Xbox has a real chance at doing well. They can't beat sonys console sales but it doesn't matter because of pc game installs, cross gen games (Xbox one x and Xbox series game installs), gamepass, Xbox live, xcloud and console sales.
Sony has a gang of exclusives BUT I'm excited and optimistic about Microsoft's future.
I want to see what happens with obsidian, Microsoft only rpgs? Exclusive outer world sequels, never winter? And their rumored interest in buying wb games? That'd be be big. Imagine a DC gaming universe, a well designed Harry Potter game, Lego halo? What I like about the studios is that none of them are like Sony's studios. Sony first party exclusives tend to all be "cinematic experiences" with generic but inoffensive gameplay, beautiful visuals, overrated by critics etc. Horizon zero dawn being the exception and last of us PART TWO at least from what I've seen. (not counting jrpgs like final fantasy vii and persona because those are third party and fucking awesome). Obsidian and all the other properties seem to make more "gamey games"... Longer games with richly detailed worlds, rpg systems, less focus on "cinematics" and more on gameplay.. A la fallout new Vegas. I like that. And I think they should focus on that and NOT try the Sony route.
Another thing I think everyone is sleeping on is the power of nostalgia. I know they're bringing fable back but they're sleeping on super old school titles. I mean sure they have killer instinct, which I've always envied them over, but bring back battle toads, conker, banjo, golden eye 007, golden axe, virtual fighter, brutal legend, monkey Island, f-zero, time splitters, bring back mercenaries and fix it, bring back knight of the old republic since obsidian made the second one and bring some retro Sega games since Noone seems to be buying them. Revive them make sequels modernize them but keep them G like Capcom did megaman. You can't sit on halo and gears. In fact if I were them I wouldn't even focus on gears. I'd focus on getting at least half of the titles above and securing them for Microsoft and maybe licensing them out to competition at a fee or alternatively just keeping them exclusive to xbox, gamepass and pc. Xbox needs to bring back retro games and "b" games whilst Sony focuses on their "aaa" games. Also bring ninja gaiden back please.
I hate exclusives but I think Sony needs a dose of reality. It's fucked up that Xbox is so willing to give players backward compatibility, forward compatibility with controllers, better service for live, gamepass, cross gen, cross play with Nintendo, smart delivery etc whilst Sony is honey dicking us. They better not make the same mistake as they did 14 years ago and underestimate the competition. I know i wouldn't do that. Man... Xbox with b games, arcadey games, retro games and deep gameplay centric games would be a wetdream for me as a gamer. I like choice. Whether they take an approach even remotely similar is up to them.