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Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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1 added MLB play

LAA +118 vs ARI

Two pitchers who have thrown it well lately. Just a value play as I cap this game as truly even.
 
MLB Thursday

  • 1U Jays

Getting back on the Jays train. Jays lookin stellar tonite and on form. Would like to think the other game was a mental error by that scrub pitcher.

  • 0.5U Rays

Also liking the Rays tomorrow with Archer.

  • 0.5U Royals

All ML/SU

Would love to hear thoughts from the sharps. I'm doing it anyway since I've been following these teams.
 
For sure, but I'm definitely keeping my eye out for those odds lol

what you cap the fight as? just the fact that Gil took the fight so quickly makes me think he's motivated to redeem himself
 
forgot about that. meathead it is.

yeah makes sense. better than matching stipe and cain together and having one of them taking an L. HW is def more interesting after this last weekend :)
 
what you cap the fight as? just the fact that Gil took the fight so quickly makes me think he's motivated to redeem himself
Too quick for me to cap, but I definitely favor Gil
 
BRad - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-69-odds/

Amirkhani is already a bit overrated because of how he won his UFC debut, and that’s about to be exacerbated because he’s going to fight an overmatched Mexican in Masio Fullen. I don’t think Amirkahni is a particularly good striker at this point, but Fullen was absolutely torched on the feet on TUF Latin America, so I still have to give ‘Mr. Finland’ the edge. On the ground, he’s even further ahead of Fullen, and that’s where I see this one ending.

Like Amirkhani, I know people are high on Mairbek Taisumov, but this is a sneaky dangerous fight for him. Alan Patrick isn’t quite as powerful or as good of a wrestler as Michel Prazeres, but I think he can have some similar success to ‘Trator’ in this matchup, and keep it closer on the feet. In the end, Taisumov may have filled some of the holes he showed earlier in his UFC career and might be able to pull this one out, but I have no confidence in that. Patrick was very competitive against a better striker and takedown defender

Alan Omer was a highly touted prospect who disappeared from MMA for a few years, but returned in 2014 and made his UFC debut in a bout that many felt he won over Jim Alers. His submission game was his strong suit early in his career, but his striking looked much improved against Alers as well. Unfortunately, Alers has been sidelined since his April 2014 UFC debut, so he may have some more rust to shake off against the debuting Arnold Allen. At just 21, Allen is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC, and he definitely shows some youthful exuberance in the cage. A talented southpaw with well-rounded skills, he tends to overwhelm opponents with activity, but can struggle in wrestling exchanges and can be a bit overaggressive. I expect Allen to give Omer trouble on the feet here, but I think Omer eventually slows the fight down and secures a decision. If I’m betting this at the current price, I’m taking the dog however.

Backstrom/Lahat is very tricky to me, but should also be one of the more entertaining fights on the card. Both men are skilled offensively, with Backstrom having a slight edge on the feet and Lahat being better on the ground, but both are also flawed enough defensively to make them vulnerable even in their strongest areas. I lean slightly towards Backstrom here because it was just under a year ago that Lahat rejoined the Israeli army, and I’m unsure how focused he’s been on MMA in the past year. This is a fight I’ll have a hard time betting either way though, as I don’t want to lay the juice on Backstrom and his chin, but I still think he’s the more likely winner. I actually think the under has legs here, as Backstrom’s aggressive style means someone will likely get caught early.

Scott Askham put on a solid performance in his UFC debut, but came up just short. I expect him to look more impressive this time around, and I think he’ll get a stoppage victory over Antonio Dos Santos Jr. Askham is going to have a cardio advantage and be the tighter of these two fighters. As Dos Santos starts to get tired and wild, I think the Brit can answer back with some clean strikes that do enough to get the KO. I could also see Askham doing some big damage from the clinch in this one, and stopping the Brazilian there.

Magomed Mustafaev breaks fighters in a lot of his bouts with his wrestling and pressure, but that’s going to be a very tall order against Piotr Hallmann. We’ve already seen Hallmann pull out the victory over Francisco Trinaldo after being badly hurt, and take 15 minutes of punishment against Al Iaquinta. That means Mustafaev will likely be forced to go to the third round (and likely to a decision) for the first time in his career. The key for Hallmann will be making Mustafaev struggle for early takedowns so he can stuff the later ones and impose his striking advantage. How successful he’ll be in that regard is another story, but I’m going to side with the UFC veteran in this one to make life difficult early and take over late.

Yuta Sasaki was very disappointing in a bout that seemed tailor-made for him against Leandro Issa, but this is a good spot for him to rebound. Taylor Lapilus is a better striker here, but Sasaki should be able to use his pressure on the feet to close the distance, and from close quarters there is no comparison between these two. Sasaki is the far more skilled grappler, and I think he’ll submit Lapilus fairly quickly in this one.
 
Jay Primetown - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-69-newcomer-breakdown-magomed-mustafaev/

This matchup has gone under the radar as one of the best fights on the Fight Night 69 card. Underrated Piotr Hallmann takes on the latest Russian prospect entering the UFC, Magomed Mustafaev. I expect this to be a competitive fight. Hallmann is tough, durable, physical, and has decent cardio. Mustafaev is the flashier striker with the better grappling skill set. It’s an interesting matchup on paper as Mustafaev certainly has holes in his defensive wrestling. Hallmann could certainly take the Russian down making it difficult to score for the judges. On the flip side, Mustafaev is excellent in scrambles and should be able to work for submissions both on his back and in the scrambles on the Polish fighter. In a close fight, I ever so slightly favor the Russian to come out with the win, but it won’t be easy. I think this is the perfect fight to sit back and watch as it will tell us a lot about both fighters.



 
Brian Hemminger - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-69-newcomer-breakdown-arnold-allen/

On paper, this is a very competitive fight. Omer is the bigger puncher with the better submission game. On the flip side, Arnold is better conditioned and more focused on scoring takedowns. I expect these fighters to trade a bit, but ultimately this fight will settled by how effective Arnold can be clinch and control the action in this fight. He’s taking this fight on less than a week’s notice which is a standard red flag. However, he cuts almost no weight to make 145 pounds, so I don’t expect him to be physically drained from the weight cut. If in fact there are no issues with the cut, I think this fight should be much closer to even than the (-210) favorite Alan Omer opened at. Ultimately, Omer is more experienced and is the fighter that has shown to be a finisher. There’s a reason he’s the favorite, but Arnold’s grinding style has all the makings for this to be a toss-up if it hits the judges’ scorecards.

 
BTW, Taisumov, Hein and P. Hallman all prepared for their fights at Tiger Muay Thai. Heard they all had great camps FWIW.
 
BTW, Taisumov, Hein and P. Hallman all prepared for their fights at Tiger Muay Thai. Heard they all had great camps FWIW.
To add to that. Fullen has been training at Alliance and Magomed has been training at ATT
 
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