Official UFC 196 Thread

[Rebel_LioN]

Anyone thinking this will be an easy fight for Holm please rewatch her fights with Pennington and Reneau. Yes I think she won both clearly, although she did lose rounds in both. Holly has shown a very limited offense game in the UFC. With a tendency to throw a 3-4 piece combo from beginning to end with seemingly no care to what her opponent is doing. Its like shes hitting pads out there. Ronda running at her like a mongloid on the loose shouldnt have anything thinking she can back fighters up and finish them. I still like to win, just not ITD.

The bold kind of contradicts itself. She's out there throwing 3-4 combos therefore she must be good at offense. Anyways, I actually don't think she has a limited offensive game, I think she stays technical and doesn't need to throw with alot of power. She focuses more on precision and movement. I've seen side kicks, head kicks, straight punches, elbows, knees, clinch fighting, I beg to differ I think she has a good repertoire. Miesha is going to expend alot of energy shooting for TDs, only to get stuffed and Holly does a great job of striking off the break. I think a finish is not out of the question if she masks that head kick once Miesha is exhausted from getting picked at.

Reneau is a respectable striker I see good technique out of that chick. Pennington also is a scrappy girl and both of them were shut down completely aside from a few punches that got through to Holly. People tend to echo they were bad performances but I differ in opinion. They probably had hyped Holly to be some killer boxing champion and were let down because she wasn't knocking people out hoping she'd be a challenge to Rousey down the line. Those were her expectations. Instead, I saw those fights as Holly developing her ringcraft and as a result, she has the style today. She's going to look even better than those performances against a wrestler by trade.

And she's coming off the a high profile win over Ronda, you can't possibly think she'll become stagnant now that she's champ. She's going to continue to grow with even better performances. Her style is going to keep her undefeated until she retires after cleaning out the division that's my prediction.

 

[Agent Mulder]

So sick of hearing about the split decision vs Pennington. It was only a split because one judge was retarded. Both that fight and the Reneau fight was impressive IMO. She made them both look silly.

 

[Ballsaque]

anybody like the under in the Guimaraes/Miranda fight? Guimaraes been out close to two years, first fight with the new drug testing (kinda look like somebody hwo might have had some help) he has poor striking defence and going up against a fighter with much better striking and big reach advantage for Miranda 77' to 73'

i was very surprised to see the under is all the way up to +110 now itd is -120.. pays alot better then Miranda itd -140

Yes. Guimaraes is terrible, and so slow. Miranda has all stoppages.

 

[Sham5916910]

Just want to add we saw how strong Holm is when she took Ronda down with a body lock. Tate was completely over powered by Ronda.

 

[Slohog]

I wasn't sure who Erosa or Ishihara was initially and when the openers hit, I saw that Erosa was -270, that's alot of juice for a relative nobody. Then I when I saw Ishihara I remember his fight with Hirota. He looks like a decent guy but I still haven't seen anything from Erosa yet.

BUT an interesting piece of information while trying to figure out where Ishihara was training and upon looking at his instagram, all I see are photos of him partying and going out with his friends. He seems to drink alot because he's always talking about how hung over he is etc.

He's 24 and he's more bout dat lifestyle and I'd think that would be detrimental to his training.

https://www.instagram.com/teru135/

Anyone who drinks this crap can't be trusted with my money:

That said I was looking at him too before I saw this.

 

[Card]

This has been posted already, but here's the video

"Definitely a tough fight; Diego doesn't stop. He's one of those guys who's kind of changed throughout his career. At the beginning of his career, he was more of a grappler, but now he just kind of brawls because he's made some bonuses doing that. You hear those birdies chirping in your ear and you kind of change your style a little bit to get noticed. I'm going to have to choke him unconscious and that's what I'm looking to do."

 

[Oblivian]

Anyone thinking this will be an easy fight for Holm please rewatch her fights with Pennington and Reneau. Although I think she won both clearly, she did lose rounds. Holly has shown a very limited offense game in the UFC, and a tendency to throw a 3-4 piece combo from beginning to end with seemingly no care to what her opponent is doing. It looks like she is hitting pads out there. Her defensive IQ seems to be high, offensively I still think shes severely lacking.

Ronda running at her like a mongloid on the loose shouldn't have anyone thinking she will back Miesha up and finish her. I still like Holly to win as she has an incredible mix of strength and balance that will her help her keep the fight standing and the length and fundamentals standing to steadily earn points, I just dont see it ITD. Miesha's only chance is to land the fake TD to overhand right combo that she hit Jessica Eye with over and over and over..

I agree with a lot of what you said. I like the +5.5 for Meisha at the upper +100s. Holm has been to decision in three of her last five, and one of those finishes was late in the fifth. I also think she can lose rounds by being inactive, and she can simply drop rounds if clinched against the fence. I think the important thing here is that Tate will be changing levels instead of just running in upright for the clinch. I think it will keep Holm more tentative. I think if Holm wins, it's very likely to go to decision and I think it's fairly likely that it's closer than expected.

