Elections Official US 2024 Presidential Election Megathread: Trump v Harris

Who is going to win?

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On the site I've been checking, late $ coming in on Trump.

4 days ago he was -200
2 days ago down to -135
Currently back up to -172


** Disclaimer: I have no idea what kind of action they get and how much someone would need to be betting to swing the lines**
 
mkess101 said:
On the site I've been checking, late $ coming in on Trump.

4 days ago he was -200
2 days ago down to -135
Currently back up to -172


** Disclaimer: I have no idea what kind of action they get and how much someone would need to be betting to swing the lines**
Click to expand...
Drake curse incoming
 
mkess101 said:
On the site I've been checking, late $ coming in on Trump.

4 days ago he was -200
2 days ago down to -135
Currently back up to -172


** Disclaimer: I have no idea what kind of action they get and how much someone would need to be betting to swing the lines**
Click to expand...

I think dudes are more likely to bet than women and women are more likely to vote Kamala than men so I suspect they're off.
 
mkess101 said:
On the site I've been checking, late $ coming in on Trump.

4 days ago he was -200
2 days ago down to -135
Currently back up to -172


** Disclaimer: I have no idea what kind of action they get and how much someone would need to be betting to swing the lines**
Click to expand...
Gambling odds don't really represent "chances to win" tho.

They more reflect what odds are needed to get equal exposed money on both sides so that the house wins no matter the outcome. I think it's a true 50/50 race right now but Trump supporters are far more likely to bet hard earned cash on Trump winning, so the betting markets shift the line that way to account for the way more money on trump side.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think dudes are more likely to bet than women and women are more likely to vote Kamala than men so I suspect they're off.
Click to expand...

Maybe. They have Kamala to win the popular vote at -400 though, so this isn't mindless idiot men throwing $ at anything that says "Trump". These bettors understand fully that Kamala is going to get more votes overall. And as of now (on this one site mind you), they're betting that Trump wins.
 
I don't remember there being so many state lawsuits going on on election day before...
 
HockeyBjj said:
Gambling odds don't really represent "chances to win" tho.

They more reflect what odds are needed to get equal exposed money on both sides so that the house wins no matter the outcome. I think it's a true 50/50 race right now but Trump supporters are far more likely to bet hard earned cash on Trump winning, so the betting markets shift the line that way to account for the way more money on trump side.
Click to expand...

Trust me, I know how betting markets work LOL. Go visit the MMA betting sub--I think I'm the 2nd longest tenured person that's consistently posted there. And see my previous post as well. These bettors fully understand he's not gonna win the popular vote (evidenced by that line).

Keep in mind, betting on the election outcome isn't like betting on your favorite sports team. Those who actually wager on it aren't generally fans that just want $20 on their team for when they watch the game. There's gonna be WAY more sharp $ bet on an election.

Since 1900, only 3 times has a significant betting favorite (-175 or more I **think** was the threshold) lost. 2016, 1948, 1916. That’s it.

Does NOT mean Trump wins. Times change and there are a lot of variables. But doesn't mean you dismiss it out of hand either.
 
mkess101 said:
Those who actually wager on it aren't generally fans that just want $20 on their team for when they watch the game. There's gonna be WAY more sharp $ bet on an election.
Click to expand...
I think this is where our difference is. With the cult of personality that is Trump and his truly devoted followers, I do think there's a large number of small cash (that add up) bets from someone betting on trump the same exact way someone bets on the home team.
 
HockeyBjj said:
I think this is where our difference is. With the cult of personality that is Trump and his truly devoted followers, I do think there's a large number of small cash (that add up) bets from someone betting on trump the same exact way someone bets on the home team.
Click to expand...

I can't say i know for sure, but given how long I've been sports betting and what i know of betting markets etc I'd say that's unlikely. Again, the odds for him to win the popular vote are like +300. This isn't delusional Trumpers throwing $ at their hero. Doesn't mean the Trump bettors are correct this time, but most of the $ likely are just people trying to profit because they think they have an edge.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think dudes are more likely to bet than women and women are more likely to vote Kamala than men so I suspect they're off.
Click to expand...
The betting is all foreign money, almost certainly dominated by Saudi and Russians trying to influence the results.
 
ChosenOne said:
The betting is all foreign money, almost certainly dominated by Saudi and Russians trying to influence the results.
Click to expand...

Definitely gonna be part of it imo.

Edit: that said we've seen swings both ways with the lines.
 
Kowboy On Sherdog said:
I don't remember there being so many state lawsuits going on on election day before...
Click to expand...
Yeah, last time, a lot of judges told Trump and the GOP that they couldn’t dispute a lot of the election laws so close to the election. So they learned from that and filed lawsuits early. A month or two ago there were over 100 Republican lawsuits going :rolleyes:
 
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