Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

[Joseph Budden]

Trying to think of someone who pulled off a sub over a far superior submission/bjj guy where I was like "Wow no freaking way!" Maybe...

...but Hughes had at least won fights by sub previously. With all the MMA I've watched the fact I can't come up with at least a few right off the top of my head says yeah it's pretty damn rare. Cain isn't subbing Werdum, it's not gonna happen. -1000 even has value.

Hughes was a damn good submission grappler who would attempt subs on anyone, and if i'm not mistaken even partook is submission grappling matches against high level guys. Cain is pretty much just a wrestler, and if I could bet "Velasquez's attempts zero subs vs Werdum" I would go heavy on it lol

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I would have done this. I mean, cmon Cain not by sub should've been -4000.

I heavily considered it. I thought at DEAD minimum it should have been -2500. It doesn't matter anyway now, since the flight is canceled along with a bunch of other plays I loved on the fight...

 

[Joseph Budden]

Definitely. I just plan on doing what I was originally going to do. Which was to put in ~ -1000 plays that had "value". I have been looking at NOT Rosholt itd -930 to put in. When I'm playing serious (risking around 1u+) parlays I tend to opt for safety instead of reward. Usually not "~ -1000 safe" lol, but I try to stick to a theme.

By the way, I seriously liked that Cain NOT by SUB -750 prop so much, I was seriously thinking about betting it $750 for $100. No joke lol.

Speaking of "safe" parlays, I do them almost every event too. Might do one more when full props are released, but this is mine for UFC on FOX

Was torn whether to play Not Barn itd or Not Rothwell itd. Whatever fuck it, think that goes the distance anyway. Prob should've just left that fight out though.

 

[mkess101]

Speaking of "safe" parlays, I do them almost every event too. Might do one more when full props are released, but this is mine for UFC on FOX

Was torn whether to play Not Barn itd or Not Rothwell itd. Whatever fuck it, think that goes the distance anyway. Prob should've just left that fight out though.

Yikes on not Bader itd. I could see him with a stoppage in rds 3-5 if Rumble tires out at all. Plus I think Bader does have some power.

I'm guessing you have plays on Bader rd 4 and Bader rd 5 anyway so if he stops Rumble late you're getting paid. +3450 and +4450 make it almost impossible not to put SOMETHING on those.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yikes on not Bader itd. I could see him with a stoppage in rds 3-5 if Rumble tires out at all. Plus I think Bader does have some power.

I'm guessing you have plays on Bader rd 4 and Bader rd 5 anyway so if he stops Rumble late you're getting paid. +3450 and +4450 make it almost impossible not to put SOMETHING on those.

I have Bader in 4 and 5. Honestly though, even if AJ gasses a bit and Bader gets him in deep waters, I think its highly unlikely he finishes. Hes never been much of a finisher despite his power, and OSP gassed pretty badly in their fight but Bader didn't come close to stopping him

 

[EzFlyer]

Definitely. I just plan on doing what I was originally going to do. Which was to put in ~ -1000 plays that had "value". I have been looking at NOT Rosholt itd -930 to put in. When I'm playing serious (risking around 1u+) parlays I tend to opt for safety instead of reward. Usually not "~ -1000 safe" lol, but I try to stick to a theme.

By the way, I seriously liked that Cain NOT by SUB -750 prop so much, I was seriously thinking about betting it $750 for $100. No joke lol.

i'm w/you on all of this.

every point.

i do "theme" (price theme) parlays, too. i hate when i see parlays of like a +250 guy with a -250 guy. that hurts my brain!!

and yea, that shit is never hitting. wtf would make werdum tap!? never happening. -9800 has value, cause i'll give it 1% chance to hit. so -9900 is break even!

 

[mkess101]

I have Bader in 4 and 5. Honestly though, even if AJ gasses a bit and Bader gets him in deep waters, I think its highly unlikely he finishes. Hes never been much of a finisher despite his power, and OSP gassed pretty badly in their fight but Bader didn't come close to stopping him

LOL go rewatch the fights where AJ has gotten tired. I hate saying guys "quit", but he...puts up VERY little resistance when he's tired. If he looks really tired heading into rd 4 I will be hammering Bader via live bet if odds are even decent. Even if Bader is behind on the cards.

 

[mkess101]

i'm w/you on all of this.

every point.

i do "theme" (price theme) parlays, too. i hate when i see parlays of like a +250 guy with a -250 guy. that hurts my brain!!

and yea, that shit is never hitting. wtf would make werdum tap!? never happening. -9800 has value, cause i'll give it 1% chance to hit. so -9900 is break even!

I will throw a few silly lotto ticket parlays in there with props and stuff that have high payouts but they are honestly just for fun and I put like a dollar on them. Maybe 3-5 per card. I've hit a couple for a few hundred bucks, have probably spent that and more over the years on them though LOL.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

i do "theme" (price theme) parlays, too. i hate when i see parlays of like a +250 guy with a -250 guy. that hurts my brain!!

Thought I was the only one. Lmfao. I can't explain it but I hate it too. It shouldn't be a bad thing but for some reason I gotta stick with the theme.

 

[mkess101]

Thought I was the only one. Lmfao. I can't explain it but I hate it too. It shouldn't be a bad thing but for some reason I gotta stick with the theme.

You are the parlay king. Got a couple with + odds and high payouts for my "lotto tickets" this weekend? I remember some of the ones you've posted.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

You are the parlay king. Got a couple with + odds and high payouts for my "lotto tickets" this weekend? I remember some of the ones you've posted.

