My UFN 30 Bets - Post Yours! (Part II)

[behemoth00]

ufc 167....

Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Johny Hendricks . GSP via decision

Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen ,, RASHAD VIA DECISION or 15% submission,

Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler , RORY MACDOANL by TKO or decision\

Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley .. TYRON WOODLEY by DECISION or SUBMISSION

Tim Elliott vs. Ali Bagautinov ... Ali by strikes or submission in round 2 or 3...

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

These insane well put together parlays make me jealous.

Arreilone inspired me...


he showed me one of his 10 dollars to win 3500 parlays and I thought to myself, "I have to do it."


But I have to warn you...the stress is incredible.

Patriots were down 14 at the half..

last night, Fresno ST had to BLOCK a field goal to force over time.

and tonight, Vikings opened with a Kick off return touch down.

 

[behemoth00]

football puts me on tilt...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WBmrrRKg-c

 

[SenseiSeagalMMA]

Cashed two plays on GB -7.5, two plays on GB -3 at half, Rodgers TD prop. Only loss was the fluke kickoff return by the Vikings. Hope everyone made some money today.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

NFL

Spoiler

First, let's get back to using spoilers. Or as the inimitable Jesse Pinkman would say, "Spoilers bitches!!" Myself included. Second, big props to LI for his mega parlay win and I think Kdog might've cashed too. Sensei, nice job today. For me? I got LUCKY as fuck! I bet the Lions @ the 2 min. warning down 3 and @ +300. I had $200 on it already at like +160 & +180 & thought "fuck it", why not try another $100. Well obviously it didn't go my way after the 2 minute warning and I thought I had lost 100%. For anybody who did not see this game or the highlights, please watch SportsCenter or if you live outside the states and don't watch American football, please go and find it online to see how I won. It was the NFL equivalent of a Mike Russow vs Tom Duffee comeback.

Here's a brief clip that doesn't quite do it justice http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=331027008

 

[Rebel_LioN]

curran -300 at best, probably

i think curran is 2nd best 145'er after aldo (maybe tied with mendes). but at some point, straus has to have value. idk when. maybe at +500..

i like the over potentially in that one, depending on if it's 2.5, or 3.5, or 4.5, etc... and price, obv.

as for larken, yea, i think he has a very favorable matchup against camozzi and might be close to even $. and yea, camozzi has never been ko'd. i like larken & decision there

You're crazy if you think Larken (undefeated record*) is going to be anything close to even lol. I'm expecting the -200s.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

NFL

Spoiler

First, let's get back to using spoilers. Or as the inimitable Jesse Pinkman would say, "Spoilers bitches!!" Myself included. Second, big props to LI for his mega parlay win and I think Kdog might've cashed too. Sensei, nice job today. For me? I got LUCKY as fuck! I bet the Lions @ the 2 min. warning down 3 and @ +300. I had $200 on it already at like +160 & +180 & thought "fuck it", why not try another $100. Well obviously it didn't go my way after the 2 minute warning and I thought I had lost 100%. For anybody who did not see this game or the highlights, please watch SportsCenter or if you live outside the states and don't watch American football, please go and find it online to see how I won. It was the NFL equivalent of a Mike Russow vs Tom Duffee comeback.

Here's a brief clip that doesn't quite do it justice http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=331027008

Crazy fucking game...I bet Dallas +.5 second half...I thought i was good with a minute left...lmao

 

[hazak]

Right now thinking about playing on Khabilov.

Khabilov could and probably will outgrapple Masvidal. Just can't go against those Russian monsters in UFC (looking at you Amagov and Khabib)

Maybe I'm too hard on Alex Davis but she is fading material for me. She looked awful in that fight with Sexton and gassed badly. Sexton even took over in that last round. Yes Sexton is durable but we saw how bad she was this weekend (and I even put a lot of money on her). I think Liz will have a great chance to finish Alex when she starts gassing. But after losing a lot of (potential) money on WMMA I will avoid this and any WMMA in UFC in the future (Oblivion don't follow this time, still feeling bad for putting you on Sexton :redface: )

I also like Bermudez, think he is strong and durable enough to win over Siler, I'm still not sold on Siler. Gonna be close and this is maybe just a fan boy talk because I love Bermudez a lot.

Chiesa should be able to defend TDs from Colton and pick him apart in stand up. Chiesa was actually landing nice on Masvidal in opening minute of that fight so his striking is good or better say good enough for Colton. Chiesa gets a sub in second round after Colton eating a lot of punches on the feet in the first.

Krause looked amazing against Stout and it was a short notice if I remember correctly. Green is good but I think Krause is better, I'm very interested to see what you guys think about this match up.

