Official UFC 173 Betting Thread (Part III)

[efalk1322]

yeah got to admit that could have just changed the entire fight,would have to see r1 again no idea why it kinda reminds me when jds and cain fought a 3rd time round and cain landed that shot that would have sent anyone to an instant death yet jds still carried out somehow on pure grit and heart but it was survival mode from that point.

Will wait for the Brazilian excuses:icon_chee

Yea the Brazilian excuse should be coming within the next couple days. Im gonna go with an uncomfortable mattress in his hotel room.

 

[R3 v3r 3n T]

That fight sounded crazy last night. Did you even lift, baro?

Adding an extra bet to my baseball schedule for tonight: St.L/Cin'Nati FirstFive U4 runs
-163 3.5 units

Was curious to ask arrelione, do you plan to have any football tips for the World Cup upcoming bout over two weeks? I hope the tourney brings out the madness in the sporting world.

JimGunn: are you forgetting that copious amounts of underdogs are hitting more frequently in the MMA world recently; it has to correct at some point, don't you think? Go back further in the past and you'll see far more favorites winning on a card. UFC match-making has definitely improved in the past year, so betting all dogs may work sometimes, but I don't think this could work in the past, or on average.

 

[arrelione]

The night ended well with Krause being my biggest bet, wish I would have gone even bigger on him. I had Iaquinta in a couple of parlays that cost me, Njokuani too.

Up about 200$ on the night.
If Njokuani would have won up another 1300$
If Iaquinta would have won up another 400$
If both would have won up another 900$

Honestly feel like a losing night even though it was a winning event.

Was curious to ask arrelione, do you plan to have any football tips for the World Cup upcoming bout over two weeks? I hope the tourney brings out the madness in the sporting world.

Yeah sure, If there is any interest in my picks I'll be happy share. I'll probably make a complete write up a few days before the world cup starts.

 

[UAK]

That fight sounded crazy last night. Did you even lift, baro?

Adding an extra bet to my baseball schedule for tonight: St.L/Cin'Nati FirstFive U4 runs
-163 3.5 units

Was curious to ask arrelione, do you plan to have any football tips for the World Cup upcoming bout over two weeks? I hope the tourney brings out the madness in the sporting world.

JimGunn: are you forgetting that copious amounts of underdogs are hitting more frequently in the MMA world recently; it has to correct at some point, don't you think? Go back further in the past and you'll see far more favorites winning on a card. UFC match-making has definitely improved in the past year, so betting all dogs may work sometimes, but I don't think this could work in the past, or on average.

I'm not affiliated with fightnomics in any way but I have to recommend those guys yet again; they have already done most of the heavy lifting. Questions that are brought up here have often already been answered.

No, betting on underdogs blindly doesn't work, betting on favorites blindly doesn't work. They backtested the results and the only exception was mega huge underdogs(think it was +500, +600 or something like that can't remember honestly). But backtesting =/= future it could have just been variance since the sample of +500 or bigger underdogs is too small.

Youth matter? Yes, younger fighters have almost 60% winrate according to a study. Don't remember the specific variables.

Octagon size affect finishes? Yes.

Doing your own research is not really necessary if it's already been done by the competent statisticians over at fightnomics. Also a lay man doing statistical analysis can end up in disaster if you not sure how to interpret stats.

 

[judochop87]

Looking back I feel like a dummy for going Cormier by Dec

 

[null]

I'm not affiliated with fightnomics in any way but I have to recommend those guys yet again; they have already done most of the heavy lifting. Questions that are brought up here have often already been answered.

No, betting on underdogs blindly doesn't work, betting on favorites blindly doesn't work. They backtested the results and the only exception was mega huge underdogs(think it was +500, +600 or something like that can't remember honestly). But backtesting =/= future it could have just been variance since the sample of +500 or bigger underdogs is too small.

Youth matter? Yes, younger fighters have almost 60% winrate according to a study. Don't remember the specific variables.

Octagon size affect finishes? Yes.

Doing your own research is not really necessary if it's already been done by the competent statisticians over at fightnomics. Also a lay man doing statistical analysis can end up in disaster if you not sure how to interpret stats.

Their stats are interesting in many ways, but doing your own analysis is always going to be better than relying solely on someone else's even if they are supposedly experts. In any case I was calculating something quite specific about underdog betting that they haven't addressed directly. I've only gone back over the last five UFC events and it was actually profitable. Of course, that's just five events.