$30.00 $1,044.96 Pending 2 Team Parlay

Pending 1/30/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1511 Ferreira wins by 3 round decision +459* vs Not Ferreira by 3 round decision
Pending 1/30/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Jackson wins by 3 round decision +541* vs Not Jackson by 3 round decision


Expecting to lose obviously, but cross your fingers lol. I think there's a bunch of parlay potential on this card and most of them are Fighter X by decision (-105/+130ish, etc). The right mix and match will be a winner but maybe it might be a better idea just to single play all of them for a better chance to hit. I have an idea of who I want to combine but I haven't played it yet.

 

[Ukram]

Agree with value on CDF over OAM, but I did notice his 3rd degree bjj black belt cannot see the bjj practitioner who gave it to him, he also then has his team called "Team Ferreira". For a guy that started mma 5 years ago just like oam did CDF seems to have started a bit late and now 31, oam is 26 also.

CDF has shown good skills off his back and is looking for subs but there were times where opponents could gain mount and come off when they wanted, putting in a stronger guy like oam I would imagine makes it just as hard for cdf if not worse. I still think oam gets a decision or the overs hit, perhaps hedged with cdf sub.

 

[Ukram]

I think there's a TON of value still in Natal -165 and Natal dec +130. Casey's striking is mediocre at best, he doesn't get his TRT and is flat out admitting it will have a negative affect on him, and his wrestling isn't very good. Yeah, he has solid bjj but probably not a very good chance at all of getting it to the ground. Natal is no world beater but he's a better striker and his grappling is plenty good enough to hang with Casey even if the fight should hit the mat. I love Natal's ML, like his dec line at +130, and think there's value in the over 2.5 at -155 as well.

Natal isn't good enough to really be a lock over anyone who's found their way into the UFC, but Casey really seems like terrific fade material at this point imo.

Natal is also a black belt bjj, but no mention of practitioner for both guys it is a bit tricky to bet su on natal especially with his split decision love, but judges do seem to like his activity and movement in general, natal also knows when to steal rounds and knows when to put his grinding pressure on id imagine against casey it tires him out even more so he does have to be careful though casey does possess that freakish 1 punch knock down power.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Nothin like a hail mary parlay

 

[mkess101]

$30.00 $1,044.96 Pending 2 Team Parlay

Pending 1/30/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1511 Ferreira wins by 3 round decision +459* vs Not Ferreira by 3 round decision
Pending 1/30/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Jackson wins by 3 round decision +541* vs Not Jackson by 3 round decision


Expecting to lose obviously, but cross your fingers lol. I think there's a bunch of parlay potential on this card and most of them are Fighter X by decision (-105/+130ish, etc). The right mix and match will be a winner but maybe it might be a better idea just to single play all of them for a better chance to hit. I have an idea of who I want to combine but I haven't played it yet.

LOL I actually do have Jackson by dec as a straight bet already. I think Mak being overvalued a bit but I don't think Jackson finishes him even if he does pull the upset. Really like that line.

I like this parlay. I think others have said they think Ferreira will be right there with OAM. Think I will play this one for a little, why not?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Agree with value on CDF over OAM, but I did notice his 3rd degree bjj black belt cannot see the bjj practitioner who gave it to him, he also then has his team called "Team Ferreira". For a guy that started mma 5 years ago just like oam did CDF seems to have started a bit late and now 31, oam is 26 also.

CDF has shown good skills off his back and is looking for subs but there were times where opponents could gain mount and come off when they wanted, putting in a stronger guy like oam I would imagine makes it just as hard for cdf if not worse. I still think oam gets a decision or the overs hit, perhaps hedged with cdf sub.

I never play long odds like these without having covered myself in the process already. I paid the juice on the o2.5 (-190) so I have some leeway in 'gambling' on the odds here. I would pay the juice on OAM if he were to fight a guy I know he can slap his go-to RNC on, but I can't imagine OAM riding CDF's back for extended periods of time unless CDF's BJJ BB really is a McBelt, but I doubt it from the advanced sweeps I've seen of his. In the end, the biggest factor in playing a fight like this is the odds. There is no value in the ML of OAM against a guy who matches him strength for strength. Take away the betting odds and if you were to ask me to pick who I thought would win, I'd probably lean towards OAM. I won't steer anyone away from taking OAM by dec but I like money, and money likes me and I'll gamble on the big multiplier.

Legend:
OAM - Olivier aubin-mercier
CDF - carlos diego Ferriera
RNC - Rear Naked Choke
BB - Black Belt
BJJ - brazillian jiu jitsu

 

[LEMONZEST]

I have:

Barbarena
Rosholt
Bader
Barnett

all by decision, 2 bucks returns 1245

 

[Ukram]

All valid points. I really dont trust Bader's chin tho i think Rumble only needs to connect once for Bader to do the merry dance.

Saturday 10pm could not come anytime sooner, if not to see aj get the ko lol

how did you play aj anyhow su or via ko with that saff parlay ?

I think it still hits but its a legit worry, if it was 3 rounds then even id play that parlay but 5 rounds is just a bit more advantage in bader's game plan and style.

I think everyone has pretty much nailed most b/ds and on similar pages though in how the fights may go on this event!

 

[mkess101]

Nothin like a hail mary parlay

Payout on this one dropped to like $1500 with no Werdum in there LOL.

 

[Ukram]

Hope we get some early live betting (ill start praying early) some nice value on the underdogs like jackson, dwyer, fullen, carlos and few others.

Should be great for live betting