Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

[mkess101]

GS in 6; Houston has a 20% chance to win the series imo.

I prob give them maybe a 30% chance, which is far better than I thought I'd be giving any team to beat them 4 out of 7.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Thoughts on Trail blazers v Twolves tonight? I always like Portland at home and the same kind of the same circumstances lead to this game as their last outing. 1 day rest for each team. No sig injuries from players. -5 doesn't seem too steep. Would love your input though.

 

[iGnP]

Trailblazers -5 for 1u

 

[mkess101]

Tailed @iGnP Kings/Nets over (got It at 213) and Blazers -5. Don't have time to look at stuff today and I play my last rec league game tonight. Let's get it.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Tailed @iGnP Kings/Nets over (got It at 213) and Blazers -5. Don't have time to look at stuff today and I play my last rec league game tonight. Let's get it.

Good luck in your game bro.

 

[mkess101]

Good luck in your game bro.

Thanks man. Gotta love a rec league with a bunch of guys that used to be really good but are now all 35+ (over 40 in my case) and then you have the one team that's all recently graduated guys that played college ball that beats everyone by 25. Luckily we don't play them (already took our whoopin' earlier this year from them) tonight.

Last week I put up probably 15 three pointers (hit 8 of them). Tonight my goal is to see if I can get 20 of them up there without my teammates losing their minds LOL. But honestly, at this point if I make it through the season without any injuries I consider that a victory.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Thanks man. Gotta love a rec league with a bunch of guys that used to be really good but are now all 35+ (over 40 in my case) and then you have the one team that's all recently graduated guys that played college ball that beats everyone by 25. Luckily we don't play them (already took our whoopin' earlier this year from them) tonight.

Last week I put up probably 15 three pointers (hit 8 of them). Tonight my goal is to see if I can get 20 of them up there without my teammates losing their minds LOL. But honestly, at this point if I make it through the season without any injuries I consider that a victory.

Eh it's all in good fun though right? At least you're staying active. That's super important. Careful with that knee though my man. I've broken a few bones in my time but I think I'd rather that then a torn ligament.

 

[mkess101]

Eh it's all in good fun though right? At least you're staying active. That's super important. Careful with that knee though my man. I've broken a few bones in my time but I think I'd rather that then a torn ligament.

Yeah that's why I stay outside and just launch 3's now and don't drive to the hoop as much ha ha.

I did tell my wife that if I tear up my knee again I'll pass on surgery and find low impact stuff to do. That's our deal for her letting me keep doing all this young man's crap!

 

[iGnP]

2-0 night but both games were a sweat that required some luck. Ill take it after the shitty luck I’ve had at times this season

 

[mkess101]

2-0 night but both games were a sweat that required some luck. Ill take it after the shitty luck I’ve had at times this season

Yep tailed both plus added 2u to Portland -2.5 when they were down 3 in the first half. Big night for me thanks to tailing you. Super lucky with Nets/Kings going to OT, I thought that one was dead in the water. But IDK about luck with the Blazers. They stayed within striking distance the whole time, and I always figured they'd make a run at some point and win the game outright at least. Wasn't super sure about covering 5 when they were down 10 in the 3rd quarter or whatever, but I did still think they'd win.

 

[iGnP]

Yep tailed both plus added 2u to Portland -2.5 when they were down 3 in the first half. Big night for me thanks to tailing you. Super lucky with Nets/Kings going to OT, I thought that one was dead in the water. But IDK about luck with the Blazers. They stayed within striking distance the whole time, and I always figured they'd make a run at some point and win the game outright at least. Wasn't super sure about covering 5 when they were down 10 in the 3rd quarter or whatever, but I did still think they'd win.

IDK the % of 5 point favorites that have covered while being down by 10 at one point in the 3rd quarter, but im gonna go out on a limb and say its pretty low. They were pretty lucky to cover that game, a lot went their way

 

[iGnP]

NBA Friday

Charlotte Hornets +4 for 2.5u

I may have another play later

 

[mkess101]

IDK the % of 5 point favorites that have covered while being down by 10 at one point in the 3rd quarter, but im gonna go out on a limb and say its pretty low. They were pretty lucky to cover that game, a lot went their way

Yeah it's probably pretty low, I'd agree. But maybe not as low as we think. Esp at home. They were favored by 5 for a reason. And there are so many freaking possessions in NBA games that 10 point leads are shrunk to 2 points in the span of like 2 minutes of clock time.