 

[EzFlyer]

Can't believe i hit my double, o2.5 hendo-cormier and u4.5 barao-tj both hit with the smallest margin ever. Anyone knows what happens if fight ends at exactly 2:30?
.

i've been wondering that for years, it hasn't happened to me, lol. maybe 2:30 counts as under, though? cause fights can be stopped at 0:00, or maybe it's a push? lol.

 

[EckY]

Not sure what you guys see in Ogle, he wont sniff a takedown against Blanco, cant see him winning outside of a DQ to be honest.

 

[EzFlyer]

prleminary plays for saturday's double-header:

2.475u barnatt -165
1u mousasi-niinimaki parlay -115ish

1u miocic-maldonado O2.5 -125

 

[Ukram]

Not sure what you guys see in Ogle, he wont sniff a takedown against Blanco, cant see him winning outside of a DQ to be honest.

One should always fear the ogle

 

[Goreds1994]

anyone know anything about bakstrom? (the guy niinimaki is fighting)

From what I've seen, Backstrom is a legit prospect with pretty damn good striking. KO'd Max Coga who is a decent prospect in his own right in 15 seconds in his last fight with a front kick.
He's going to have the edge on the feet, but this is his UFC debut and Niinimaki is going to have a big edge on the ground. I think he wins by sub/decision but if the Backstrom by KO prop is high enough I would play it as well.

 

[EckY]

One should always fear the ogle

His only real route to victory agaisnt UFC level guys is to try and grind out a decision with clinch and takedowns, he managed to make it a fight against Cole and Oliveira as they have shit TDD and like to fight off their back, Blanco on the other hand is a really solid wrestler, Ogle should lose that one, hoping Blanco opens as a dog.

 

[EzFlyer]

From what I've seen, Backstrom is a legit prospect with pretty damn good striking. KO'd Max Coga who is a decent prospect in his own right in 15 seconds in his last fight with a front kick.
He's going to have the edge on the feet, but this is his UFC debut and Niinimaki is going to have a big edge on the ground. I think he wins by sub/decision but if the Backstrom by KO prop is high enough I would play it as well.

yea i watched backstrom's last 3 fights. he never got put into any bad positions. he's a legit prospect, i had same reaction.. but i definitely think niinimaki will be able to get his takedowns

 

[Goreds1994]

yea i watched backstrom's last 3 fights. he never got put into any bad positions. he's a legit prospect, i had same reaction.. but i definitely think niinimaki will be able to get his takedowns

Are odds not out for that fight yet? Just checked on BFO and didn't see any. It's a tough fight for a debut and short notice for Backstrom. If he wins this fight though his stock will rise a ton.

I'm assuming he will be a +200 or so dog.

 

[betterthanjones]

Or Ogle wins via a Blanco fuck up. Can't touch that ML with a 10 feet pole, dude is a flake. I might parlay him with someone else because Ogle just isn't UFC level and his line isn't high enough for me to wanna take a stab at him.

Thinking of taking a stab on Vaughan Lee, he was beast mode K1 striking in his last fight, but stylistically I think this is a very bad match up for him. Alcantara will have the BJJ chops, size advantage, superior take down game and Lee can't tell an underhook from an over. Will be eyeing that sub prop very closely.

Damn the Dolloway/Carmont line, pretty accurate there. Was hoping Dolloway might open even bigger lol but I'm gonna go ahead and drop a unit on him at current odds anyway because I'm a Carmont hater.

 

[EzFlyer]

yea they went up last night during ufc 173. they have been doing that a LOT recently... releasing lines DURING events.

i'm guessing bestfightodds doesn't show it because of the funny letters (swedish alphabet or whatever)

niinimaki -260 & hasn't budged in the first 14 hours

 

[Dirtey]

Are odds not out for that fight yet? Just checked on BFO and didn't see any. It's a tough fight for a debut and short notice for Backstrom. If he wins this fight though his stock will rise a ton.

I'm assuming he will be a +200 or so dog.

I will probably be on B

 

[Goreds1994]

I will probably be on B

 

[Dirtey]

Uhh what? I was very complimentary of his skills and said he has an edge on the feet. Just because I said Niinimaki has an edge on the ground (which is true) doesn't mean he sucks lol.

Ah, sorry I read it as you considered B

 

[Goreds1994]

yea they went up last night during ufc 173. they have been doing that a LOT recently... releasing lines DURING events.

i'm guessing bestfightodds doesn't show it because of the funny letters (swedish alphabet or whatever)

niinimaki -260 & hasn't budged in the first 14 hours

Hmm Backstrom +180. I think that is right around where I thought. I'll wait for props I guess. Don't really know about the O/U line either for it.

Quite frankly no line is standing out for me right now. Maybe CB at +130.