Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[rille31]

Kimbo says he been working on his ground game

My last fight I wasn

 

[Jeffplsgo]

i don't get how people are laying 2:1 on backstrom here. that last fight doesn't make you the least bit hesitant..?

That's exactly the kind of fight a fighter grows from. I think Backstrom should be a higher favorite here, Lahat is mediocre.

 

[mkess101]

US Open matchups

Spoiler

Tournament: Jason Day +105 vs. Jimmy Walker

1st round: Jordan Spieth -120 vs. Justin Rose

 

[Rebel_LioN]

That's exactly the kind of fight a fighter grows from. I think Backstrom should be a higher favorite here, Lahat is mediocre.

I don't think Lahat is mediocre when he has world class grappling. He can easily turn it around just like Leandro Issa for example who nobody expected to improve so fast in his stand up.

I'm basing judgement on Lahat in his previous fights but I won't doubt he can improve. He's shown some variety already in his stand up where he can strike a bit. He needs to work on his timing and maybe learning some combinations to integrate into his TDs. He's working at AKA so he's getting good training.

Backstrom being the more versed striker, needs to take a page out of Gustafsson's book and move his feet after combinations. He's a pretty lanky guy and he snaps good kicks for range. He also throws great elbows in close if he times it right. I don't know if Lahat has countering skills to hurt Backstrom.

I think it's a close fight and could go to the judges cards once I think more about it. Sitting at +175 I think I'm going to pull the trigger on a play on that today.

 

[HomunculusXV]

Kimbo says he been working on his ground game

My last fight I wasn

 

[Jeffplsgo]

I don't think Lahat is mediocre when he has world class grappling. He can easily turn it around just like Leandro Issa for example who nobody expected to improve so fast in his stand up.

I'm basing judgement on Lahat in his previous fights but I won't doubt he can improve. He's shown some variety already in his stand up where he can strike a bit. He needs to work on his timing and maybe learning some combinations to integrate into his TDs. He's working at AKA so he's getting good training.

Backstrom being the more versed striker, needs to take a page out of Gustafsson's book and move his feet after combinations. He's a pretty lanky guy and he snaps good kicks for range. He also throws great elbows in close if he times it right. I don't know if Lahat has countering skills to hurt Backstrom.

I think it's a close fight and could go to the judges cards once I think more about it. Sitting at +175 I think I'm going to pull the trigger on a play on that today.

He doesnt have world class grappling. He won the tournament on the brown belt level. Good grappling, but not world class. He can obviously improve, but I don't think his striking will catch up to Backstroem's in such a short time.

 

[mkess101]

Let's be honest here. Nothing in gambling is as easy as it appears at first glance. If you think Shamrock is going to get dusted the odds wouldn't be as close as they are. Kimbo's line would be at the very least around the high -300 to -500 mark. Kimbo at -200 means the line is very telling. Shamrock has a good chance in getting the win despite everyone thinking Kimbo is a "LOCK".

Remember if this goes to the ground at any point, you can virtually count Kimbo out. Shamrock could just as easily use his patented ankle lock. I'm definitely putting a small flier bet on Shamrock because he has more way to win and Kimbo gasses after his 2 minutes of flurry punches. I'm always going with value play here. Shamrock's age does worry me to a degree but he looks absolutely ripped and in great physical shape.

Never said I would be Bellator after getting screwed over in many of the rig jobs but I equate the new regime as basically STRIKEFORCE now. I have much more faith in Coke than I do with Rebney

My 2 cents

- Barry

Ken has supplemented "show muscles" Barry. He is old and slow and has absolutely zero chin left. He's not athletic enough mostly likely to even come close to getting ahold of Kimbo's leg. And that is probably his ONLY way to win. If you see the fight hit the ground most likely it will be because Kimbo is teeing off on Ken after dropping him.

