Official UFN 84 Thread

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http://www.ufc.com/news/Forty-five-fights-in-Mousasi-feels-like-he-s-in-his-fighting-prime

“I prefer to fight this year three or four times, and then maybe go slow down a little bit.”

“I feel like I’m in my prime now,” Mousasi said. “After the Jacare fight I was in good shape, even in my last fight, even though I lost. I feel that physically, I’m stronger than ever, so I’m very confident going into this fight.”

That fight, that was a big loss, and especially the first time I lost that way. But I know what I’m capable of and what I see in training, and it can happen to anybody. If you fight long enough, one time you will see a kick or a punch that you’ve never seen, and someone will eventually lose even if they’re much better. I don’t think about that fight a lot because it can happen to anybody. But I know I was dominating, so it gave me confidence that if that thing didn’t happen I would have probably won. But it’s a fight, so you never know. I’ve had losses before and I came back, so it’s nothing different.”

“He’s a tough guy,” Mousasi said of the Brazilian veteran. “He’s good everywhere, so I’m coming prepared. I feel like I should definitely be in the top five, so I know I should be able to beat Leites. Technically I’m much better, so I’m gonna fight, and if it comes that it’s even, then I can always brawl and go fight with him. But other than that, I feel like I’m much more technical than him, so I have a lot of advantages.”

“I’m in very good shape and I really do feel like I’m in my prime now, physically and mentally. In sparring, I had difficulties with some guys, but now I’m beating them up easily. (Laughs) If I can take those results and put them in the fights, then 2016 is going to be a great year.”
 
Thanks Card you're putting in work today with all those interviews. I didn't need to go out and search for them myself. I'm liking Parke more too EZ that's a good line.
 
piglord said:
if i remember rightly, wasn't khabilov outstriking bendo for 3 rounds before he finally got choked?
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Yeah, Khabilov was doing alright in the beginning of the fight, outstriking Benson in the beginning. Pretty sure Henderson took over the fight midway through the 2nd round tho, but Khabilov just looked defeated at that point. I think he had a bad cut or something wrong in that camp.

I don't think Parke has anything for Khabilov, honestly. He'll be tentative to throw volume because Khabilov's really good at quick counters and transitioning to grappling or takedowns. Benson had to readjust because Khabilov was all over him in the beginning in this regard. I expect Khabilov to be stronger and have the edge in grappling. Parke likes to talk up his judo game but haven't seen much evidence of it being great in mma.
 
Rasdun said:
Well, theres no way Bisping could have 0% chance to win itd, but, if thats what you think, based on those predicted probabilities, you should bet just Silva. If you think Bis by dec happens 20% of the time, then you wouldn't want to bet that outcome unless odds are greater than +400.
What I also was trying to explain is that, if you did want to hedge, in this instance and almost all other instances bet fighter A to win and not fighter B itd.
Here if your hedging, bet some on Silva and some on not Bisping itd. You'll make more that way Than you will hedging with Bis by dec (see numbers in posts prior)
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I hear what you're saying but again it's a hedge. For the main bet you of course always want to see positive value in the odds vs the probability you assign to the outcome. Hedging is simply a way to limit losses. If I assign the likeliness of the outcomes as:

Silva 80%
Bisping by dec 18%
Bisping itd 2%

I wouldn't bet Bisping by dec as anything other than a way to limit losses. You could be right in that +310 isn't enough of a payout to warrant this hedge. And I'd agree that sometimes betting "not fighter X itd" is the way to go. It just depends on how you cap each individual outcome.
 
Anyone think that Dempsey has a bigger chance than the odds suggest? His two loses came at 205, both on short notice. He has a good wrestling background and Askham is pretty poor off his back. Maybe a win is too far fetched but surely not Askham ITD is a decent bet?
 
vkram said:
Anyone think that Dempsey has a bigger chance than the odds suggest? His two loses came at 205, both on short notice. He has a good wrestling background and Askham is pretty poor off his back. Maybe a win is too far fetched but surely not Askham ITD is a decent bet?
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Dempsey DEC is the only play to make, if you are considering playing him. Maaaaaybe the +3.5. Definitely not, NOT Askham itd, though
 
Does anyone know if 5D is going to be doing LB for this event since its only on Fight Pass? I've noticed they tend to not do LB for non-televised events and technically this would fall into the non-televised category, would it not?
 
