Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 8, 2016.
Ladbrokes have Mousasi by UD at 15/8 +187.
Hmm A. Silva and Mousasi by decision parlay at +867
Chalk it up to "it's fighting and weird stuff happens" I guess LOL? Maybe Moose doesn't use enough movement and Leites is able to make it a dirty boxing fight and squeaks out a decision? Hell, maybe I'm even being too conservative. Maybe the odds of a Moose dec are even better than what I'm saying. I absolutely think it's by far the most likely outcome so at + odds it's the bet to make.
Wow that would be 3 to 4 units for me for sure.
Yeah's that's very tempting. Only thing that makes me hesitate is I bet Cejudo to win by unanimous last fight and it was a split even tho it was clearly a unanimous decision.
don't necessarily disagree, but yea, unless you think moose can actually finish leites (which i don't), your #'s looked wrong -- which might mean one of two things
1: it's higher % than you are thinking for mousasi DEC
2: you're underestimating leites
I think Leites is solid but he just doesn't have the footwork to keep up with Moose imo. If his TD's were better I'd give him a better chance too. This fight to screams that it's gonna look like Moose/Latifi.
Pickett did look like his normal self vs Almeida after a bad stint at flw. I like him over Rivera in this one.
Yeah good point and I also didn't see UD I just read it as by dec LOL
I like the O2.5 in Mousasi/Leites
Love that line. See this going to a decision for sure, that over might be my biggest play on that card.
I'm on Pickett too. He's slow as hell at this advanced age though. You can really tell he's lost a step and speed kills @ 135. Cisco though, isn't much of a speed demon so it'll probably be a fire fight unless Pickett decides to take it to the floor. He has the option to get it there and that to me gives him the advantage in this fight.
It'll be hard to get it there because Cisco has looked great with his TDD as of late but I think Pickett is scrappy enough to get in close and keep him honest if he doesn't get KO'd in the process. He's got more ways to win basically. I hope Cisco gets bet up
Pickett had some great moments against Almeida but I need to go back and rewatch that fight. I seem to remember Almeida not really respecting Pickett much and constantly dropping his hands. PIckett has slowed considerably I agree. He still has good pop and is game but I still favor Cisco in this spot. May just be a pass for me. I agree kind of depends on line movement.
Like what I hear. Was already planning on stabbing Wilkinson if Makwan was yet another prospect overpriced due to hype. Nice to hear hes been working hard.
Dont like Picketts chances of grounding Rivera. Rivera's tdd looked great against Faber.
Man, you'd think after Anderson got popped big mouth Bisping would own him in a war of words but Anderson with the psychological win here for sure.
lol, that kinda escalated
Cisco Rivera ITD just opened +130, +125 now.. I'm hitting this.
I think Pickett is kinda done
I think Bisping is fade material at this point. He has not looked good for a long time.
I thought he lost against Leites and iirc his fight with CB was somehow close. Rockhold made him look like and amateur and beating a 42 years old Cung Le who was coming from a long layoff is not that impressive.
Last time he looked good IMO was against Belcher, and that was 3 years ago.
Only chance to win for MB is to outpoint Silva from the outside and put a Condit/Diaz performance... yeah, good luck with that.
Anderson Silva obviously lost a step and he looked tentative against Nick Diaz (who IMO is better than 2016 Bisping even at MW) but he is extraordinary.
The only question IMO is which Silva is going to come... conservative or vintage I think both beat Bisping pretty easily.
Regarding Mousasi/Leites... Im a huge Mousasi fan but I think Leites line is off. This fight is going to be a lot closer than odds suggest. Mousasi is really good but he tends to be inactive sometimes and Leites has a solid chin, above average striking (hard legkicks) and really good ground game. I can see him pressing the action and making this a close contest. Still rooting for Moose but Im not touching him at those odds.
Over 2.5 should hit like 4 out of 5 or something.. so at 1.57 I think it is the bet to make.
BTW... I rarely bet on huge favs.. but Breese is getting a gimme fight here. This is a mismatch of epic proportions.
Mousasi's ML has no value I agree, and he's most likely not finishing Leites. But Mousasi is better, and should win a striking match. Maybe not "easily" (I agree Leites is a solid fighter and he could have won that Bisping fight for sure). But Mousasi shoul outpoint Leites here. I'm big on Mousasi by dec at +115.
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