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

There was talk how Holm was taking it easy her first few UFC fights (playing possum) so she would get the fight with Rousey.

 

[Oblivian]

So sick of hearing about the split decision vs Pennington. It was only a split because one judge was retarded. Both that fight and the Reneau fight was impressive IMO. She made them both look silly.

I think it's fair to say 29-28 Holm was the most rational and agreed upon score, but what is important is that she wasn't supposed to even lose a round. The +3.5 was in the +200s. Holm ITD was approaching even odds. I think people have Holm mistaken as a dominant finisher.

 

[Oblivian]

There was talk how Holm was taking it easy her first few UFC fights (playing possum) so she would get the fight with Rousey.

How does that even make sense? She fought exactly the same in AXS. In her two fights prior to entering the UFC, she had a late fifth round finish and a decision. This isn't really a knock on her as you don't have to be an overaggressive finisher to be very successful, but people really think she is just playing that up when she could be finishing early? Come on.

 

[jwms]

for anyone backing miesha, whats the logic behind your pick? what flaws do you see in holly's game?

I can see logic behind the pick. Miesha's got some next level tenacity. And she's decently smart, as a fighter. I don't think she possesses much skill; she just outworks her opponents. Miesha's pretty bad standing up, slow hands, poor takedowns, above average ground game, lacking strength for the division. When she fought Jessica Eye, Eye was picking her apart with jabs early on. Towards the end of the first round, Tate was already beat up, and she started opening up and just launching herself into big swings to get through Eye's jab. Then she broke Eye.

McMann was a similar deal. McMann was the stronger, better fighter, and she had Tate beat. But Miesha gritted her way through it and wound up winning.

So betting on Tate over Holm can be logical. It's a bet on fight IQ: Tate adjusts well in fights, and even if she's sort of mediocre everywhere at best, she's so tenacious that she's a little dangerous everywhere because she'll take risks. And because she's smart, she can control things better if the fight ever gets to the ground. We've seen Holm control distances, fight a disciplined fight, but we've also seen her susceptible to gritty fighters. Now, Pennington's big and strong and can impose her will better than Tate in my opinion, but that's still a 'grit' performance that Pennington put on -- and Tate's capable of bringing a similar sort of fight.

 

[Card]

This one thing Diego has going for him is Jackson's MMA

 

[SirKratos]

Holm by Dec +160

Skelly ITD +234

Thatch-Bahadurzada U2.5 -125

Anderson by Dec +165

Villante-Latifi O1.5 -125


What do you guys think about these odds ?

 

[Joseph Budden]

I wasn't sure who Erosa or Ishihara was initially and when the openers hit, I saw that Erosa was -270, that's alot of juice for a relative nobody. Then I when I saw Ishihara I remember his fight with Hirota. He looks like a decent guy but I still haven't seen anything from Erosa yet.

BUT an interesting piece of information while trying to figure out where Ishihara was training and upon looking at his instagram, all I see are photos of him partying and going out with his friends. He seems to drink alot because he's always talking about how hung over he is etc.

He's 24 and he's more bout dat lifestyle and I'd think that would be detrimental to his training.

https://www.instagram.com/teru135/

Lmaooo yeah that sounds like Ishihara. One of his more endearing qualities is how honest he is with his love of partying, but hopefully he's not going too crazy in the weeks leading up to this fight

On a positive note, he trains with Michinori Tanaka. Forgot the name of the camp those guys come from, but know it's one of the better gyms in Japan

This is unrelated to this style matchup, but a slight plus is Ishihara has shown he can deal with a striking style Erosa couldn't. Wicky Akiyo is basically a better, more varied, more creative version of Artem and Ishihara beat Wicky. On the other hand, Erosa got KTFO bad by Artem.

 

[rille31]

Holm by Dec +160

Skelly ITD +234

Thatch-Bahadurzada U2.5 -125

Anderson by Dec +165

Villante-Latifi O1.5 -125


What do you guys think about these odds ?

that anderson dec looks sweet

 

[Joseph Budden]

Jesus some bettors are so stupid.

Conor ML = -440

Conor itd = -510

 

[Turp11]

I agree with a lot of what you said. I like the +5.5 for Meisha at the upper +100s. Holm has been to decision in three of her last five, and one of those finishes was late in the fifth. I also think she can lose rounds by being inactive, and she can simply drop rounds if clinched against the fence. I think the important thing here is that Tate will be changing levels instead of just running in upright for the clinch. I think it will keep Holm more tentative. I think if Holm wins, it's very likely to go to decision and I think it's fairly likely that it's closer than expected.

i disagree with playing tate +5.5 I think 5 rds is a long time to be eating combos

 

[SirKratos]

Jesus some bettors are so stupid.

Conor ML = -440

Conor itd = -510

ML ?

 

[Joseph Budden]

ML ?

Money line