Kimbo's odds have dropped to -250 and I'm hitting it for a decent amount. Even if you believe it could be rigged, Bellator has more to gain with a 30 whatever Kimbo winning and having a shred of relevance than they do with a 51 year old Shammy winning.

I mean, Kimbo isn't a "lock" but Cain was right?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

On Askham vs "Junior Alpha"

I think the determining factor in this fight is Askham's fitness. I think he's willing to clinch and grind out a victory and can do it for strong pace for 3 rounds. Junior for short, has a 1 round window IMO to land his KO shot. Dude is very strong and he throws hard to kill, but if he doesn't land the KO early, it goes down hill for him.

Askham by dec + Askham 3rd round finish whenever that gets released.

He doesnt have world class grappling. He won the tournament on the brown belt level. Good grappling, but not world class. He can obviously improve, but I don't think his striking will catch up to Backstroem's in such a short time.

Okay fair enough. Still from what I've seen him attempt to do, I think he is very confident in his grappling skills and def have the advantage when he's on top. I don't know if Lahat needs "catching up" to do when comparing striking skills to Backstrom. I don't think Backstrom is a monster by any means standing up. Niklas is a grappler by trade so his striking really is based on his confidence in his ground skills which gets trumped by a guy slightly better than him in that area. I'd tread very lightly on this fight.

I won't scare a bet on either side but you gotta consider the dynamics that might change the complex of a fight different from what you've seen in tape. And by that , I'll reiterate my point that Niklas' strong suit is his grappling and his striking complementary to that.

Just my opinion i could be wrong. I'm getting tired of watching tape. I'm breaking down before July even starts. I need a vacay after Machida/Romero

 

[PuertoRican]

Bellator weigh-ins start in 15 minutes: http://www.bellator.com/articles/weighins

3pm PST/6pm EST.

 

[Ukram]

On Askham vs "Junior Alpha"

I think the determining factor in this fight is Askham's fitness. I think he's willing to clinch and grind out a victory and can do it for strong pace for 3 rounds. Junior for short, has a 1 round window IMO to land his KO shot. Dude is very strong and he throws hard to kill, but if he doesn't land the KO early, it goes down hill for him.

Askham by dec + Askham 3rd round finish whenever that gets released.

Was watching both guys ufc debuts, not sure how this plays out but askham has a good pace, major height and reach advantages coming in. Did not see much of his grappling or wrestling since he was getting outworked and off his back where he could not get back up most of the fight, then again have not seen if antonio has good take downs of his own, I heard he is a black belt ju jitsu though.

If I see alpha getting a take down with ease early on something his power and size could do then he maybe able to edge this in top position..... shame could not see any tape of his past fights every search came up with junior dos santos:icon_lol:

 

[ninjadeathcult]

i don't get how people are laying 2:1 on backstrom here. that last fight doesn't make you the least bit hesitant..?

Seem to remember him having a "moment" after his last loss, didn't he jump into the wilkinson interview and say something while he was crying?

Seems like an "emotional" guy..not sure if that is good trait or not

 

[Ukram]

Kimbo slice sherdog interview

http://www.sherdog.com/videos/video...k-Finish-of-Ken-Shamrock-at-Bellator-138-8067

Almost sounds like he does not expect ken to make it into the ring, says he looks good while taking his shredded wheat and ensure

Says he is evolved and now has a ground game.

Kimbo expects r1 finish, suggesting he is not really looking towards r2 or r3.......

Ken shamrock sherdog interview

http://www.sherdog.com/videos/video...Kimbo-Slice-My-Legacy-Shows-Im-no-Coward-8065

Says his body looks great and he is in great shape and had a good training camp, had few days of hard pace and few days off which worked for him. Talks about how kimbo has bad mouthed him called him a coward when his past fights prove otherwise.

kens last 2 wins against these guys

 

[iGnP]

Ken has supplemented "show muscles" Barry. He is old and slow and has absolutely zero chin left. He's not athletic enough mostly likely to even come close to getting ahold of Kimbo's leg. And that is probably his ONLY way to win. If you see the fight hit the ground most likely it will be because Kimbo is teeing off on Ken after dropping him.

