Official UFC 196 Thread

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I'm curious to see a size comparison between Miesha and holly
 
mkess101 said:
I tend to agree. My main reason for this is that I really wonder if Conor will be as aggressive in trying to finish if he doesn't get Nate out of there inside 2 rounds. Everyone Conor has hit has crumbled. What if Nate doesn't? Maybe this will be the time he steps off the gas and decides to use his speed edge to coast a bit.
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agreed, nate diaz is probably the ufc fighter i relate most to as a human whereas mcgregor might be my absolute antithesis, which is probably clouding my judgement. but...

if conor isn't able to bully the bigger fighter and knock him out early, the later rounds of the fight could get VERY interesting.
 
for anyone backing miesha, whats the logic behind your pick? what flaws do you see in holly's game?
 
EzFlyer said:
It's So weird.

I had mendes & aldo vs mcgoat. Was Prolly gonna do rda.

Yet against Diaz I have my biggest bet in a couple years... (I might hedge it substantially)

You had mcgoat on all 3 of those yet you're scared of Diaz...

Bizarro-world!
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I'm the same way... McGoat proved long ago that he can KO midgets who are scared of his boxing, either rushing him wildly or backing up to the fence as a reaction. There is a lot of uncertainty in this fight in terms of size and boxing ability, and then Diaz also has some random paths to victory with subs.
 
Miesha 5'5" 64" reach
Holly 5'8" 69" reach

Miesha doesn't even have a kicking game to give her any range qualities. Safe to say Holly is going to pick her apart at range, maybe even score the TKO in the later rounds. Miesha literally needs to eat punches to fight her way in the clinch and even then Holly is pretty strong and she's got great movement.
 
Going with Holly and McGregor parlay (possibly TKO one). Thinking of adding 3rd fight to it but not sure which one. Nunes maybe?
 
I'm really starting to like Ishihara +200, NOT Erosa itd -252, and maybe Ishihara itd +555. Okay, where do I start... This is mostly a fade on Erosa. First off, Erosa's record is pretty fucking padded. So is his high finish rate. His manager did a great job in getting fights tailored to him. All of the guy's he's finished have mainly lost by finish... He has also beat the same can 3 times and another can 2 times. Secondly, IIRC, I thought he lost most/all his fights on TUF, AND he arguably lost his first official fight in the UFC. Just by going off his TUF fights and his only UFC fight, he barely has any power and he is pretty hittable while Ishihara has some pop. In the real world I bet he couldn't finish a fucking 1 mm thick piece of a glass window. I think this fight should be close to evens maybe Erosa VERY SLIGHT favorite, like -125 or so
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I'm really starting to like Ishihara +200, NOT Erosa itd -252, and maybe Ishihara itd +555. Okay, where do I start... This is mostly a fade on Erosa. First off, Erosa's record is pretty fucking padded. So is his high finish rate. His manager did a great job in getting fights tailored to him. All of the guy's he's finished have mainly lost by finish... He has also fought the same can 3 times and another can 2 times. Secondly, IIRC, I thought he lost most/all his fights on TUF, AND he arguably lost his first official fight in the UFC. Just by going off his TUF fights and his only UFC fight, he barely has any power and he is pretty hittable while Ishihara has some pop. In the real world I bet he couldn't finish a fucking 1 mm thick piece of a glass window. I think this fight should be close to evens maybe Erosa VERY slight favorite
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i agree. the height/reach is a concern but he does not seem to use that well and that really seems like the only advantage he has..
 
wack3d said:
i agree. the height/reach is a concern but he does not seem to use that well and that really seems like the only advantage he has..
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Yup, that's literally like the only thing I'm concerned about, and I'm not even really that concerned about it. I also forgot to mention I also really like the o2.5
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I'm really starting to like Ishihara +200, NOT Erosa itd -252, and maybe Ishihara itd +555. Okay, where do I start... This is mostly a fade on Erosa. First off, Erosa's record is pretty fucking padded. So is his high finish rate. His manager did a great job in getting fights tailored to him. All of the guy's he's finished have mainly lost by finish... He has also beat the same can 3 times and another can 2 times. Secondly, IIRC, I thought he lost most/all his fights on TUF, AND he arguably lost his first official fight in the UFC. Just by going off his TUF fights and his only UFC fight, he barely has any power and he is pretty hittable while Ishihara has some pop. In the real world I bet he couldn't finish a fucking 1 mm thick piece of a glass window. I think this fight should be close to evens maybe Erosa VERY SLIGHT favorite, like -125 or so
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I wasn't sure who Erosa or Ishihara was initially and when the openers hit, I saw that Erosa was -270, that's alot of juice for a relative nobody. Then I when I saw Ishihara I remember his fight with Hirota. He looks like a decent guy but I still haven't seen anything from Erosa yet.

