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This is a nice post reb and I agree with pretty much everything you say and suffice it to say I am in agreement with where are you are leaning. That said, I think that Sasaki uses his superior wrestling and grappling to bring the fight to the mat and ultimately slap an RNC on Lapilus and get the tap. basically, Sasaki is far better than the version of him that showed up to fight a very good fighter in Leandro Issa and you would expect this from a then 24-year-old kid who only had a single UFC fight to his name prior to the Issa loss.
at 5 foot 10 Sasaki is a very large Bantamweight and his frame is long and strong and absolutely perfect for his style of fighting which is grappling. With a background in Greco Roman wrestling "Ulka" loves to lock up with his opponent and use his long chassis to envelope his foe like a spider bringing his prey into its web -- for Ulka, his web is the mat, and his finishing technique is the RNC to which he has 9 of.
Lapilus is a promising fighter and a good future prospect in his own right, and I think that this is obvious as the UFC had initially matched him up against veteran Dennis Siver before the Swedish AC Said " umm... No can do". For a consolation prize Sean Shelby gave him Sasaki. Physically Taylor is very strong, however the 23-year-old Frenchman has fought the bulk of his career above his natural 135 pound weight competing against featherweights and even lightweights in Europe. With a shiny 9-1 record and with those wins coming against bigger opponents, it looks pretty good on paper until you dig deeper and discover that Taylor's prior three opponents before coming to the UFC were 2-8 and Osman Minbatirov (1-3) took Taylor all three rounds only to lose a split decision. Aside from Rocky Lee, the only fighter who Taylor has fought with a winning record is to 9-0 WSOF bantamweight prospect Magomed Bibulatov and he lost.
Styles make fights and this is a pretty good match up for the Japanese fighter because Taylor is also a grappler and he doesn't possess the punching power to threaten Sasaki with and keep him off of him. Most likely Sasaki is going to pressure Taylor and push him up against the fence where he will have a 2 inch advantage in the height department and will use his long strong frame to bring the fight to the canvas where he will most likely lock up a body triangle and submit the young Lapilus sometime late in round two after Ulka has worn the Frenchman down.
Although I am very confident that Ulka will get the victory, at the current odds of -270 I would not lay the juice. However, I do think that Taylor is good enough on the ground that he can probably survive the first round and late into the second -- ergo, the o/u should be looked at given that it is set at 1.5 rounds and the over is at a decent price of -140.
i will probably do two units on the over -140 at all I will make this official or not tomorrow after I do a bit more research.