Kimbo's odds have dropped to -250 and I'm hitting it for a decent amount. Even if you believe it could be rigged, Bellator has more to gain with a 30 whatever Kimbo winning and having a shred of relevance than they do with a 51 year old Shammy winning.

I mean, Kimbo isn't a "lock" but Cain was right?

Kimbo is 41

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Was watching both guys ufc debuts, not sure how this plays out but askham has a good pace, major height and reach advantages coming in. Did not see much of his grappling or wrestling since he was getting outworked and off his back where he could not get back up most of the fight, then again have not seen if antonio has good take downs of his own, I heard he is a black belt ju jitsu though.

If I see alpha getting a take down with ease early on something his power and size could do then he maybe able to edge this in top position..... shame could not see any tape of his past fights every search came up with junior dos santos:icon_lol:

I don't know too much about him either. Did not know he had a black belt. Even if he was though, I don't think he even wants to play that game with Askham, pointing out again that I don't think he's a guy that gets stronger as the fight goes on and if he plays that game he'll definitely tire himself out.

If he lands something significant and drops Askham, I think his BJJ will come into play in that regard. So I don't think u need to look for Junior pressing for TDs like Magnus Cedenblad did.

 

[mkess101]

Kimbo is 41

LOL okay thought he was late 30's. Either way he has a hell of lot longer time left that he could potentially put a few asses in seats and get a few people to tune in to watch Bellator than Ken does.

 

[EzFlyer]

i don't get why there's so much talk about shamrock-kimbo. just cause scott coker wants it?

what about weichel-pitbull? not to mention a number of decent ufc bouts...

just had to say that. sorry if offensive to anyone.

 

[conmemay]

just wondering, what makes u think Jr dos santos has a bad gas tank? he looked good going at a high pace vs Safarian(sp) and he took that fight on short notice. im more worried about his height disadvantage. Askram is tall 185 and hes a migget 185.

 

[Ukram]

Bellator weigh-ins start in 15 minutes: http://www.bellator.com/articles/weighins

3pm PST/6pm EST.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yzSr2kTdoY

6:40 to see what happen first time round that was as much fight as we got to see :icon_chee

 

[mkess101]

i don't get why there's so much talk about shamrock-kimbo. just cause scott coker wants it?

what about weichel-pitbull? not to mention a number of decent ufc bouts...

just had to say that. sorry if offensive to anyone.

I'm talking about it more only because to me it seems the easiest fight to cap on the card. Whatever else you want to say about this semi-freakshow fight (and it is) it seems to have some terrific value imo. I give Ken let's say a 15-20% chance of winning and I just bet Kimbo at -250.

I think Weichel/Pitbull odds are pretty close to where they should be. Dog or pass I guess but leaning pass.

 

[Ukram]

I don't know too much about him either. Did not know he had a black belt. Even if he was though, I don't think he even wants to play that game with Askham, pointing out again that I don't think he's a guy that gets stronger as the fight goes on and if he plays that game he'll definitely tire himself out.

If he lands something significant and drops Askham, I think his BJJ will come into play in that regard. So I don't think u need to look for Junior pressing for TDs like Magnus Cedenblad did.

just wondering, what makes u think Jr dos santos has a bad gas tank? he looked good going at a high pace vs Safarian(sp) and he took that fight on short notice. im more worried about his height disadvantage. Askram is tall 185 and hes a migget 185.

Yeah he looked good in r2 against saf even could tell his finger dislocated and he popped it back in but yeah he should never have waved and said stop that is an instant verbal tap out I would imagine.

If alpha dos santos works his grappling and take downs he could find similar success here, he definitely has the build for it but can't confirm if he has any grappling and wrestling game id imagine yes with that build and his bjj black belt though....

It feels like a card with underdogs or anything goes tbh