My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and others) - Post Yours!

[Roger FedorAIR]

I don't expect to get that much talk (from outsiders) in this thread

You mean these guys?

 

[J0N0]

I honestly don't think Belfort is that good. I really don't. If he doesn't get BIsping early, he's in trouble.

I don't think anyone at 185 is very god other than Anderson and Weidmann tbh. I think the 4 top 10 fighters we saw last night proved that emphatically.

I did think Vitor did great against Jones though, I gotta give him that. He's not the quitter people have him down for.

 

[Oblivian]

I'd love to see the Outsiders against the Baseball Furies:

 

[electricute]

New UFC openers.

Struve (-180) / Hunt (+140) :: Struve dropped to -210 and now it's back to the original opener.
Fitch (-150) / Maia (+110) :: now Fitch (-170) / Maia (+130)
Faber (-180) / Menjivar (+140) :: 5D just opened this 15 mins ago. Already down to Faber (-290) / Menjivar (+210).

What do you guys think?

My picks are below. I'm ice cold. Fade away!

Spoiler

2x max on Hunt ($200) @ +145, +145.
3x max on Maia ($300) @ +110, +105, +150
1x max on Faber ($180) @ -180... line move too violently downwards to add more

i like fitch a lot in that fight. maia's stand up is horrible and doesn't have the TDs to get fitch down to submit him. might be bold enough to think fitch by...TKO???

dont think menjivar has anything for faber. faber is clear favourite. menijivar ended up on his back his last fight but an unknown. wont be able to keep faber away.

struve and hunt, not too sure. i want to lean struve, but i'll have to rewatch some hunt tape

 

[J0N0]

I'd love to see the Outsiders against the Baseball Furies:

Can you DIG IT!?

 

[Wanna Bet]

I think Fitch is going to end up breaking Maia later in the fight.

I think that's his only advantage although it may be the difference in the fight.

Maia has excellent offensive clinch TDs and Fitch's TDD is not elite. BJ had repeated success at completing TDs - whether gameplanning against it or not (that'd never work on GSP, Kos, etc. even if they weren't expecting it).

Fitch also trolls guys to take his back so he can later gain top position by spinning into their guard since he's "unchokeable"... Well, maybe so but there's a difference between putting your hand near a hot stove versus holding it there to see if you get burned. I'm not convinced Maia can RNC Fitch but I think it's not a good strategy to bait him into.

Striking-wise, while people criticize Maia for his K-1 faults, his standup is serviceable and he got the better of a (depleted) Weidman in R2/R3 on the feet, outstruck Munoz in R1 and was pretty even the rest of the fight striking-wise and faired much better against Anderson than Fitch did against GSP for what it's worth. I don't see Fitch being able to pick Maia apart.

I cap this fight at evens... Maia has the advantage early in the fight, Fitch later on. I think people are a little too optimistic on Fitch after derailing Erick Silva; he's the same guy that dropped the first two rounds to an undersized BJ via being outgrappled. I'll take the +money on Maia and hold my breath.

 

[Oblivian]

I think that's his only advantage although it may be the difference in the fight.

Maia has excellent offensive clinch TDs and Fitch's TDD is not elite. BJ had repeated success at completing TDs - whether gameplanning against it or not (that'd never work on GSP, Kos, etc. even if they weren't expecting it).

Fitch also trolls guys to take his back so he can later gain top position by spinning into their guard since he's "unchokeable"... Well, maybe so but there's a difference between putting your hand near a hot stove versus holding it there to see if you get burned. I'm not convinced Maia can RNC Fitch but I think it's not a good strategy to bait him into.

Striking-wise, while people criticize Maia for his K-1 faults, his standup is serviceable and he got the better of a (depleted) Weidman in R2/R3 on the feet, outstruck Munoz in R1 and was pretty even the rest of the fight striking-wise and faired much better against Anderson than Fitch did against GSP for what it's worth. I don't see Fitch being able to pick Maia apart.

I cap this fight at evens... Maia has the advantage early in the fight, Fitch later on. I think people are a little too optimistic on Fitch after derailing Erick Silva; he's the same guy that dropped the first two rounds to an undersized BJ via being outgrappled. I'll take the +money on Maia and hold my breath.

Definitely understandable. I'm a no-play at current odds. I'll take Fitch at around -125 though. I think we'll see shifts on this line.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

The thread got deleted by a mod due to multiple reports. I'm guessing it relates to the Bovada spammer getting reported too many times. I know the mods get a ridiculous amount of reports on fight night, so I say don't report any spammers or at least don't report the spammer multiple times. It makes the thread look like a problem.

That fucking sucks b/c I actually reported the moron. I never imagined a mod would delete an entire 1,000+ post thread rather than just ban the spammer. That is just laziness.

