Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[iGnP]

BTW, Taisumov, Hein and P. Hallman all prepared for their fights at Tiger Muay Thai. Heard they all had great camps FWIW.

did you read that somewhere ITT? if not, post the source, id like to read it too (not doubting you, just would like to see it myself also)

 

[MMA Goodfella]

So this is my first time being back on since I was virtually evicted from my betting site after losing three quarters of my bankroll on Cain and Gil only to subsequently beg the Bookmaker customer Service representative to put over $300 into my account for being a longtime member. They wouldn't haggle so I Ebay'd 25 rare TY beanie babies circa 1996 for enough money to play with.

Seriously though, I've just been busy. My BR is solid enough that I could keep them beanie babies. I'm sure they've increased in value like 800% by now. Amirite? oh fuck, I just checked -- they're worthless! 😫

It's all good though as I see a lot of good plays coming up this weekend both on Bellator and the UFC. I'll have a few breakdowns in the next few days but one that pops off of the page is the carnival show that is the Kimbo Slice versus Ken Shamrock fight.

Spoiler

I wouldn't even discuss this fight but believe it or not Kimbo actually has decent odds considering the circumstances. I mean, ffs, Ken is 51 years old and made his professional MMA debut during the FIRST Iraq War. The FIRST World trade center bombing. The FIRST George HW Bush administration. Dude was fresh on the scene when Conan O'Brien made his TV debut. for those posters under 25 ITT, some items that are analogous to Shammy look like this: 📻 📼 ☎️ 📟 📠 and definitely 💉

Hell, for as little as I think of Kimbo as a professional mixed martial artist, at least he has been in fights lately and is still in somewhat of a fighting prime where as Ken is literally a few years away from being eligible for full AARP benefits.

Let me be more blunt, I would not have bet on Ken to have the defeated Kimbo when they were first supposed to meet five years ago let alone in 2015. Ken has absolutely nothing left in the tank as his chin is fully gone and his punches are so slow that even Samwel Tarley could duck them, kiss Gilly and return fire. Further, not only would the punch land, but it would shatter Ken's jaw like Dragon Glass through a White Walker. (I saw all the GoT talk in the last thread) 😎

Let's be real here, Ken has only fought (and I use that term loosely) five times in the past ELEVEN years and he was dusted in his last outing by a 275lb fatass named Mike Bourke inside of three minutes. Moreover, this is a guy in Mike Bourke who is 6-10 overall and had lost 7 of 8 entering the Shammy fight including losses to Tank Abbott and Bo Cantrell while only having won 3 of his past 16 fights overall. Among Ken's wins were against 360 lb blob Ross Clifton who is 6-10 overall and was 1-6 coming into the Shammy bout. The other victory that Ken had in over a decade was against everyone's favorite punching bag 31-54 Jonathan Ivey who had dropped 8-11 coming in and is like 2-13 since.

At any rate, I wouldn't even be bothering to break this down in the slightest if the odds were not somewhat close (Given the fighters in question) as Kimbo is only a -265 favorite whereas I believe that number should be closer to -850 or so. Accordingly, if it is possible to get the knock out prop at -220 or better then that calls for a significant bet IMO.

 

[efalk1322]

Lahat/Backstrom

Lahat is just not that good and I think we're getting a decent price on Backstrom after he got caught in his last outing. Backstrom has a definitive advantage on the feet and has a much wider array of strikes. It should be pretty close on the ground, although Lahat has the edge. Backstrom has shown solid cardio, while Lahat gasses horribly. If you look at the competition they've faced, Backstrom has faced and beaten far better opponents than Lahat, who has mostly fought cans. Lahat also went back to the Israeli army after his win over Siler, so who knows how much he's been training.

1.5u Backstrom...added him to my Sobotta parlay. Pays +102

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Where are MMAGF, 12thman and Puerto? I am missing their breakdowns and thoughts!

I Been busy bud, is there a specific fight that you are Needing broke down? Or anyone else for that sake in here need a certain fight broke down?

 

[Card]

Looking at his Instgram - Lahat has been training at AKA with his main partner being Josh Thomson (who is also training for an upcoming fight) - https://instagram.com/noad_lahat/

 

[Card]

Siver - http://www.ufc.com/news/Dennis-Siver-A-Long-Awaited-Homecoming

- “It may sound like a clich

 

[efalk1322]

So this is my first time being back on since I was virtually evicted from my betting site after losing three quarters of my bankroll on Cain and Gil only to subsequently beg the Bookmaker customer Service representative to put over $300 into my account for being a longtime member. They wouldn't haggle so I Ebay'd 25 rare TY beanie babies circa 1996 for enough money to play with.

