swing states are as follows (name/number of electoral votes):

Nevada: 6

Colorado: 9

Iowa: 6

Wisconsin: 10

Ohio: 18

Pennsylvania: 20

New Hampshire 4

Virginia: 13

North Carolina: 15

Florida: 29

Then I've looked at the polling in those states here: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states

Nevada and Ohio (24 votes) are reasonably even, Colorado (9 votes) are pro Trump and the rest (97 votes) are Clinton favoured, some of them by a lot. Given the votes from the "secure" states Trump has 191 votes and Clinton 217, whoever gets 270 votes or more wins. So unless Trump overperforms a lot Clinton wins. However, assuming Trump gets Nevada, Ohio and Colorado which he very well might with a decent performance he'll be at 224 votes which still leaves him 46 votes short of a presidency. In North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20) and Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4) Trump is around 5% behind but even if he wins those he'll be one vote short of the presidency, which means he'll have to pick up either Virginia (13) where he's around 7% behind or Florida (about 11% behind) somehow.

I'm fairly sure Trump needs to over preform a ton and/or the FBI needs to do something about Hillary for this to be exciting.
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You're looking at head-to-head polls from only a particular moment in time, and it happens to be an abnormally bad moment for Trump.

For example, Trump outpolled Clinton in Florida for 9 months, from June to March. The polls starting switching as Clinton secured the nomination and Trump committed errors. Her current average lead there is only 3.4%.

I will be very surprised if Trump doesn't win Ohio and Pennsylvania based on the economic message.

I will give Clinton: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa (could easily go to Trump)

I will give Trump: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Carolina.

With this division, Trump gets 295 electoral votes and becomes the next president.

By the way, all my predictions will probably fail if Clinton picks Sanders to be her VP. That combination would probably be too difficult to overcome. Unfortunately for Trump, I see it as a likely choice since the Clintons are very smart when it comes to political calculations and Sanders wants power.
 
waiguoren said:
You're looking at head-to-head polls from only a particular moment in time, and it happens to be an abnormally bad moment for Trump.

For example, Trump outpolled Clinton in Florida for 9 months, from June to March. The polls starting switching as Clinton secured the nomination and Trump committed errors. Her current average lead there is only 3.4%.

I will be very surprised if Trump doesn't win Ohio and Pennsylvania based on the economic message.

I will give Clinton: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa (could easily go to Trump)

I will give Trump: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Carolina.

With this division, Trump gets 295 electoral votes and becomes the next president.

By the way, all my predictions will probably fail if Clinton picks Sanders to be her VP. That combination would probably be too difficult to overcome. Unfortunately for Trump, I see it as a likely choice since the Clintons are very smart when it comes to political calculations and Sanders wants power.
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Is there any indication that she may be leaning sanders? He berated her for months. They couldn't be more opposite in terms of everything sanders is fighting for. As a Bernie fan, he would lose some credibility in my eyes if he was on a ticket with Hillary.
 
edole said:
Is there any indication that she may be leaning sanders? He berated her for months. They couldn't be more opposite in terms of everything sanders is fighting for. As a Bernie fan, he would lose some credibility in my eyes if he was on a ticket with Hillary.
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Sanders was on one of the shows a few days ago, said he was involved in talks with Clinton about giving Sanders a position in her administration. Mostly speculation on my part. I have great respect for the ability of the Clintons to manipulate voters, and I think their calculations would tell them Sanders is the strongest pick.
 
kenCs said:
Trump is gonna sell America "Great America" when he gets serious. This guy is a magician salesman. People are tired of politicians.
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Well, he's going to have a great day today. The Loretta-Bill meetup is like something out of a Hollywood script. Is this reality?
 
For one of my bets to cash, I need Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. With Lynch now saying she will abide by whatever the FBI recommends, I am a little worried shit will hit the fan before the convention and the superdelegates will give it to Sanders.
 
Slohog said:
Ok I'm gonna contribute a bit now.


edit: the politico numbers seems to be different from the RealClearPolitics ones, anyone knows which one have a better spread of polls?
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I use a combination of RealClearPolitics and pollster.com. Between them you won't miss anything.
 
Clinton scheduled to meet with the FBI tomorrow.
 
waiguoren said:
I'm seeing reports that Trump has narrowed his VP list to Christie and Gingrich. IMO these are terrible picks for him. They would do nothing to expand Trump's support.

The Clintons will choose their VP candidate very carefully to pluck an extra few percent of the voting population over to their side.
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I agree with you. Maybe his campaign is thinking that a victory in NY and NJ would really help his chances. Problem is, even republicans in jersey are sick of Christie.

Newt Gingrich is unbelievably special.
 
edole said:
I agree with you. Maybe his campaign is thinking that a victory in NY and NJ would really help his chances. Problem is, even republicans in jersey are sick of Christie.

Newt Gingrich is unbelievably special.
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Exactly.

Christie is not a popular guy even in his home state. Plus he doesn't balance Trump well at all. Both are loud-mouthed angry types.

Gingrich is dirty. Why would you pick someone like him when running against "crooked" Hillary? Also the thing about Gingrich's divorce will just amplify the narrative that Trump and his friends are heartless and hate women.

Ben Carson would be an infinitely better choice. Calm and collected to balance loud and aggressive. Respected in the African-American community. Another outsider.
 
I still believe Castro will be Hillary's VP, with a major focus on untapping Hispanics against Trump. Hillary/Bernie have both left the option open but it would involve one side acceding to the demands of the other and that seems unlikely.

Christie/Gingrich are probably just "feint" choices so that the real pick looks that much better. I still don't agree on Carson as a pick despite your reasoning for him not being wrong; he's awful with a microphone and the more attention he gets, the less popular he becomes.
 
Scythe said:
I still believe Castro will be Hillary's VP, with a major focus on untapping Hispanics against Trump. Hillary/Bernie have both left the option open but it would involve one side acceding to the demands of the other and that seems unlikely.

Christie/Gingrich are probably just "feint" choices so that the real pick looks that much better. I still don't agree on Carson as a pick despite your reasoning for him not being wrong; he's awful with a microphone and the more attention he gets, the less popular he becomes.
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Castro is a conservative choice. I don't think she needs to do anything to get a huge majority of the latino vote.

You could be right about Carson. I just think he's way better than Gingrich/Christie.
 
Comey to address the media in 11 minutes. Media speculating it will be related to Clinton e-mail controversy. If they are right, this is a pivotal moment in the election season. If FBI recommends charges, Clinton is toast.
 
Comey said Clinton was "extremely careless" and left lots of classified information on an unsecured server. Much of that information was classified at the time of transmission and some of it was marked classified. Said she failed to submit over 1,000 work-related e-mails to the FBI despite saying publicly that she turned over all work-related e-mails. Also said there is no reason to believe she intentionally withheld these work related e-mails. Said there is no way to know if the server was hacked but it's certainly possible. Since they can't prove criminal intent, they are not recommending any charges.

I think this will have no effect on the polling.
 
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Ann Coulter made a good point in a recent column. If Trump picks an insider like Gingrich for VP, it will be the first huge error of his campaign. The main appeal of Trump is that he is anti-establishment. People want him because they feel he will blow up the system and build something new, less corrupt. Gingrich or another "insider" would make it seem like Trump didn't really care about that stuff.
 
Flynn would be a much better choice than Gingrich/Christie.

We should all hope that Pence doesn't get near the White House. He is an active opponent of online gambling.
 
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