Official UFN 84 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 8, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  2. zomb

    zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    brad pickett should've been cut or retired long ago. Probably going big on Rivera here
     
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  3. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    am i nuts to like cisco -225 vs pickett here?
     
  4. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I will stab Pickett at +200 easily if he gets there. Cisco is a flat footed power puncher, and really not much more. Pickett strives in the pocket where he can get flattened in this fight, but at least he'll be more than comfortable should it get there. Pickett has pretty good footwork (better than Rivera at least) and mixes in wrestling with good timed shots pretty well, especially with guys who are willing to go toe to toe. I'm not sure why anyone would want to fade Pickett here when he just gave Thomas Almeida, who lets be honest is a top 5 fighter, hell in his last fight.
     
  5. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    i would like him too if his last fight where he showed zero iq didn't occur. i think brad pickett is a below average fighter but he hits hard and has decent boxing fundamentals, which could be enough to put out rivera's lights if he makes a stupid mistake, which i think he's clearly capable of.
     
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  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Bisping vs anderson o2.5 -130
    O2.0 -160
    O3.0 -105

    Looking at that stuff
     
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  7. zomb

    zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    Pickett hasn't had a KO/TKO win since September 2012 fwiw

    that was actually his only KO/TKO win in his entire UFC/WEC stint. They hype him up as a KO-artist everytime, but it never happens

    One Punch whatever
     
  8. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Him and Sam Stout really jynxed themselves with their nicknames

    Hoping oddsmakers expect a slugfest and have his 'by decision' prop at a great price
     
  9. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I just hit o2.0 -160

    .8u for .5u
     
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  10. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ive been watching Pickett since his days fighting in small UK shows and hes definitely no power punch. I wouldnt feel comfortable betting Rivera above -200 tho especially after his rock em sock em display last time out. Pickett will be amped for this too possibly his last fight and infront of a hometown crowd.
     
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  11. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Anyone care to guess the line movement on Silva decision? I want to play it and It is currently at +347. Not sure to take in now or later
     
  12. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    It's higher than I thought it would be as is. I like it. My guess is it doesn't move a ton but maybe drops, but no confidence in this read
     
  13. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I think it is a very likely outcome. No idea regarding line movement but I think 3.5 to 1 is a good price
     
  14. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yeah, I already like it as it is. I'm just going to drop 2/3s of what I want to drop on it now.

    .2u +347. I will most likely add at least another .1u to it
     
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  15. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Just did 0.3u. Myself.
    Also did 0.25u both guys splits (so like +5xx for either guy via split). And 0.75u o3.0
     
  16. bruthead

    bruthead Blue Belt

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    Will be my first UFC show attending and somewhat ridiculously I might also go to UFC 196 the week after.

    Undecided whether or not to livebet from the event, if I do, my friend will find out how much of a degen I am.
     
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  17. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Nice, I hit Silva split shortly after it was released
     
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    My initial favorite bet is Mousasi by dec at +115.

    Under normal circumstances, if Mousasi and Leites fought 10 times I'd probably figure on Mousasi winning by dec about half of them. Which would still give this line okay value at + odds, but not a ton. But given that Mousasi was stopped by Hall in his last fight, I fully expect him to be pretty conservative here. If Leites was better at cutting off the cage or had terrific takedowns it would be different but he doesn't. And standing, he's just not good enough to win a tactical striking battle with Mousasi. He knows it, Mousasi knows it, everyone knows it. There's just not much Leites can do about it. I think under these circumstances Mousasi wins by dec somewhere around 55%-65% of the time. Which makes +115 a great line imo.
     
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  19. Dusty Trunks

    Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    I am going to hate doing this so much but I have to play Bisping at this price. I had a thread when the fight was announced guessing what the line would be and told myself I would have to play him at anywhere near +200...

    I was honestly expecting Anderson not much over -200 all things considered.
     
  20. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    what's the other 35-45% for you? leites almost impossible to finish..especially if moose is conservative
     
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