Seriously though, I've just been busy. My BR is solid enough that I could keep them beanie babies. I'm sure they've increased in value like 800% by now. Amirite? oh fuck, I just checked -- they're worthless! 😫

It's all good though as I see a lot of good plays coming up this weekend both on Bellator and the UFC. I'll have a few breakdowns in the next few days but one that pops off of the page is the carnival show that is the Kimbo Slice versus Ken Shamrock fight.

Spoiler

I wouldn't even discuss this fight but believe it or not Kimbo actually has decent odds considering the circumstances. I mean, ffs, Ken is 51 years old and made his professional MMA debut during the FIRST Iraq War. The FIRST World trade center bombing. The FIRST George HW Bush administration. Dude was fresh on the scene when Conan O'Brien made his TV debut. for those posters under 25 ITT, some items that are analogous to Shammy look like this: 📻 📼 ☎️ 📟 📠 and definitely 💉

Hell, for as little as I think of Kimbo as a professional mixed martial artist, at least he has been in fights lately and is still in somewhat of a fighting prime where as Ken is literally a few years away from being eligible for full AARP benefits.

Let me be more blunt, I would not have bet on Ken to have the defeated Kimbo when they were first supposed to meet five years ago let alone in 2015. Ken has absolutely nothing left in the tank as his chin is fully gone and his punches are so slow that even Samwel Tarley could duck them, kiss Gilly and return fire. Further, not only would the punch land, but it would shatter Ken's jaw like Dragon Glass through a White Walker. (I saw all the GoT talk in the last thread) 😎

Let's be real here, Ken has only fought (and I use that term loosely) five times in the past ELEVEN years and he was dusted in his last outing by a 275lb fatass named Mike Bourke inside of three minutes. Moreover, this is a guy in Mike Bourke who is 6-10 overall and had lost 7 of 8 entering the Shammy fight including losses to Tank Abbott and Bo Cantrell while only having won 3 of his past 16 fights overall. Among Ken's wins were against 360 lb blob Ross Clifton who is 6-10 overall and was 1-6 coming into the Shammy bout. The other victory that Ken had in over a decade was against everyone's favorite punching bag 31-54 Jonathan Ivey who had dropped 8-11 coming in and is like 2-13 since.

At any rate, I wouldn't even be bothering to break this down in the slightest if the odds were not somewhat close (Given the fighters in question) as Kimbo is only a -265 favorite whereas I believe that number should be closer to -850 or so. Accordingly, if it is possible to get the knock out prop at -220 or better then that calls for a significant bet IMO.

good to have you back GF, I'm glad you didnt have to sell your beanie babies. i've been going back and forth on how to play this freak show. i was initially thinking of playing shamrock but then i snapped back into reality haha. will be with you for a unit or so on kimbo...i still cant believe this fight is actually happening.

 

[Card]

Omer - http://www.ufc.com/news/Alan-Omer-Right-on-Time

- “I dislocated my thumb in the first round and unfortunately threw my game plan out the window and started to wrestle and grapple with Jim, which went well, but obviously played into his hands,”
- In the end, one of the two judges still had me winning that fight, and I personally felt that I did enough to win as well.”
- “Word about the opponent change reached me when I was already done with my training camp,”
- “I went into my fight at UFC Berlin focusing on my strengths anyway.
- "Allen has a little more size and reach than Wilkinson, but he's been in the game for a much
shorter amount of time,”
- “When he made his pro debut, I already had twenty professional fights under my belt. I will fight him anywhere the fight goes and, to be honest, I don't think he brings anything to the table that I haven't seen already."
- “I knew a lot of top wrestlers from Chechnya and Dagestan are preparing at Tiger, like UFC fighters Mairbek Taisumov and Zubaira Tukhugov, and these were the type of people I wanted to train with and challenge myself against in sparring,”
- Roger Huerta and his team have been nothing but amazing; they have really taken good care of me and pushed me hard.
- “I was born in Kurdistan, but Germany is my home,”
- There is a large Kurdish community in Berlin and I know they are all rooting for me

 

[Card]

Sasaki - http://www.ufc.com/news/Ulka-Sasaki-A-Bantamweight-Evolves

- “I was just immature,”
- “Also, I feel I made a mistake and took my opponent lightly.” (Leandro Issa)
- “Nothing in particular affected me,” “I wasn't jet lagged, and I was in a good condition for that fight.”
- “His punches extend well, so I have to be careful about that. Striking is his favorite skill, so I don't want to get into that rhythm. I want to make sure he won't feel good during the fight this weekend.”
- “I am planning on peaking more than a few years down the road. I am constantly evolving every day. I feel stronger than yesterday and I will be stronger tomorrow, so right now I am at my peak, in that sense.”

