Depends on how long Jake is secretly training mma(at least 2022 internet says). He will train till he feels he has a 90% chance.
He had some mma experience many years ago though.
Diaz will get older, smoke, party and get even more skinnyfat.
Hands: Jake knocks him out with mma gloves.
Nate's bjj could save him after a knockdown though.
Diaz has shitty kicks, but a few calf kicks could change the fight
Wrestling: Jake has highschool wrestling, but looked bad on the map many years ago. This could've changed.
Weight favors Jake there