Nate Diaz has a significant chance to win

[Adamant]

It seems everyone is forgetting that Khamzat was taking part in a Ramadan during his Burns fight, fasting is going to mess up your cardio

Bingo. Not only that, but Burns was huffing and puffing too. It's not like he was fresh and Khamzat was dead tired.

 

[ryun253]

Diaz stock will rise if he survives 5 rounds against Khamzat.

 

[Sgt Smith]

Khamzat looked mentally broken despite winning a close decision over Burns

No, he didn't look as invincible as some of his fans predicted he would. He looked fine throughout the fight other than losing steam as the fight progressed. Projecting the fan's claims on the fighter's performance is disingenuous.

 

[SharpasaRazor]

I wouldn’t say he has a significant chance to win however he does have reasonable chance to walk away with higher stock.

If you look at how Nate could actually win the fight -

1. KO/TKO: Doesent have many on bud record and simply doesn’t have the power to KO a guy as big as Khazmat.

2. Decision: Smallest chance, any which way he just gives up too many points getting tagged and taken down.

3. Sub: His likely only real chance to genuinely win the fight, but his last sub victory is 2016 when exhausted Conor gives his back - before that we are talking 2013. It’s possible this happens but given Khazmats wrestling, grappling and size it’s a long shot.

What Nate can eminently do is potentially take a lot of what Chimaev has to give on the feet, drop to his back and then last into the later rounds when his cardio potentially starts to fail him.

All it takes then is a few slaps, a punch that rocks Khazmat or a near submission or few good moments on the ground. Then it goes to a lopsided with a whole arena cheering a bloodied Nate while the narrative for Chimaev is that he couldn’t put away a guy who he’s got about 30 pounds and 10 years of youth on.

 

[Quietus]

I would normally agree but he's so outmatched here in terms of size (DIaz was 155 most of his career, Khamzat could bulk and be a contender at 205), and Khamzat has the style that could hold DIaz down and beat him up, or just hit harder than him on the feet when they trade. Just bigger and stronger overall and Nate does not have many viable paths to victory here.

His only real chance is just toughing it out and hoping Khamzat buys into the hype of finishing him early, and blows his wad and gasses like Conor did in their first fight, then Nate could take advantage and mount a comeback. That could happen, seeing as Khamzat is totally unproven as a 5 round fighter, he might look like an absolute bum and get TKOed if he had to keep fighting Gilbert a 4th and 5th round in his last fight. Id give Diaz about a 15% chance to win overall, as in if they fought 10 times he wins once or twice.

 

[ong bak]

The odds are obviously in favour of Khamzat however i think Diaz has a better chance of pulling something off than people are giving him credit for.

 

[I_IZ_BACK]

Nate Diaz always has a chance to win

 

[suffersystem]

Of the three times times Nate has gone a full five rounds, he has lost every single time. Not sure if trying to go the distance is his best bet

 

[JustBleed69]

Khamzat looked mentally broken despite winning a close decision over Burns, he realized that he's not an invincible Khabib 2.0 as many saw him before. He couldn't run through Burns despite making fun of his size and ability before the fight.

Nate Diaz is extremely hard to finish, cardio for days (Chimmy was huffing and Puffing by round 2), and good BJJ (Khamzat wasn't confident enough to entertain grappling with Burns, so we know it's a weakness)

Nate Diaz by Double Finger Triangle

Go watch Nate Diaz vs Rory Macdonald and get back with me