BUT an interesting piece of information while trying to figure out where Ishihara was training and upon looking at his instagram, all I see are photos of him partying and going out with his friends. He seems to drink alot because he's always talking about how hung over he is etc.

He's 24 and he's more bout dat lifestyle and I'd think that would be detrimental to his training.

https://www.instagram.com/teru135/
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I wasn't sure who Erosa or Ishihara was initially and when the openers hit, I saw that Erosa was -270, that's alot of juice for a relative nobody. Then I when I saw Ishihara I remember his fight with Hirota. He looks like a decent guy but I still haven't seen anything from Erosa yet.

BUT an interesting piece of information while trying to figure out where Ishihara was training and upon looking at his instagram, all I see are photos of him partying and going out with his friends. He seems to drink alot because he's always talking about how hung over he is etc.

He's 24 and he's more bout dat lifestyle and I'd think that would be detrimental to his training.

https://www.instagram.com/teru135/
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Hmm, that's not exactly something I wanted to hear, but I basically stand by of what I wrote with a very slight decrease in confidence. Most of those party-ish pics are from like 10+ weeks ago while some of his most recent pics are of him training. Hopefully he has put the partying/drinking on hold for the past 6 or so weeks at least
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Miesha 5'5" 64" reach
Holly 5'8" 69" reach

Miesha doesn't even have a kicking game to give her any range qualities. Safe to say Holly is going to pick her apart at range, maybe even score the TKO in the later rounds. Miesha literally needs to eat punches to fight her way in the clinch and even then Holly is pretty strong and she's got great movement.
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Holy shit that's a big reach advantage.
 
Yeah reach/height numbers are always all over the place. But what's important is the person who utilizes it and that's a big part of Holly's game. Miesha will be swinging at air and she will be forced to shoot from an even further distance because Holly is a southpaw and her posture gives the champ even better distance control. Miesha just does not have the footwork to compete with Holly who also moves well laterally so she won't be stationary when Miesha blasts for the double. If you look at Miesha's record, most of her sub wins are by armbar, guess who's been training armbar defense? The stark reality for Miesha is, she needs to consistently grind TDs in a 5 round fight and it takes alot of energy to do that (but not as much energy as being a "rockstar" lol). That guy who bet 77k on Tate probably figures, hey it's a female fight, it's basically a crap shoot. But Holly is a different story she actually has the nuances of a progressive striking style.
 
anybody like the under in the Guimaraes/Miranda fight? Guimaraes been out close to two years, first fight with the new drug testing (kinda look like somebody hwo might have had some help) he has poor striking defence and going up against a fighter with much better striking and big reach advantage for Miranda 77' to 73'

i was very surprised to see the under is all the way up to +110 now itd is -120.. pays alot better then Miranda itd -140 :D
 
wack3d said:
anybody like the under in the Guimaraes/Miranda fight? Guimaraes been out close to two years, first fight with the new drug testing (kinda look like somebody hwo might have had some help) he has poor striking defence and going up against a fighter with much better striking and big reach advantage for Miranda 77' to 73'

i was very surprised to see the under is all the way up to +110 now itd is -120.. pays alot better then Miranda itd -140 :D
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I'll wait for the KO prop and I'll be playing it at +odds if it's offered. Sucks it has to be -140. I'm expecting a head kick. Only thing I'm slightly worried about is how easily it is to clinch with Miranda because of his K-1 background they tend to cover up (big gloves) and trade leg kicks or things in that nature. He doesn't really have the ringcraft of an MMA striker.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I'll wait for the KO prop and I'll be playing it at +odds. Sucks it has to be -140. I'm expecting a head kick. Only thing I'm slightly worried about is how easily it is to clinch with Miranda because of his K-1 background they tend to cover up (big gloves) and trade leg kicks or things in that nature. He doesn't really have the ringcraft of an MMA striker.
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i doubt it will pay well given how low his itd line is.. hope i am wrong though :)
 
Anyone thinking this will be an easy fight for Holm please rewatch her fights with Pennington and Reneau. Although I think she won both clearly, she did lose rounds. Holly has shown a very limited offense game in the UFC, and a tendency to throw a 3-4 piece combo from beginning to end with seemingly no care to what her opponent is doing. It looks like she is hitting pads out there. Her defensive IQ seems to be high, offensively I still think shes severely lacking.

Ronda running at her like a mongloid on the loose shouldn't have anyone thinking she will back Miesha up and finish her. I still like Holly to win as she has an incredible mix of strength and balance that will her help her keep the fight standing and the length and fundamentals standing to steadily earn points, I just dont see it ITD. Miesha's only chance is to land the fake TD to overhand right combo that she hit Jessica Eye with over and over and over..
 
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