Official UFN 84 Thread

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Proper looking forward to this now, first ever live event. Heading down to my friends house tomorrow then getting the train into London on Saturday afternoon. Going to have to get my bets on tonight since I probably won't have much time from tomorrow/saturday.

At the moment the main thing I fancy is Breese fight u1.5 rounds. Nakamura was getting destroyed against Li Jiang who doesn't have much of a KO record. Breese has looked outstanding on the feet in his last 2 fights and I think Nakamura will struggle to get him down and can't see him lasting for 1.5 rounds on the feet if he can't take Tom down.

Rivera/Pickett u2.5 @ 1.80 is another I'm looking at too. Rivera has huge power and I can't see Pickett taking a ton of his shots clean if it turns into a firefight. Likewise Rivera has the potential to get clipped himself and despite Pickett being on the decline if he does catch Rivera he's still got the power to hurt him and the ground game to latch onto a choke.

Possibly Wilkinson/Amirkhani u2.5 @ 1.70. Expecting both guys to come out aggressive. Wilkinson could catch Amirkhani if he gets too wild but I think Amirkhani likely gets Wilkinson down and submits him.

Not sure on too many others. Maybe Silva ITD @ 1.71 and the Omielanczuk/Danho fight ITD @ 1.50. Omielnczuk seems a tough dude though even if his UFC losses have been against decision machines. Possibly Scott/Jotko o2.5 rounds as well, Jotko is a bit of a decision machine even if Scott finishes fights, but Scotts losses in the UFC have been by decision.
 
Arnold Allen did a full camp at Tristar, says Meza is a type of fighter he's struggled with in the past, that's it's a step up. Excited to show his improvements.
 
Parke talks altercation with Rustam - 2 min mark

 
pickett-rivera U2.5 is -122

i normally avoid u2.5's like the plague in 3 rounder, but "does not go 3 rounds" is -160, big price difference for once
 
EzFlyer said:
pickett-rivera U2.5 is -122

i normally avoid u2.5's like the plague in 3 rounder, but "does not go 3 rounds" is -160, big price difference for once
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I see a lot of people leaning towards the under in this fight. Is it simply a fade on Pickett's chin combined with Rivera's power? Pickett, while clearly on the decline, is as tough as they come. The knee that rocked his world in the Almeida fight would've put anybody's lights out. Aside from that KO the only other loss by strikes on his record was over 10 years ago in a fight that I haven't seen.

Obviously with a hard-hitter like Rivera the KO is a legitimate possibility and you can't completely rule out a Pickett stoppage either, but I'm leaning towards a standup battle with Rivera outpointing Pickett over 3 rounds but not sealing the deal. I seem to be in the minority, but I actually like a play on the over.
 
chemmy said:
I see a lot of people leaning towards the under in this fight. Is it simply a fade on Pickett's chin combined with Rivera's power? Pickett, while clearly on the decline, is as tough as they come. The knee that rocked his world in the Almeida fight would've put anybody's lights out. Aside from that KO the only other loss by strikes on his record was over 10 years ago in a fight that I haven't seen.

Obviously with a hard-hitter like Rivera the KO is a legitimate possibility and you can't completely rule out a Pickett stoppage either, but I'm leaning towards a standup battle with Rivera outpointing Pickett over 3 rounds but not sealing the deal. I seem to be in the minority, but I actually like a play on the over.
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I'm with you. Rivera packs a punch but Pickett has the toughness and technical boxing, especially in the pocket where Rivera is best, to not have the lights put out. Barring him taking more risks than he needs to to put on a show, I think this hits the cards too. He said in ufc.com interview he fights for his family now and knows he needs a win, so don't think he'll get wild.
 
mkess101 said:
Again, depends on each individual fight. Maybe I think Bisping by dec has some value. Like I think Silva wins 80% of the time and the other 20% Bisping wins by dec. In this scenario I've capped my winnings with Silva more but limited my losses to almost nothing if Bisping does win a dec. Like I said it all depends on what you cap each outcome at vs their odds.
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Well, theres no way Bisping could have 0% chance to win itd, but, if thats what you think, based on those predicted probabilities, you should bet just Silva. If you think Bis by dec happens 20% of the time, then you wouldn't want to bet that outcome unless odds are greater than +400.
What I also was trying to explain is that, if you did want to hedge, in this instance and almost all other instances bet fighter A to win and not fighter B itd.
Here if your hedging, bet some on Silva and some on not Bisping itd. You'll make more that way Than you will hedging with Bis by dec (see numbers in posts prior)
 
Underdogs who attempt more takedowns than their opponent....