Sajewski - http://www.ufc.com/news/Lukasz-Sajewski-Poland-Latest-Phenom

- “Fighting on a rival's turf gives me extra motivation. I know I have to reach my very best. I feel that I have to attack and conquer. I am a born winner.”
- “I am relentless, always going to do my job and force my style of fight,”
- “It doesn't matter how my rival will fight, what’s more important is what I'm going to do with him. I am coming for a war and won't take captives.”

 

[Card]

Hein - http://www.ufc.com/news/Nick-Hein-Charismatic-German-Star-Returns-Saturday

- I quit my Job as a police officer to be able to continue my dream of fighting in the UFC.
- “Losses are good for development,”
- “They make you over think your routine and how to improve. And I changed a lot. The biggest change was to become a member of Team Banter in Tiger Muay Thai in Phuket. This was an eye opener for me.”
- I can tell you that I was pushed to my limits in this training camp as I never have been before. I am excited for the 20th.

Sobotta - http://www.ufc.com/news/Peter-Sobotta-A-Changed-Man

- I’m a completely different fighter now, because I approach the game differently.”
- I definitely listen to my body more than in the past.”
- “I had won a lot of fights outside of the UFC, but that first win inside the Octagon had eluded me up until that point,”
- “I would be lying if I said the change of opponent doesn’t change my approach,”
- “I’ve been preparing for an opponent, who, for the first time in my career, was at least on paper better than me on the ground, so I was training to escape a lot of bad positions. In Kennedy I’m now facing someone who is more of an all-round fighter like myself. This is actually great for my training, because it shakes up my routine and allows me to train some different things as well.”
- “I will come to Berlin very well prepared and in great shape,”
- I have a lot of new weapons that I want to put on display and I want to turn in a performance that will have the fans going home excited.
- my dream is to test my skills against those of one of my childhood heroes in Demian Maia before he retires from the sport.”

 

[mkess101]

So this is my first time being back on since I was virtually evicted from my betting site after losing three quarters of my bankroll on Cain and Gil only to subsequently beg the Bookmaker customer Service representative to put over $300 into my account for being a longtime member. They wouldn't haggle so I Ebay'd 25 rare TY beanie babies circa 1996 for enough money to play with.

Seriously though, I've just been busy. My BR is solid enough that I could keep them beanie babies. I'm sure they've increased in value like 800% by now. Amirite? oh fuck, I just checked -- they're worthless! 😫

It's all good though as I see a lot of good plays coming up this weekend both on Bellator and the UFC. I'll have a few breakdowns in the next few days but one that pops off of the page is the carnival show that is the Kimbo Slice versus Ken Shamrock fight.

Spoiler

I wouldn't even discuss this fight but believe it or not Kimbo actually has decent odds considering the circumstances. I mean, ffs, Ken is 51 years old and made his professional MMA debut during the FIRST Iraq War. The FIRST World trade center bombing. The FIRST George HW Bush administration. Dude was fresh on the scene when Conan O'Brien made his TV debut. for those posters under 25 ITT, some items that are analogous to Shammy look like this: 📻 📼 ☎️ 📟 📠 and definitely 💉

Hell, for as little as I think of Kimbo as a professional mixed martial artist, at least he has been in fights lately and is still in somewhat of a fighting prime where as Ken is literally a few years away from being eligible for full AARP benefits.