And Larkins should win. That loss against Carmont was bs, he has amazing TDD, didn't gas when defending those TDs and we saw how strong Carmont is against Costa. I just don't see Camozzi getting this to the ground and he was outstrike by Nick Ring in first round and a half , before Ring slowed down. I'm gonna look over Jacare loss because Jacare is a monster at MW. Larkins has better striking than Carmont, enough to win clearly on score cards

Very interesting card, can't wait to see if lines are any good

We haven't seen much of Khabilov's striking in the UFC yet but i think he'll be able to hang with Masvidal on the feet and even if Jorge would be able to stuff a majority of the takedowns i'm sure he will still be held up against the cage and dirty boxed there.

Overall Davis is a better fighter than Carmouche but you're right about the problem she has with cardio. Til she tires though she is one of the best fighters in the division, she has the BJJ to give anyone fits in the division including the champ. Alot depends on what kind of gameplan Davis will come in with, will she brawl stupidly like she did vs Kaufman (only reason she lost imo) or will she grapple from the start. Will be very interesting to see the odds for this fight. I'd fade Davis if she's a clear favorite but at the same time i'd consider her as the underdog. My guess is though that the odds will be close for this fight.

I think Siler is a tough matchup for Bermudez. Dennis is the better fighter imo but his weakness throughout his career has been his sub defense and if he takes Siler down it will get tested here. Bermudez has that amazing ability to recover and still win the fight but if Siler hurts someone he jumps to get that submission really quickly and Dennis does get rocked fairly easily. Best bet imo for this fight is fight ends ITD without picking the winner (at least if you wanna play it safe). I'm actually a big fan of Bermudez and don't care at all about Siler but this can go either way and that's whats making me cautious about betting on it (other than that prop).

Krause and Chiesa should win yes.

I have no idea how you can call Camozzi's tdd "great", are you thinking of someone else? What wrestlers has he stuffed? Furthermore, how many strikers has he fought and survived getting blasted enough for his chin to be considered "great"? I remember Kyle Noke hurting him on the feet then taking him down and subbing him quickly. His UFC resume is terrible, almost all the guys he has beat are fighting in smaller org's now.

Larkin showed good tdd against Carmont but I don't know when he has proven to have a great chin either, only time I remember him getting hit hard was against roided out Mo and he didn't take it well. I guess I just don't agree with your usage of "great" here more than anything, wouldn't you want to save that for when you're talking about Condit or Hendo's chin? Barao's tdd?

Anyway I'll be playing Larkin ITD as well as his ML, I think he has a lot of power and is by far the best striker Camozzi has ever faced.

Well yea i guess "great" is too strong of a word lol. But what i mainly mean with my post is that neither guy imo won't have much success with takedowns or knockdowns in this fight. Camozzi doesn't have much power, his strong point is his volume and his cardio while Larkin is more calculated. Neither guy has enough of an advantage anywhere in this fight to get a finish, expect alot of technical kickboxing from range (point fighting basically).

 

[hazak]

You're crazy if you think Larken (undefeated record*) is going to be anything close to even lol. I'm expecting the -200s.

Larkin's fight last time around was a real stinker though while Camozzi has overachieved so far in the UFC, this could bring the odds closer than you think. I fully expect Larkin to be the favorite here but not by that much. Probably opens up at -140 Larkin and Camozzi should be at +100 imo.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Larkin's fight last time around was a real stinker though while Camozzi has overachieved so far in the UFC, this could bring the odds closer than you think. I fully expect Larkin to be the favorite here but not by that much. Probably opens up at -140 Larkin and Camozzi should be at +100 imo.

I can't really tell by your tone, but do you see Camozzi having a shot in this fight? I'm really impressed by Larken's movement and his awkward style. I don't think Camozzi will find his footing/timing down to land any significant strikes.

Where do you stand?

 

[plekz]

Betting last 7 days

Summed it all up last night, realized since last saturday iv'e turned a 40$ invested in Ufc 166 into well over 2000$ which would give me a ROI of 3000% over that weeks span.

Needless to say best week in betting iv'e ever had, and iv'e hit so much unreal stuff this week. I realize though that it has everything to do with dumb luck and after y-day i'm gonna slow down completly and play it really safe until atleast next weekend.

Oh yeah, the kicker you ask? NO singles bets what so ever, ALL system plays.

 

[hazak]

I can't really tell by your tone, but do you see Camozzi having a shot in this fight? I'm really impressed by Larken's movement and his awkward style. I don't think Camozzi will find his footing/timing down to land any significant strikes.

Where do you stand?

