Official UFC 173 Betting Thread (Part III)

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Got. Unit on Spurs +2 not feeling good about it. I think this is a trap game like someone said previously.
 
GAP14 said:
This may sound awfully far fetched but if Munozs line keeps creeping up I'm gonna take a stab on him by decision. Mousasi has been beaten by lesser wrestlers (King Mo). If you look at their opponents records, Munoz has only lost to elite competition. Mousasi struggles against excellent wrestlers, if he can avoid Mousasi's striking and get him down early, he can make this a dog fight.
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Dude King Mo is not a lesser wrestler. Munoz has trouble with his takedowns in MMA. I see him struggling for the takedown and getting out-struck, if he does manage to get the takedown, he will get worked by Mousasi.
 
Junior Cigano said:
Dude King Mo is not a lesser wrestler. Munoz has trouble with his takedowns in MMA. I see him struggling for the takedown and getting out-struck, if he does manage to get the takedown, he will get worked by Mousasi.
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His takedown accuracy is lackluster but I think he has the tangibles to take Mousasi down specifically. Of course he had trouble taking down weidman, machida, etc. all of them have exceptional TDD.
 
Munoz had problems taking down Kendall Grove FFS. Same with Chris Leben. His MMA wrestling is abysmal for how credentialed he is.
 
Goreds1994 said:
Munoz had problems taking down Kendall Grove FFS. Same with Chris Leben. His MMA wrestling is abysmal for how credentialed he is.
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I agree with this sentiment but to his credit when he gets someone down he can keep them there, his Bjj and too game are underrated IMO as we only see him GNP

With odds I like Munoz

Mousasi too passive
 
french open day 2

0.5u pospisil +5.5
0.5u klahn +5
1u garcia-lopez +7
2u dodig +4
0.5u andujar +5.5
1u falla ML +135
1u lopez -2.5 sets
1u bautista-agut -2.5 sets
1u benneteau -2.5 sets
1.4u nishikori -2.5 sets
 
After the past 2 ufc cards, any bet on any dog is automatically justified.
 
Gift_-_Top_12_Biggest_MMA_Upsets_medium.jpg



This list is from BloodyElbow. This list is prior to the Dillashaw/Barao fight. Dillashaw is now at #3 on that list of upsets, as they listed Barao as being a -910 favorite.
 
where is the dude who mock me with his "free money - Barao significant strikes bet" now???
 
GAP14 said:
Got. Unit on Spurs +2 not feeling good about it. I think this is a trap game like someone said previously.
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Was definitely a trap game. I didn't know Ibaka was returning. Spurs put the bench out pretty early in the 4th.

I tend to have more success when I bet against the public's perception.

But that still hasn't stopped me from betting Heat -6.5 tonite :D They're playing in Miami and there are no hidden variables unless Heat takes an off night.
 
Thoughts on this? pays out nicely

5/31/2014 3:00 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Mark Munoz/Gegard Mousasi* Over 2
 
OneWarrior1 said:
Was definitely a trap game. I didn't know Ibaka was returning. Spurs put the bench out pretty early in the 4th.

I tend to have more success when I bet against the public's perception.

But that still hasn't stopped me from betting Heat -6.5 tonite :D They're playing in Miami and there are no hidden variables unless Heat takes an off night.
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the refs made sure the thunder won the game. dont get me wrong, the spurs werent sharp but the free throw disparity was awful. i played the thunder and im happy i won but that game def influenced by some iffy calls.

i honestly cant get a good read on the miami-indiana series. indiana should have covered last game but they just folded in the fourth quarter. i cant see why they cant keep it close. we cant expect ray allen to go what, 5/5 in threes in a quarter again

good luck with that bet though, i might tail
 
If Mousasi shows up with the intent to knock Munoz out he will. Don't really like the O2.5 for that fight.

Alcantara has the tools to finish a fight almost anywhere it goes, but has been flakey recently. Lee's sub defense is gonna be a concern for anyone on the over.
 
iGnP said:
the refs made sure the thunder won the game. dont get me wrong, the spurs werent sharp but the free throw disparity was awful. i played the thunder and im happy i won but that game def influenced by some iffy calls.

i honestly cant get a good read on the miami-indiana series. indiana should have covered last game but they just folded in the fourth quarter. i cant see why they cant keep it close. we cant expect ray allen to go what, 5/5 in threes in a quarter again

good luck with that bet though, i might tail
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I've learned that reads are useless. Shit's rigged and I've had more success betting against public perception. This is even true when betting over and unders. Good luck too, I like your analysis.
 
PuertoRican said:
Gift_-_Top_12_Biggest_MMA_Upsets_medium.jpg



This list is from BloodyElbow. This list is prior to the Dillashaw/Barao fight. Dillashaw is now at #3 on that list of upsets, as they listed Barao as being a -910 favorite.
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Theyre missing plenty I'm sure... like Sokoudjou vs Lil Nog... right?
 
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