Let me be more blunt, I would not have bet on Ken to have the defeated Kimbo when they were first supposed to meet five years ago let alone in 2015. Ken has absolutely nothing left in the tank as his chin is fully gone and his punches are so slow that even Samwel Tarley could duck them, kiss Gilly and return fire. Further, not only would the punch land, but it would shatter Ken's jaw like Dragon Glass through a White Walker. (I saw all the GoT talk in the last thread) 😎

Let's be real here, Ken has only fought (and I use that term loosely) five times in the past ELEVEN years and he was dusted in his last outing by a 275lb fatass named Mike Bourke inside of three minutes. Moreover, this is a guy in Mike Bourke who is 6-10 overall and had lost 7 of 8 entering the Shammy fight including losses to Tank Abbott and Bo Cantrell while only having won 3 of his past 16 fights overall. Among Ken's wins were against 360 lb blob Ross Clifton who is 6-10 overall and was 1-6 coming into the Shammy bout. The other victory that Ken had in over a decade was against everyone's favorite punching bag 31-54 Jonathan Ivey who had dropped 8-11 coming in and is like 2-13 since.

At any rate, I wouldn't even be bothering to break this down in the slightest if the odds were not somewhat close (Given the fighters in question) as Kimbo is only a -265 favorite whereas I believe that number should be closer to -850 or so. Accordingly, if it is possible to get the knock out prop at -220 or better then that calls for a significant bet IMO.

Everything you posted about the fight is true, though I still do have flashbacks of journeyman LHW Seth Petruzelli putting Kimbo on queer street with a fadeaway jab.

That said, I'm with you. Ken has literally one chance to win this fight and that's to dive at Kimbo's legs and secure a leglock right away. Assuming Kimbo is athletic enough to avoid that, this fight won't last more than a couple minutes. And it will be Shamrock getting tagged and turtling up.

 

[iGnP]

I Been busy bud, is there a specific fight that you are Needing broke down? Or anyone else for that sake in here need a certain fight broke down?

ill take a Lapilus/Sasaki breakdown if anyone else ITT wants it as well. if not then dont worry about it!

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Looking at his Instgram - Lahat has been training at AKA with his main partner being Josh Thomson (who is also training for an upcoming fight) - https://instagram.com/noad_lahat/

Yeah Card, he has been training there for some time now and this fight with him versus Backstrom is a very interesting fight. These are two of the most promising prospects in their division respectively and with Backstrom coming off of A knock out and his first career loss it is going to be interesting to see how he bounces back. I mean, Lahat is not a free win by any stretch of the imagination and to get him on your first flight back after the KO loss to an inferior fighter in Mike Wilkinson is something that bettors need to keep an eye on.

In Lahat you are talking about a serious BJJ Player who only needs the briefest of windows to slap something on you and make you tap out. What's more, buttressing Lahat's BJJ credentials is his black belt in judo which makes him nearly impossible to take down while simultaneously making him an extremely tough to deal with in the clinch as he is excellent at manipulating his opponents body and placing himself in favorable positions.

The problem for Lahat in this fight that Backstrom is a huge featherweight and as a result he will be on the wrong and of both a height and reach disadvantage at three and 4 inches respectively. Moreover, while Lahat is a tremendous judoka and a very good wrestler as well, the problem is that his striking is nearly as inferior as his grappling is good. Of course this was on display when Godofredo Pepey starched him with a flying J in Brazil. Undoubtedly, Backstrom is going to have a significant edge in the striking department both from a fundamental and a physical standpoint.

At -220 I think that the odds are fairly set and there is even perhaps a bit of value on Backstrom given his edge in the striking combined with the fact that he is a terrific grappler in his own right as we seen when he burst on the same and proved his hype to be worthy by tapping a solid fighter in Tom Niiminaki.

 

[efalk1322]

ill take a Lapilus/Sasaki breakdown if anyone else ITT wants it as well. if not then dont worry about it!

id like that one as well. i see quite a few people on lapilus

 

[Card]

Sasaki vs. Lapilus - they are both taking this fight on a months notice.

 

[Card]

Follow four fighters through their training camp at Tiger Muay Thai, as they make a wave traveling to UFC Berlin on June 20, 2015.

 

[molest]

Kimbo did hung in there vs Mittrione and Nelson.

 

[Card]

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/6/1...mer-injury-wilkinson-misha-circkunov-mma-news

Who is Arnold Allen?

The 21-year old English fighter comes to the UFC training out of BKK Fighters in Essex, England. The camp is the home of longtime regional vet Jack Mason as well as a stable of rising young fighters. Allen is the latest to make the leap to the big show, following Luke Barnatt and John Maguire, and does so on the back of a 9-1 record. It's not full of "big" wins, with his most notably opponent, Marcin Wrzosek, giving him his only loss, but he has wins over other rising fighters like Doni Miller and Gaetano Pirrello to round out a solid resume. While Arnold himself is an MMA native, he's also a second generation fighter, following his father Pacer Allen's short career. Prior to MMA his father was also a travelling strongman. We had Allen as the top fighter who just missed the cut to the top 10 of our FW prospects list for the Bloody Elbow scouting report, but other outlets have had him ranked much higher.

