Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

How much can you risk on that?

not a lot atm. most money is £2200 at 1.4, or £260 at 3.1 for "yes he will leave before 1st term over". no one wants to offer too many bets atm so there's big gaps between prices appart from very small money. probably just waiting for things to die down a bit. there's usually more available though. im avgeraging 1.9 on my bets for trump to see out the full term. just checked and matchbook still have a few hundred available at 1.507 which seems decent chance for a scalp.

 

[rev0lver]

Manafort pardon line is interesting. Reports are that everyone's telling him it's a terrible political move, but it's not like he's cared about that before and he keeps hinting at it

 

[waiguoren]

Manafort pardon line is interesting. Reports are that everyone's telling him it's a terrible political move, but it's not like he's cared about that before and he keeps hinting at it

That would be a really dumb political move. Probably dumber than firing Comey was.

not a lot atm. most money is £2200 at 1.4, or £260 at 3.1 for "yes he will leave before 1st term over". no one wants to offer too many bets atm so there's big gaps between prices appart from very small money. probably just waiting for things to die down a bit. there's usually more available though. im avgeraging 1.9 on my bets for trump to see out the full term. just checked and matchbook still have a few hundred available at 1.507 which seems decent chance for a scalp.

1.9 is a very good line, imo. I cap it closer to 1.3.

 

[Roads55]

@waiguoren i saw earlier betdsi have a couple political lines if your still looking for a US book with them.

 

[Roads55]

trump nearly down to 1.3 (-333) to see out a full term now, my current position is 4.2u to win 3u.

slowly but surely raising my win position and lowering my liability from scalping the market on betfair. it shortened a lot this week, odds are finally starting to adjust to a more realistic price.

trump specials:

trump to leave before end of 1st term: https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401
trump exit date: https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129097136

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

trump nearly down to 1.3 (-333) to see out a full term now, my current position is 4.2u to win 3u.

slowly but surely raising my win position and lowering my liability from scalping the market on betfair. it shortened a lot this week, odds are finally starting to adjust to a more realistic price.

It's a great bet, but the reason I've stayed away from political bets is the annoyance of having to wait a year or more to get the money back. A lot can happen to a book in a year, and I could also be using that money to make multiple bets in the meantime instead of having it tied up.

 

[Roads55]

there's a lot of political markets up at the moment with brexit looming and the 2020 us presidential race starting to heat up along with the primaries.

Brexit markets:

for bookmaker odds: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics

exchange odds:

UK to leave the eu by 29/3/19 : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
first to happen, brexit or theresa may to leave office of PM : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130939030
brexit date: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130856098
first to happen, brexit or general election: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138952650
eu referendum on brexit before 2020: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132100845
article 50 to be extended: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154028499
no deal brexit to happen: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153694387
a second vote of no confidence in the government in 2019: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153697106
smarkets brexit odds: https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/uk/brexit



US election markets:

euro books: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

5Dimes next president, democrat nominee, republican nominee markets: https://www.5dimes.eu/BbGameSelection.asp
next president betonline, US book:
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

republican 2020 nominee : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128999265
democrat 2020 nominee : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
next president: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
gender of next president : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131485565 tempted to request an "other" category as a joke
winning party : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128988348
nominee forecast: hhttps://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153132662
matchbook us election odds: https://www.matchbook.com/events/politics/us-politics
smarkets us election odds: https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/world/us-presidential-election-2020

 

[Roads55]

It's a great bet, but the reason I've stayed away from political bets is the annoyance of having to wait a year or more to get the money back. A lot can happen to a book in a year, and I could also be using that money to make multiple bets in the meantime instead of having it tied up.

yeah i agree, the only reason I focus a lot on it a lot is because i can remove/add money to my position on the exchange if i need it for mma or something else. also scalping the market helps lower the liability and the funds tied up. I do have a substantial part of my bankroll that i reserve for long term bets compared to many others here though as mma money gets recycled so quick and with LB being so consistent to make money i can generate additional money to my bankroll so that the amount tied up in long term bets becomes less important

 

[waiguoren]

Just bet on Sanders to win the nomination. $10k profit if it happens.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Just bet on Sanders to win the nomination. $10k profit if it happens.

