Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - April 2016

[Soccer Steve]

Riding a dopamine high after picking a 5:1 Bologna-Roma draw (sorry for no tip on here). On Twolves too.

 

[EzFlyer]

1.5u gasquet -3.5 -120

let's start off the clay season with a win, plz, frenchie!

A win to start?! Then let's go for 4 more Tuesday!

2.36u lopez +4 -118
0.5u lopez ml +285

0.525u verdasco-delbonis o22.5 -105
0.5u Verdasco ml +120

1.16u coric-kohl o21.5 -16

1.1u murray-herbert o19.5

I'm being ballsy at start of clay season.

Goffin's form has been great but surface transition (think he moves better on hardcourts) and having never seen lopez before with his big lefty serve and his net play... Love this play. Hope it hits. =P

 

[Sham5916910]

365 free £50 inplay bet for City PSG tomo.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Kind of liking Atletico on Wednesday. Atletico is at home and Barca is on a terrible streak right now for their standards (LWLD over last 4). Of course, their W there is against Atletico. It should be tight though, these teams play each other so often.
Atletico to win: 3.40
Atletico to advance: 4.00

But the wuss in me wants to wager this:
Draw: 3.35
And something with Messi scoring. He's due.

 

[iGnP]

For what it's worth, I believe the Sac Kings are in full tank mode to protect their first round pick. Every game they win decreases their chances of retaining the pick. The Suns are pretty big favorites but I think it's worth putting their ML in a two team parlay

I decided to only wager 2u on the T-Wolves w a little bit on their ML. I didn't realize they are coming off of a long road trip which sometime results in lackluster results. Hopefully it won't be the case today

 

[cs02132]

Bournemouth won easily(ish).
The problem now I guess will be getting good odds against Villa from now on. Averaging 1.5 per game will easily hit £1k. However on Saturday they are away at Manchester United... bookies opened the odds around the 1.25 mark, eek.
That means stupid parlay time to make the target (hey, I'm stupid). I wonder which one will down me...

Doing half today with two of today's football games (picked via goalscoring form - most likely teams to win & score lots) and the other half with MMA at the weekend (probably with: Torres/Namajunas NOT (T)KO and Not Betch by KO to give about 1.5ish. If Unibet limits let me put £110 on it that is )

Week 3 of 'Shit on the Villa', part 1:
£110 on Man Utd to beat Aston Villa + Roma to score (vs Bologna) + Estudiantes to score (vs Atletico Tucuman) @ 1.60

for some reasons Estudiantes to score was the same as Man U to win. Suspicious...

You know we are in crazy times when I wouldn't trust United to beat Aston villa

 

[SamHale]

You know we are in crazy times when I wouldn't trust United to beat Aston villa

Was thinking the same thing. One of the worst teams in BPL history in Villa...and I still think they could get a draw out of Man United.

The odds probably aren't far off, but there's too many parameters that would make me uncomfortable betting it. Namely that Van Gaal has reportedly just had a bust-up with two of the players, which in turn could lose him the backing of the rest of the squad too, which would show in their performance.

That, plus the fact United are playing like complete dogshit anyway.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Ugh t wolves getting spanked

 

[piglord]

365 free £50 inplay bet for City PSG tomo.

what are you thinking of putting your free 50 on?

i think perhaps zlatan first scorer at around 4/1 for me.

 

[piglord]

magic rockets double looking good tonight.

 

[iGnP]

Fucking t wolves.........

 

[mkess101]

Haven't been able to post any MLB plays lately. Honestly, nobody has missed much as I'm basically dead break even ytd (up a whopping .8u, yippee). That said, I think MLB is tougher to cap early in the season where you don't have as many trends (esp with starting pitchers) to track. Tonight I am gonna go bigger than normal early in the season in fading Rangers starter Colby Lewis. He was lucky to give up only 3 runs in 6 innings just 5 days ago against this same SEA team. He gave up 6 hits and 3 walks and got a couple gift called strikes and a couple very hard hit balls right at guys with men on base. He so easily could have been chased in that one giving up a bunch of runs. The M's still broke it open late against the Rangers bullpen, but imo Lewis is bona fide fade material. He doesn't throw hard, and doesn't have great movement. He's a control pitcher but walks too many guys and gives up too many HR's. I'm playing the Mariners in all sorts of ways tonight. (I do like M's starter Iwakuma but this really is more about fading Lewis. Other than wins, his #'s last season were not good and he was brutal this spring. I won plenty fading him 5 days ago against the same lineup so going to the well again...)

M's first 5 innings -180
M's first 5 innings -.5 at -125
M's ML -175
M's team total over 4
M's -1.5 at +130
Robinson Cano hits+runs+rbi over 2.5 at +110

All told have 6u on this game. That's a ton for me on a baseball game, let alone early in the season. But I really feel this warrants it.

 

[mkess101]

^^And...the Mariners are managing to make Colby Lewis look like a top tier major league starter tonight somehow. 1 run through 5 innings, ugh.

This is exactly why I should limit my early season bets for baseball. 4-0 in my other non posted bets but so heavy on SEA that I'll end up with a losing day if they don't rally. I'm going to bed. Watching the Mariners flail against a guy with back of the rotation stuff at best is too depressing.

 

[Soccer Steve]

On PSG to qualify at 2.1

 

[gcoogan1]

on PSG and Real Madrid to qualify at 10/3 on betfair
also on over 60 card points in man city v psg - this ref has crazy booking/red card stats
and Fernandinho, Aurier, Rabiot, Otamendi to get booked as singles

 

[Soccer Steve]

Added Zlatan to score anytime, small.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Man, Cristiano showed up today.

 

[EzFlyer]

first playoff bets on the books for me:

series bets:
5u chi +103
3.625u lak -145
2.5u phi +255 (yea, bias, but still like it)

 

[EzFlyer]

f you, lopez. f you.

wednesday:

big on verdasco +4 and +1.5 sets. (and very small on +248 ML)
medium on granollers +4 and +1.5 sets. (and very small on +220 ML)
small on kohl-wawr O22.0.

 

[piglord]

on miami heat tonight, even though they've fucked me the last 2 times i've backed them. small, not confident.