Official UFC 196 Thread

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Turp11 said:
i disagree with playing tate +5.5 I think 5 rds is a long time to be eating combos
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I'll take my chances at + odds. If Julie Werner can almost go the full 5 with Holm and Angela Hayes can go three, I think there is a strong argument to give Tate the benefit of the doubt here.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I'm really starting to like Ishihara +200, NOT Erosa itd -252, and maybe Ishihara itd +555. Okay, where do I start... This is mostly a fade on Erosa. First off, Erosa's record is pretty fucking padded. So is his high finish rate. His manager did a great job in getting fights tailored to him. All of the guy's he's finished have mainly lost by finish... He has also beat the same can 3 times and another can 2 times. Secondly, IIRC, I thought he lost most/all his fights on TUF, AND he arguably lost his first official fight in the UFC. Just by going off his TUF fights and his only UFC fight, he barely has any power and he is pretty hittable while Ishihara has some pop. In the real world I bet he couldn't finish a fucking 1 mm thick piece of a glass window. I think this fight should be close to evens maybe Erosa VERY SLIGHT favorite, like -125 or so
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the NOT erosa ITD bit is potentially interesting to me
 
Oblivian said:
I'll take my chances at + odds. If Julie Werner can almost go the full 5 with Holm and Angela Hayes can go three, I think there is a strong argument to give Tate the benefit of the doubt here.
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i do think holly's improved since then, but yea, i might be on board here
 
diaz/conor to touch gloves +400 on unibet? i am kinda surprised by these odds.. these guys seem to respect each other at some level.. conor even touched gloves with mendes despite having alot more trashtalk
 
Holy shit, Miller -135 vs Sanchez? Bombing that, thought it would be -300.
Sanchez is frankly terrible. Miller is on the decline but he's lost to top fighters and he wasn't getting destroyed.
And Sanchez has very little finishing ability or wrestling. He only wins the way he always wins; throw haymakers that miss and turn it on a bit in the third.
 
Just rewatched Lim vs Guimaraes to refresh myself on Marcelo.

Yeesh. He ducks down after almost everything he throws. Lim kept throwing that straight knee, took him almost 2 rounds, but finally timed a good one. It won't take Miranda that long if this is a habit Marcelo stll has. That straight knee is one of his best weapons.

I'm also not impressed with his takedown game. Its all timing. He has no set ups. The two he scored on Lim were off an ill advised flying knee at the end of round 1, and an over extended straight. I don't see Miranda making those mistakes.

I know Lim is one of the biggest WWs, but also interesting to note Marcelo looked under sizes vs Lim, is moving up to 185 and Miranda has fought at 205 and even at HW on TUF Brazil.

So yeah, I favor Miranda in a huge way. Since hes a big favorite i'm forced into a 2 teamer to make some dough off him. Eyeing one with him and Silva.
 
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Gametheory said:
Holy shit, Miller -135 vs Sanchez? Bombing that, thought it would be -300.
Sanchez is frankly terrible. Miller is on the decline but he's lost to top fighters and he wasn't getting destroyed.
And Sanchez has very little finishing ability or wrestling. He only wins the way he always wins; throw haymakers that miss and turn it on a bit in the third.
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if this was a 1 round fight i'd be all over miller. it's not. miller will gas by the end of the 2nd.

confident jim will edge rd 1.
uncertain who takes rd 2
confident diego edges round 3
 
Joseph Budden said:
Just rewatched Lim vs Guimaraes to refresh myself on Marcelo.

Yeesh. He ducks down after almost everything he throws. Lim kept throwing that straight knee, took him almost 2 rounds, but finally timed a good one. It won't take Miranda that long if this is a habit Marcelo stll has. That straight knee is one of his best weapons.

I'm also not impressed with his takedown game. Its all timing. He has no set ups. The two he scored on Lim were off an ill advised flying knee at the end of round 1, and an over extended straight. I don't see Miranda making those mistakes.

I know Lim is one of the biggest WWs, but also interesting to note Marcelo is moving up to 185 and Miranda has fought at 205 and even at HW on TUF Brazil.

So yeah, I favor Miranda in a huge way. Since hes a big favorite i'm forced into a 2 teamer to make some dough off him. Eyeing one with him and Silva.
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yea. i'm not the type who plays guys near -300, but i think miranda all day here.

guimares has no standup.. and like you said he doesnt' set up his takedowns well...
 


Doing Card's job :D

interesting things to note
  • Skelly is no longer with Team Takedown. Idk whats going on over there, but Hendricks left them as well. Seems like it might have something to do with Marc Laimon since both he and Hendricks still used other Team Takedown coaches.
  • He is now training with a local gym. Says the change has been "bad timing" as it happened during camp.....
  • Using the same guy Hendrick's used for his weight cut
  • Working hard to be in top shape so grinder Elkins doesn't wear him out, which he thinks is the biggest worry in this style matchup
  • Trains with Cody Pfister to prepare for Elkins......
 
wack3d said:
diaz/conor to touch gloves +400 on unibet? i am kinda surprised by these odds.. these guys seem to respect each other at some level.. conor even touched gloves with mendes despite having alot more trashtalk
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like at the opening bell? or at any point?
 
wack3d said:
diaz/conor to touch gloves +400 on unibet? i am kinda surprised by these odds.. these guys seem to respect each other at some level.. conor even touched gloves with mendes despite having alot more trashtalk
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Would not stab. Has Nate ever touched gloves?
 
Looked it up, Nate didn't touch gloves the last 4 times he was in a fight where they brought them to the centre of the cage (Miller, Maynard, Hendo, Cerrone).

McGregor is 2-2 (not with Aldo and Siver, yes with Mendes and Brandao).

Miranda/Guimaraes not to go the distance -110 with Ladbrokes?
 
EzFlyer said:
jesus -165 now? i'm tempted to do NOT anderson DEC
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No bet for me. I think this line is pretty close to being right. Anderson is better. Better athlete, and should be able to impose his wrestling. But I doubt he finishes Lawler.
 
EzFlyer said:
if this was a 1 round fight i'd be all over miller. it's not. miller will gas by the end of the 2nd.

confident jim will edge rd 1.
uncertain who takes rd 2
confident diego edges round 3
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He gasses againt high pressure fighters who are also very physical, like Chiesa
Diego starts slowly in round 1 and he not that strong. Miller is not getting bullied around.
And it's not as if he gasses every time.

Miller has better striking, wrestling and the BJJ will cancel each other out.
Diego only wins by fluke judging, though he has done that a bunch of times already.

Still pissed about losing my Pearson bet, vs Diego.
 
Joseph Budden said:


Doing Card's job :D

interesting things to note
  • Skelly is no longer with Team Takedown. Idk whats going on over there, but Hendricks left them as well. Seems like it might have something to do with Marc Laimon since both he and Hendricks still used other Team Takedown coaches.
  • He is now training with a local gym. Says the change has been "bad timing" as it happened during camp.....
  • Using the same guy Hendrick's used for his weight cut
  • Working hard to be in top shape so grinder Elkins doesn't wear him out, which he thinks is the biggest worry in this style matchup
  • Trains with Cody Pfister to prepare for Elkins......
Click to expand...


intersting.. thanks for the info :) only have the over in a parlay but this kinda makes me want to stab on Elkins
 
also thinking about betting Nunes and Miller. very likely they win first round and pretty much no chance they get finished so if they start to slow down it should be easy to hedge on livebet
 
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