What you should expect:

The fundamental foundation of Allen's MMA game is his grinding pressure grappling and ground and pound. He's not a bad striker, with a basic 1-2 straight combination punching game, but he's yet to show himself as a very complex striker either, mostly popping off the occasional combination to judge timing and distance on his way to the clinch and the body lock. It's in tight that Allen both tends to excel and get stuck a bit. He's great at controlling opponents against the cage, wearing on them, trapping them, but he's more focused on control than he is damage in the position and really grinds people there. He prefers to use trips and drags from the body lock, rather than outside shots, but he's got a nicely technical game there and is good at securing top position on the ground where he's an active striker. Because he's so young, he has some filling out to do on his frame and will no doubt be a much bigger featherweight in time, but it'll be interesting to see if he fact that he doesn't cut a lot of weight hurts him early at 145.

What this means for his debut:

Tough to say. Short notice certainly won't do Allen any favors, but considering that he's not known for cutting a lot of weight, it may not hurt him as much as other fighters. His body lock and control games could match up really well with Alan Omer who has struggled at times to keep stronger wrestlers off him, and has been willing to work off his back for extended periods. On the other hand, Omer has shown a lot more pop in his hands and has a lot of experience under his belt. A win for Allen would be huge here, but I expect he'll look good win or lose.

 

[mkess101]

MLB Thursday

Spoiler

• 1U Jays

Getting back on the Jays train. Jays lookin stellar tonite and on form. Would like to think the other game was a mental error by that scrub pitcher.

• 0.5U Rays

Also liking the Rays tomorrow with Archer.

• 0.5U Royals

All ML/SU

Would love to hear thoughts from the sharps. I'm doing it anyway since I've been following these teams.

My thoughts on these

Spoiler

I can't really argue with any of these plays. For sure I think TB has value with Archer having been so dominant for over a month while Fister is coming off a month on the DL for the Nats. -135 isn't that expensive to back Archer and the Rays here.

Ditto for the Royals. Guthrie has been solid in his last 3 starts since getting blown up by the Yankees. Meanwhile Nelson for the Brewers has struggled lately. Obviously these are two teams going in different directions, the Royals a WS threat and the Brewers bottom feeders. No problems with paying the juice on KC here.

Now...they Jays. I get that they are red hot and I really can't argue with riding that streak. I might throw a bit on them myself. My only hesitation is with laying this kind of juice on Dickey. When he's on, he's great. But when he's off...yikes. That said the Jays offense is good enough for them to win even if Dickey gets lit up. I will say I like this play the least of the 3 due to how expensive the Jays are in this spot.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Everything you posted about the fight is true, though I still do have flashbacks of journeyman LHW Seth Petruzelli putting Kimbo on queer street with a fadeaway jab.

That said, I'm with you. Ken has literally one chance to win this fight and that's to dive at Kimbo's legs and secure a leglock right away. Assuming Kimbo is athletic enough to avoid that, this fight won't last more than a couple minutes. And it will be Shamrock getting tagged and turtling up.

Yeah I don't forget that either but let's be clear about something and that is that a Petruzelli jab circa 2009 has more steam on it than any punch in the Shamrock repertoire -- and it is not even close. Ken is just so freaking slow but even if he does for a leg Kimbo will either get out of the way or just blast on him until he went unconscious. Sadly, Ken is doing this for nothing more than that paycheck is and I know this because he is eventaking a bareknuckle match against some Irish Youtube star that is basically a real life version of Mickey O'Neil. Indeed, Ken is planning to fight Brad Pitts Pikey Irish traveller character from Snatch after the Kimbo fight.

it wouldn't be surprising to me if Ken would throw a fight at this point of his career and I believe that he has already been in some questionable fights in the past. I'm not saying that he will our right through the fight, but I do not believe that he would take too much damage either and that means tapping to strikes or taking the first easy way out offered to him. Just look where Nate Marquardt is at 36 (?) and imagine if he were to fight for another decade and a half. Sure, Kimbo is A very poor mixed martial artist but when you are fighting against a guy who has already at the half-century mark you do not have to be Hall of Fame material.

It's all about this bro : 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

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@iGnP : I got you 👌🏽