RIP your money.

 

[waiguoren]

RIP your money.

Why?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Why?

The DNC screwed him out of the nomination in 2016. Sanders was fine with that, so long as he raised a bunch of money and raised his profile. What's going to change with him being 4 years older? Especially running against people who espouse the same socialist policies he has, which was the reason for his appeal versus Hillary, EXCEPT they're not straight old white guys.

If any straight old white guy is going to win, it's probably Biden, who has way more connections and power, especially from all the Obama loyalists, despite the whole #MeToo and philia problems.

 

[Roads55]

I don't rate biden's chances right now. he's too pervy. feels like harris is getting betting hype atm. I've been trading bernie's price from 5.1-4.6 for small proffit but im unsure if i want to leave money on him for a longer trade or outright bet. there's a long way to go yet, one guy im almost certain won't win is o'rourke, captain generic won't cut it in 2019.

 

[waiguoren]

The DNC screwed him out of the nomination in 2016. Sanders was fine with that, so long as he raised a bunch of money and raised his profile. What's going to change with him being 4 years older? Especially running against people who espouse the same socialist policies he has, which was the reason for his appeal versus Hillary, EXCEPT they're not straight old white guys.

If any straight old white guy is going to win, it's probably Biden, who has way more connections and power, especially from all the Obama loyalists, despite the whole #MeToo and philia problems.

Let's have an either/or sig bet on this. If Sanders wins, I win the bet. If Biden wins, you win the bet. If someone else wins, the bet is a push.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Let's have an either/or sig bet on this. If Sanders wins, I win the bet. If Biden wins, you win the bet. If someone else wins, the bet is a push.

I don't think Biden necessarily wins the nomination, either. I just think Sanders is a horrible bet at anything under about +1000.

 

[waiguoren]

I don't think Biden necessarily wins the nomination, either. I just think Sanders is a horrible bet at anything under about +1000.

I know. That's why the bet is a push if neither guy wins it.

You're saying Biden is more likely to be the nominee than Sanders. I'm saying you're wrong. A bet is the right way to settle that, with no one winning if neither guy gets it.

In?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Well this is interesting...

@PolarBearPaulVarelans

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I know. That's why the bet is a push if neither guy wins it.

You're saying Biden is more likely to be the nominee than Sanders. I'm saying you're wrong. A bet is the right way to settle that, with no one winning if neither guy gets it.

In?

Sure, why not? I think we most likely see a push, though.

 

[Roads55]

The DNC screwed him out of the nomination in 2016. Sanders was fine with that, so long as he raised a bunch of money and raised his profile. What's going to change with him being 4 years older? Especially running against people who espouse the same socialist policies he has, which was the reason for his appeal versus Hillary, EXCEPT they're not straight old white guys.

If any straight old white guy is going to win, it's probably Biden, who has way more connections and power, especially from all the Obama loyalists, despite the whole #MeToo and philia problems.

bernie does seem to be gaining momentum. other candidates are weaker than hillary was last time by far. bernie did pretty well on the fox town hall thing the other night too. his price does seem like there's a good chance it goes much lower at some point. gonna leave my small bet on him for now, and try to add at around 4.8-5.0.

 

[Roads55]

Democrats will be busy infighting for the nomination with each other by the time trump will have his campaign solidified and well prepared and importantly much more well funded that any other candidate on both sides so far. he's already raised $30 million which has gone under the radar so far. the black/hispanic vote should be much improved for him due to the improved wages and unemployment rate also, directly taking away from the democrat's target groups.

trump is currently 2.34 ish to be the next president. I put a couple units on him for a trade, i will try to bet against him at around 2.0 depending on how quickly the odds change over this year. may well add a couple more units if i have a good few weeks.