Lost a ton first few days then won most of it back.
My bets on Wings to pick most heroes seems really solid (2nd behind Escape but just two heroes behind and Escape will probably only play 1-4 more games while Wings could do a fair few more).
I think OG looks very good when they pick non-retarded stuff and Ehome looks really good too.
Added a unit on Secret to win at +10k or something (down to +5000 now), one unit on LGD +15k and 4u on OG @2.9 or something like that.
I agree on Wings being very hit or miss, I'm close-ish to bet DC against them at small + money. My old computer with all my notes crashed thought, so need to do some research all over again.
Winner's bracket
Ehome vs A - Will probably watch as a fan and livebet. Alliance needs outdrafts or some kind of way to manipulate the game into a late game strategy-heavy situation. I think I might livebet if A goes for some full on push draft with chen and strong lanes or if it goes past 40 and they have a mobility advantage (most likely furion and/or IO). Think odds might be right other then that, Ehome just looks really solid and they have some really good talented players. Also want to note that A drafted LD for Loda in their last game vs EG for probably the first time ever, which really messes up the banning phase for the other team since the traditional way to deal with A is to ban Bulldog heroes, but you can't really ban him out if A already picked his signature hero and also the hero with the highest winrate in the tournament first phase with an option to play that hero on someone else. That might force Ehome to blockpick either LD or IO first phase or let drow through a lot. Might turn out weird.
DC vs Wings - Flip a coin I guess, both teams has some really weird drafts up their respective sleeves. Gonna watch out for the way they match up late game since both teams are quite solid early and individually. Unless some really strange outdraft happens I think they will have long games. Tempted to bet DC since they look like they've put their game together really well but Wings are just scary. That said I feel that whoever loses will have a fairly scary match up in the lower bracket (Secret/LGD winner I think) so we might see some really out there pocket strats if one team feels desperate after the first game. That's kind of my only prediction, some really weird drafts in game 2.
OG vs MVP - MVP might take a game if OG fucks around with their drafts, which they probably will to keep people on their toes for later rounds. Would be hugely surprised if MVP gets close to winning the series thought.
EG vs Newbee - I honestly don't feel that either team looks great. Both are quite solid in general thought and I feel Newbee mostly gets beat by either really good teams (ehome) or really weird teams (DC) and EG isn't either of those. There are some really obvious keys to victory here for newbee such as get a good match up mid to make sure Sumail doesn't snowball, don't get cheesed and just play solid so I might take them 2-0 @+190 or whatever. It's just hard to imagine that a EG with a carry with health issues (tennis elbow, can't play that much), a guy who skipped out on pro gaming for almost a year and a bunch of people who hasn't looked in form for a long time could take out arguably the 2nd or 3rd best team so far this year. Not a solid lean thought, no bet so far for me.
L
oser's bracket:
TNC vs VG.R - Looking to bet VG.R as small dogs, but I'll wait and see what they draft. Will pass if they draft anything hard to execute.
Secret vs LGD - Two supertalanted teams who has been really hit or miss. Whoever wins this will be my dark horse for the loser's bracket. In general I think LGD might be the better team right now, but Secret has higher potential and they probably feel really good after ending the group stage 2-0'ing Liquid. I think Secret might go for stronger lanes and LGD for better high ground defense and team fight. If Secret gets a coherent draft with one or two solid defensive heroes that enables RTZ or EE to go crazy it might be Secret or pass but if they keep getting weird stuff that doesn't fit together and have no plan B if straight up outplaying people fails I think it's LGD or pass. Overall I think Secret has more issues to deal with but they're also easier to deal with for the most part, which is why I think I might end up picking them.
Fnatic vs Escape - Betting Escape as dogs if they get Lone druid, Invoker or Tinker. Betting Escape if Fnatic picks Invoker for Mushi. Other then that I'll probably pass unless it's pure outdrafts. Can't imagine either team going far unless Fnatic suddenly remembers not to suck.
Liquid vs Navi - On paper Liquid should stomp, but it's a best of one against a super aggressive team. Horrible spot to be in for one of the pre tournament favorites. Both teams love aggression so if either team gets a clearly better pushing line up (Lycan seems like a key pick) I'll bet that I think and if that doesn't happen I'll go for whoever has better team fight. Might actually be dog or pass give the high variance of Navi and the best of 1 format for the first round of the loser's bracket.
Bets/futures
I like a European team to win at +120 or better , OG to win at 2.9 or whatever I found it at and LGD/Secret winner at a combined odds of +4k or better (so you gotta find them at and average odds of +8000 or something I guess before it's worth it). With current odds I'd take LGD straight at +10k or better, say what you want about how they've played, and let's be honest, it hasn't been terrible, but they're still a bunch of really high level cores, two proven support players and probably the most decorated and talented captain in Chinese dota 2 history. I'll happily throw away a unit on them to win 100+ units if it hits.
Let me just quote joindota on Newbee's 2014 TI-winning run captained by current LGD captain Xiao8:
"Newbee earned a direct invite to TI4 but struggled initially, finishing 7-8 in the second playoff phase before defeating
LGD Gaming and
Mousesports in tiebreakers for 9th place. However, they did not lose another series the rest of the way, first defeating
Titan,
Natus Vincere and
Invictus Gaming to progress to the top 8 main event in the winners' side. At the main event, they defeated
Vici Gaming and then
Evil Geniuses to set up an all-Chinese grand final against Vici Gaming - which was also a matchup of two teams who enjoy forming deathballs. VG took the first game, but Newbee came back to take the next three and the $5 million first prize, including a 19-3 blitzing in the decisive Game 4 in just over 15 minutes."
I'll be fucked if Ehome or another non-euro, non-LGD team wins lol.