I think live betting moderate home favorites that play a bad first half is probably a very profitable strategy long term if you even remotely pick your spots correctly.

 

[iGnP]

Yeah it's probably pretty low, I'd agree. But maybe not as low as we think. Esp at home. They were favored by 5 for a reason. And there are so many freaking possessions in NBA games that 10 point leads are shrunk to 2 points in the span of like 2 minutes of clock time.

I think live betting moderate home favorites that play a bad first half is probably a very profitable strategy long term if you even remotely pick your spots correctly.

Meh, that's a slippery slope. I'm all for getting value through live betting (getting a better line compared to the what the line closed at) but I wouldn't pursue it blindly. Ill LB a team heavily if theyre playing a team on the second game of a back to back but there's a reason behind it (Utah + Charlotte tonight ).

 

[mkess101]

Meh, that's a slippery slope. I'm all for getting value through live betting (getting a better line compared to the what the line closed at) but I wouldn't pursue it blindly. Ill LB a team heavily if theyre playing a team on the second game of a back to back but there's a reason behind it (Utah + Charlotte tonight ).

Oh yeah you have to choose your spots, but I think (esp in nationally televised games where the public are live betting more and have forgotten the opening line and are betting based on what they've seen in the game thus far) you can find a lot of value if you are paying attention.

 

[blokeybloke]

Yeah it's probably pretty low, I'd agree. But maybe not as low as we think. Esp at home. They were favored by 5 for a reason. And there are so many freaking possessions in NBA games that 10 point leads are shrunk to 2 points in the span of like 2 minutes of clock time.

I think live betting moderate home favorites that play a bad first half is probably a very profitable strategy long term if you even remotely pick your spots correctly.

Meh, that's a slippery slope. I'm all for getting value through live betting (getting a better line compared to the what the line closed at) but I wouldn't pursue it blindly. Ill LB a team heavily if theyre playing a team on the second game of a back to back but there's a reason behind it (Utah + Charlotte tonight ).

Do you guys ever livebet the unders ?

I've tailed your good runs of late & also struck lucky livebetting unders of slow starting games mid 1st quarter. Lines seem generous & slow to change.

 

[mkess101]

Do you guys ever live betting the unders ?

I've tailed your good runs of late & also struck lucky livebetting unders of slow starting games mid 1st quarter. Lines seem generous & slow to change.

I have not played o/u well live in the past, so I generally pass unless something really jumps out at me. But that's really more about me not being comfortable with it based on my own experience. Doesn't mean you can't find value. If you're doing well with it, keep going man.

 

[iGnP]

Do you guys ever livebet the unders ?

I've tailed your good runs of late & also struck lucky livebetting unders of slow starting games mid 1st quarter. Lines seem generous & slow to change.

I think betting unders in general is a bad idea in the NBA but I can't definitively speak on it. The league is so inherently statistics driven that its not unlikely to see both teams refuse to play defense for long stretches of times in order to move the pace of the game and fluff everyone's stats. After all, that's how these guys are evaluated when it comes to contract negotiations. Have you ever seen how a game moves when one team is blowing the other team out? It looks like the all star game. More so, the evolution of the game which has led to so many damn three pointers are gonna drive scores up by a lot. This season, the league is shooting 3s at a 36% rate last time i checked, which is the highest in history. Thirdly, there's always overtime. We deserved to lose the Nets/Kings over last night but they made it into OT and gifted us the hit.

With all that being said, those are MY reasons for not playing unders. I'm sure there is inherently value in unders but I dont feel comfortable playing them. If you can find an edge, go for it.

 

[iGnP]

NBA Friday

Charlotte Hornets +4 for 2.5u

I may have another play later

Planning on adding another 1-1.5u live if I can get their ML over +220 or a spread of +10 at any point

 

[iGnP]

Dallas Mavericks -2.5 for 1u