YuRikeyAmerican said:
Does anyone know if 5D is going to be doing LB for this event since its only on Fight Pass? I've noticed they tend to not do LB for non-televised events and technically this would fall into the non-televised category, would it not?
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I would assume they won't. Keeping some hope just because this is a big card thanks to that main event, but wouldn't count on it.
 
The 3 dogs I'm endorsing: Pickett, Parke, Wilkinson.
(They're dogs for a reason but I think they have the best chance at an upset.)

- Pickett has good boxing in the pocket as we've seen time and time again. Cisco is a guy who will oblige in the same distance so we're seeing a really good matchup between 2 guys who are going to mesh for an exciting scrap. Pickett also loves to be in the pocket because he has a read option of ducking for a TD as well. But many fighters have timed his tendencies to dip his head low by kneeing the shit out of him. I don't expect Pickett to change that so Cisco should take note. I think Pickett having more ways to win gives me incentive to bet him.

- Parke has volume, better distance, better variety and TDD. He has pillow fists but his objective is to LAND and dictate the fight in that manner. Khabilov I feel like all he has is the right hand and his spinning attacks. What he lacks is the set ups for them to be an effective part of his game. His wrestling entries also suffers because of this but there's no denying that once he locks his hands around your waist he's got a pitbull grip but he's got to find a set up for that for 3 straight rounds or he'll lose on volume. I think it could be a split for either guy and I'll take the guy with the +210.

- This is partly based on a fade of Makwan. The guy is clearly immature and he seems to talk out of his ass. I've seen that dude hit mitts and I'm really not impressed. He's also jumping camps for his dumb little drama in his hometown and I'm not impressed with the type of striking training being taught at SBG with the hands down--> man down approach lol. Wilkinson KO'd Backstrom for having his hands down. But also, Makwan's wrestling isn't that educated because his last fight pre-UFC he was getting stifled when he couldn't get the TDs and he started flopping like a fish out of water. Dog odds for Mike Wilk is the play.

Honorable mentions:

Brad Scott I feel is underrated he could win as a dog, but the o2.5 is more safe as Jotko is coming into his own as well. Omielanczuk isn't exactly a dog, but he's close to evens and he's got a great chance at winning if he comes in with better cardio it's all his. The rest of the card, I simply don't know who they are, or I believe the juice will win.
 
Grant has been training with Saul Rogers at SBG. Talks about his knee injury in the second video. Sounds like he's had 3 knee surgeries... brutal. Still says he's the best he's ever been, he was even in the gym on crutches.



 
Nice thoughts, Rebel_LioN.

I think Makwan/Wilkinson is tough. We haven't see Makwan fight much, and Wilkinson's had a long layoff. In this speculative circumstance, I lean toward the dog if there's it's a big enough dog.
 
Any more thoughts on the O2.5 in Jotko/Scott? It seems solid but I am hesitant to bet on overs with fighters who are still improving a lot between fights.
 
jwms said:
Nice thoughts, Rebel_LioN.

I think Makwan/Wilkinson is tough. We haven't see Makwan fight much, and Wilkinson's had a long layoff. In this speculative circumstance, I lean toward the dog if there's it's a big enough dog.
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Was just gonna post something similar to these sentiments.

Makwan hasn't been in a telling fight in years, and Wilkinson has had like 3 fights over the past 4 years? Something like that. Such a speculative fight that i'm sure non degens are avoiding. I share RL's sentiments on Parke and Pickett, and those are the dogs i'm on as well. Nice to see my views are shared by our parlay king.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Dempsey DEC is the only play to make, if you are considering playing him. Maaaaaybe the +3.5. Definitely not, NOT Askham itd, though
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agreed, if you're playing dempsey, just do dempsey dec. i don't see how in the hell he finishes askham.

i personally think askham tko's him
 
Agent Mulder said:
Any more thoughts on the O2.5 in Jotko/Scott? It seems solid but I am hesitant to bet on overs with fighters who are still improving a lot between fights.
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it prolly hits, but i'd rather bet jotko straight at a similar (cheaper) pricepoint, personally
 
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