Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

iGnP said:
@mkess101 im debating live betting the dbacks. any thoughts on brewers?
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I live bet the Brewers LOL. Just half a unit. Arizona lost their best player last night (with Goldy sucking so bad this year, Pollack was easily their best player). Brewers might have (I cannot believe I'm saying this) the best bullpen in the NL or close to it. I wouldn't bet against them in games where it's tied past the 6th inning unless you're getting nice odds. I took Brewers +106. No way I'd pay juice for Arizona in this spot.
 
mkess101 said:
I live bet the Brewers LOL. Just half a unit. Arizona lost their best player last night (with Goldy sucking so bad this year, Pollack was easily their best player). Brewers might have (I cannot believe I'm saying this) the best bullpen in the NL or close to it. I wouldn't bet against them in games where it's tied past the 6th inning unless you're getting nice odds. I took Brewers +106. No way I'd pay juice for Arizona in this spot.
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fuck it riding w you then. ill lb if score is tied after this
 
Added .75u on Brewers now that it's for sure a bullpen game.

1.25u total now, so I guess even though I'm tired it's worth staying up a bit to watch...
 
And of course Logan hangs a slider down the middle first pitch to a lefty and he gets an RBI single.

So glad I stayed up to watch some of my Celtics profits fly out the window. F'ing Brewers.
 
mkess101 said:
And of course Logan hangs a slider down the middle first pitch to a lefty and he gets an RBI single.

So glad I stayed up to watch some of my Celtics profits fly out the window. F'ing Brewers.
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why did they walk owings to get to descalso? he's been so hot recently
 
iGnP said:
why did they walk owings to get to descalso? he's been so hot recently
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Logan has been brutal on lefties the last couple years. Council has been pretty amazing with bullpen matchups this year. This time it didn't work, of course when I have a bet on them LOL.
 
And...the ump has someplace to be after the game LOL. He was calling that a ball all night and now it's a strike. Terrible.
 
Small bet on the Rockets 1H -1.5 line

Taking GS ML. Might throw a bit more on them live as this week has been pretty good so far

I like what the Warriors' players and coaches are saying in the lead up to this game after their game 1 victory. Conversely, I see a lot of frustration out of the Rockets players, both in comments they're making and in body language

They were so high coming into this game. All year, people were speculating that it would be the "perfect team" to beat the current Warriors roster. All year they work for the #1 seed to put themselves in the perfect spot to knock off the Warriors, and the Warriors spank them and take the home court back in essentially 24 minutes. It has to be deflating
 
iGnP said:
Small bet on the Rockets 1H -1.5 line

Taking GS ML. Might throw a bit more on them live as this week has been pretty good so far

I like what the Warriors' players and coaches are saying in the lead up to this game after their game 1 victory. Conversely, I see a lot of frustration out of the Rockets players, both in comments they're making and in body language

They were so high coming into this game. All year, people were speculating that it would be the "perfect team" to beat the current Warriors roster. All year they work for the #1 seed to put themselves in the perfect spot to knock off the Warriors, and the Warriors spank them and take the home court back in essentially 24 minutes. It has to be deflating
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And Harden most likely won't have as great of a shooting game tonight imo, I agree with Charles Barkley's prediction, Warriors in 3.

2u Warriors ml @ 1.952
 
After seeing game 1, I'm on the Warriors too tonight +110.

For Houston to be successful, they HAVE to make open 3's when Harden and Paul run their iso's and force switches and get into the paint. The problem is that arguably the guy they need most to do it (Eric Gordon) has been ice cold throughout the playoffs and tossing up brick after brick. Their offense just doesn't work if Gordon, Ariza, etc. aren't making open 3's. Add to it that Golden State rotates defensively better than anyone in the league (maybe alongside Boston) and it means you REALLY have to take advantage when you do get the open looks. I just don't trust those secondary guys to consistently make those shots since they've been missing too many for a couple weeks straight now. Yeah you can still beat Minnesota or Utah that way, but Golden State. No chance. Maybe they get hot tonight, but I'd rather play the W's at + money for sure than bank on tonight being the night that it happens.

Oh, and Houston (like most teams) has zero answer for Durant. The Warriors have the luxury of alternating between their normal motion, ball movement offense where everyone tends to touch the ball and then just posting Durant. Which means Houston either doubles him (bad idea against the shooters Golden State has) or he just turns and shoots over the top of whatever helpless guy happens to be trying to check him one on one.

1.5u Golden St. +110
 
I think this might be a forced bet, but im taking o215.5 in the bball game tonight. there was a statistic that the Rockets shot the ball w/ less than 5 seconds left on the shot clock in 21% of their shots in game 1. The total went "over" in game 1 (thanks to some fuckery towards the end with unnecessarily fouling) but i'd imagine the Rockets want a better pace to the game, even though they are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. more urgency = more possessions = more points. half a unit for me
 
So far this year Justin Verlander has started 4 road games. In those games, he's totaled 25 IP. 27 K's, 9 BB's. And he's given up one, ONE, earned run TOTAL in those four road starts.

This might be a mega trap. Angels are 11-13 at home, so I really don't understand the Astros being so cheap in this spot. -125 just seems way off, I was expecting -160 at the absolute best. Richards has been...okay for the Angels. Kind of hot and cold, but his 4.08 ERA and high walk rate (20 BB's in 40 IP) show he certainly hasn't been dominant at all.

I'm playing the Astros in a variety of ways. ML, -1.5, first 5 innings, and the unders on Angels team totals for first five innings and full game.

Like I said, might be a trap. But backing Verlander at this price is just a no-brainer right now.
 
Rockets secondary players making shots tonight. Gordon, Ariza, Tucker all doing what they have to do to make this a series. Let's see if they can keep it up.
 
1H bet hit. over looks to be in good shape too

i hit the +225 GS ML for about 0.3u. want to have another 1u total on them in live betting. i may be the only person who thinks so but they can correct a lot in the second half and make this a competitive game. i kinda expected everything so far and am not surprised at the score one bit
 
@mkess101

give me your list of tier 1, 2, and 3 NBA players. Let's just talk all star level players
 
iGnP said:
@mkess101

give me your list of tier 1, 2, and 3 NBA players. Let's just talk all star level players
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A certain # of guys in each tier? Or just sort of however they break down?

Tier 1:
Durant, Lebron, AD, Steph, Harden, Kawaii and (I guess) Westbrook has to be in it. Although I can see the rationale of not including him.

Tier 2:
Giannis, CP3, KAT, Butler, Embiid, Kyrie, Lillard, George, Aldrich, and maybe (borderline tier 2/3) now Mitchell and maybe Jokic?

Tier 3:
Pretty much any other all star not mentioned? Guys like Griffin, Hayward, Dipo, Kristops, etc.
 
mkess101 said:
A certain # of guys in each tier? Or just sort of however they break down?

Tier 1:
Durant, Lebron, AD, Steph, Harden, Kawaii and (I guess) Westbrook has to be in it. Although I can see the rationale of not including him.

Tier 2:
Giannis, CP3, KAT, Butler, Embiid, Kyrie, Lillard, George, Aldrich, and maybe (borderline tier 2/3) now Mitchell and maybe Jokic?

Tier 3:
Pretty much any other all star not mentioned? Guys like Griffin, Hayward, Dipo, Kristops, etc.
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id put Westbrook in 2. Mitchell def in 3. Porz in 2. But yeah, basically evything else i agree w
 
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