Leites > Mousasi
Pickett > Rivera
Dempsey > Askham
Meza > Allen
Omielanczuk > Danho
 
Askham says he's made no changes since his last loss.... just said he didn't show up.
 
chemmy said:
I see a lot of people leaning towards the under in this fight. Is it simply a fade on Pickett's chin combined with Rivera's power? Pickett, while clearly on the decline, is as tough as they come. The knee that rocked his world in the Almeida fight would've put anybody's lights out. Aside from that KO the only other loss by strikes on his record was over 10 years ago in a fight that I haven't seen.

Obviously with a hard-hitter like Rivera the KO is a legitimate possibility and you can't completely rule out a Pickett stoppage either, but I'm leaning towards a standup battle with Rivera outpointing Pickett over 3 rounds but not sealing the deal. I seem to be in the minority, but I actually like a play on the over.
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yes, i think rivera ko's him, but i also think he can be finished (more likely in the 2nd round or something).. like maybe pickett could snag a tko or a sub if rivera slows down
 
http://www.ufc.com/news/Undefeated-Thibault-Gouti-more-than-ready-for-UFC-debut?id=

“I was waiting for this call and I wasn’t surprised,” Gouti said. “Deep in my mind, I knew that I will fight in this UFC for my birthday.”

And while he lost his fight to get into the TUF house to David Teymur, Gouti wasn’t looking to have a long wait to get a second shot.

“After the Ultimate Fighter, I felt that I didn’t fight like I used to, but I was still determined to get into the UFC.”

“My win against Anton was revenge from TUF,” he said. “I wanted show to everybody that I deserve to be in the UFC by beating a UFC veteran.”

“I will definitely go for the finish. I don’t care about the risk, but I do all of these things with intelligence.”
 
http://www.ufc.com/news/Vera-fighting-for-daughters-chance-at-a-smile

“I need to do two things with the money from fighting,” he said. “I need a house and I need the surgery for my daughter. I need to see my daughter smile. That's really important for me.”

Vera’s daughter, born with the rare neurological condition Moebius Syndrome, leaves her unable to smile.

“It's just another fight,” said Vera, who is coming off a Performance of the Night win over Roman Salazar. “I don't care about the city where I fight, I just care about the guy the UFC puts in front of me, and I want to take the head off of this guy. I want to win, I want to get that money, and I want to improve my record.”

doing it in Ecuador, far from an MMA hotbed, only makes it that much more difficult.

“It's kind of hard,” he said. “We don't have a lot of fighters here, but we're working on that and we use what we have. We get some sparring partners and there's good jiu-jitsu here, but in MMA, we don't have the partners I need. My coach (Frank Vidal) makes good work and I do what I can do, but I need a little more, I think. It's not the same as being in the USA and training with a bunch of fighters, where everybody wants to be in the UFC, and everybody wants to train hard. Sometimes I come into the gym and there's nobody to train with. But we do what we can do. I need people like me who want to do it the whole day.”

after the Grant fight, he expects to scout some training locations in Los Angeles with his manager,

I'm young, I'm hungry and I train a lot. I think no one trains like me. I want the title, I want to be the first Ecuadorian with the belt, and I'm going to bring it to Ecuador. I'm the first Ecuadorian in the UFC, and I will be the first Ecuadorian with the UFC belt.”

“I can't act like a kid. I have two kids. My son and my daughter, they are the kids, so I have to act like a grown man and think like a man and do what men do - work hard every day, get my house, and give my family a better life. I have to do the same thing that my dad did. He gave me the best and I give the best to my son and my daughter.”
 
full event spreads are up.. parke +3.5 -145 fuckkkk. i wanted near evens.

anyone like any of the new ones?
 
Wtf?? On TUF LatAm there was an episode where UFC informed Vera they would pay for his daughter's surgery, but according to him hes still trying to get it done?

Thats kind of fucked
 
weedreference said:
As a Parke backer I'm down for him striking. All he needs to do is out-volume him. Khabilov throws a few big punches, but never hurts anyone.
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if i remember rightly, wasn't khabilov outstriking bendo for 3 rounds before he finally got choked?
 
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