I favor Larkin in this matchup but Camozzi has a slight chance for the upset due to his higher output of strikes/activity level and because he has better cardio out of these two. Larkin doesn't take enough chances and often he's more worried about not getting hit than he is about trying to win the rounds. Who knows though maybe he learned about that because of what happened in his last match vs Carmont and has adjusted his game accordingly. I'd go with Larkin via Decision and hedge it a bit with Fight ends in a Decision so you'll likely win both bets if Larkin gets the W and if the judges prefer Camozzi's higher output of strikes then at least you won't lose any money. I think the odds won't be that far apart for this fight and if that's the case then Camozzi doesn't have much value at all as a slight dog (my prediction for the line).

 

[Mga223]

204201188-1 10/24/13 12:11am $10.00 $398.66 Pending 11 Team Parlay
Win 10/24/13 8:25pm NFL Football 103 Carolina Panthers -260* vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win 10/27/13 1:00pm NFL Football 220 New England Patriots -270* vs Miami Dolphins
Pending 10/27/13 8:30pm NFL Football 229 Green Bay Packers -400* vs Minnesota Vikings
Win 10/25/13 8:00pm College Football 110 BYU -290* vs Boise State
Win 10/26/13 12:00pm College Football 123 Houston U/Rutgers Over 61 -110*
Win 10/26/13 8:00pm College Football 202 Ohio State -600* vs Penn State
Win 10/26/13 10:00pm College Football 205 Fresno State -330* vs San Diego State
Win 10/24/13 1:00pm European Cup Soccer 58 Dynamo Kiev (UEFA-Europa) -231* vs Thun (UEFA-Europa)
Win 10/24/13 3:05pm European Cup Soccer 88 Valencia (UEFA-Europa) -246* vs St. Gallen (UEFA-Europa)
Win 10/26/13 5:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Lyoto Machida -360* vs Mark Munoz
Cancelled 10/26/13 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Melvin Guillard -140* vs Ross Pearson



Unless the Vikings pull off a miracle comeback I should be good.

With Melvin fight being cancelled how much did it pay out?

 

[SenseiSeagalMMA]

Anyone see a chance at Liz Carmouch and Alex Davis opening close to EV?

 

[EndlessCritic]

Larkin's fight last time around was a real stinker though while Camozzi has overachieved so far in the UFC, this could bring the odds closer than you think. I fully expect Larkin to be the favorite here but not by that much. Probably opens up at -140 Larkin and Camozzi should be at +100 imo.

there is no possible way we get larkin at -140.

 

[Oblivian]

My results below. I'm going to get the new thread up today.

Update in red. Took a loss on this one. I bet $190 and walked away with $171.54 for a loss of $18.46 (-9.7%). Moved back to single digit ROI for the year. Hoping to rebound next event.

Singles
Iaquinta: $37.50 to win $24.49 $61.99
Cole Miller: $17.50 to win $8.33 $25.83
Barnett/Craig over 1.5: $17.50 to win $7.61 Loss
Tuck: $7.50 to win $9.38 Loss
Brooks/Awad over 1.5: $7.50 to win $5 $12.50
Steve Carl: $5 to win $14.25 $19.25
Munoz: $5 to win $13 Loss
Lauzon: $5 to win $12.75 Loss
Jimmo: $5 to win $8.75 Loss
Vila/Rettinghouse under 2.5: $5 to win $6 Loss
Sexton: $5 to win $4.55 Loss
Whiteford: $2.50 to win $10.38 Loss

Risk of $120 $119.57

Parlays
Sakara + Lineker: $12.50 to win $9.92 Loss
Moraes + Torres: $10 to win $6.53 Loss
Kuiper + Sparks/Mo under 1.5: $7.50 to win $5.78 Loss
Webb Simpson wins Shriners + Pearson: $7.50 to win $13.49 $9.70 (adj. for push)
Moraes + Hopkins + Field over Woodland: $7.50 to win $4.89 $12.39
Andrade/Sexton over 2.5 + Tirloni/Tiger over 1.5: $5 to win $7.10 Loss
Fadiora + Alfaya/Fitch over 2.5: $5 to win $6.72 $11.72
EJ Brooks + Munoz/Machida starts 2: $5 to win $5.96 Loss
Stringer + Firmino/Volkmann over 2.5: $5 to win $5.13 $8.13 (adj. for push)
Rhodes + Lawrence: $5 to win $5.03 $10.03

Risk of $70 $51.97

TOTAL RISK OF $190 $171.54

TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $614.41 Running Profit = $381.91 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.95%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2566.28 Total Profit = $2537.28 (Approximate ROI: 17.57%)

 

[hazak]

Anyone see a chance at Liz Carmouch and Alex Davis opening close to EV?

I think it just might.

there is no possible way we get larkin at -140.

Maybe so but i don't think he should be a bigger favorite lol. I'm not an expert at all with what the bookies will set the lines to when they open but having Larkin as 2 to 1 fav here would be bullshit.

 

[Oblivian]

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ultimate-fight-night-31-bets-post-yours-2592231/