 

[JonSnitchPhones]

I don't know what happened to the other thread. (edit - just read about it after I posted this). I profited $35 against $65 risk last night. So my hot streak continues. My only regret was reaching on a parlay just to get a return on Holloway because I didn't want to bet -300 individually, and I wanted to get +odds so I added Leben who I wasn't overly high on. I should have taken the odds in the -100's and I would have profited about as much as I risked.

For UFC on FX7 I'm on Rothwell and Belfort at small to medium for me.

 

[J0N0]

Hmmm, on William Hill they have a bet: Any British fighter to win a UFC Championship in 2013 - +1600

..do you think they'd pay up if Overeem won? I don't see how they couldn't??

 

[Kaffe]

At +150 I am definitely betting Maia at least small.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I think that's his only advantage although it may be the difference in the fight.

Maia has excellent offensive clinch TDs and Fitch's TDD is not elite. BJ had repeated success at completing TDs - whether gameplanning against it or not (that'd never work on GSP, Kos, etc. even if they weren't expecting it).

Fitch also trolls guys to take his back so he can later gain top position by spinning into their guard since he's "unchokeable"... Well, maybe so but there's a difference between putting your hand near a hot stove versus holding it there to see if you get burned. I'm not convinced Maia can RNC Fitch but I think it's not a good strategy to bait him into.

Striking-wise, while people criticize Maia for his K-1 faults, his standup is serviceable and he got the better of a (depleted) Weidman in R2/R3 on the feet, outstruck Munoz in R1 and was pretty even the rest of the fight striking-wise and faired much better against Anderson than Fitch did against GSP for what it's worth. I don't see Fitch being able to pick Maia apart.

I cap this fight at evens... Maia has the advantage early in the fight, Fitch later on. I think people are a little too optimistic on Fitch after derailing Erick Silva; he's the same guy that dropped the first two rounds to an undersized BJ via being outgrappled. I'll take the +money on Maia and hold my breath.

I think I'm w/ you WB. Indeed, Maia is not a great striker, but he's solid enough on the feet to compete with Fitch. The only time we've really seen Maia get destroyed via striking was by Marquardt; yet Fitch doesn't have one punch KO power that will scare Maia away from coming in. What's more, Fitch is a bit slow and plodding, he is not going to outspeed Maia the way Weidman did. Furthermore, Fitch is not as strong nor as good a wrestler as Sonnen, and Demian dropped Chael on his head with quickness. Certainly Fitch's BJJ is far superior to Chael's, but it was the fact that Maia could even drag Chael to the mat which surprised a lot of people.

A WW Maia has looked very strong and rejuvenated, I know the DHK fight was short, but again, like Sonnen, the ere ability to get a beast like DHK to the mat speaks volumes to the level of Maia's grappling strength. Additionally, Maia was able to replicate his success over DKH in the his bout with Story who is another strong wrestler. Combine this with the fact that Fitch was taken down multiple times by blown up LW BJ Penn and you have to be concerned w/ Fitch.

It will be interesting to see how Fitch and AKA gameplan for Maia. Does he try and win a kickboxing match? Does he take Maia down and dive into his guard? I believe Fitch will try and emulate Couture's gameplan vs. Gonzaga where he just grinds on him against the cage and utilizes dirty boxing.

But, we shall see. At + odds I'll take Maia.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Some douchebag kept quoting themselves and gloating about their analysis and then a bigger douchebag with a mask joined in so Sherdog was left with no choice but to kill it with fire.

That plus some kind soul kept spamming the thread with referral codes for Bovada because he innocently wanted to help people gamble online. And if they may have missed the message the first three times, he was there to remind them of it yet again...

LMFAO!! I can't stand people who quote themselves. Fucking attention whores. And lol at Nacho Libre posting prognostication vids on Sherdog as if anyone cares. Incredibly, there is an urban legend going around that that dude wears a mask to cover his burnt, gnarled visage, damaged in a scientific experiment gone awry. That or he's a pedophile. I'm betting on the latter. :wink:

 

[RP3X]

It's going to be a long couple weeks till the next UFC

After new year... 3 weeks

However dont forget in 2 weeks time we have the final Strikeforce event, so not next weekend but weekend after, then the following weekend FX 7 event, then weekend after that Fox 6, where mighty mouse will out wrestle and out strike dodson purely based on speed to capture a ud.

 

[Goreds1994]

I'm betting on the latter too.

 

[Wanna Bet]

LMFAO!! I can't stand people who quote themselves. Fucking attention whores. And lol at Nacho Libre posting prognostication vids on Sherdog as if anyone cares. Incredibly, there is an urban legend going around that that dude wears a mask to cover his burnt, gnarled visage, damaged in a scientific experiment gone awry. That or he's a pedophile. I'm betting on the latter. :wink:

Technically Nacho Libre isn't a pedophile if the children signed a consent form. At least that's what my lawyer says is defensible in Mexico. I'm doctoring those forms as we speak; anyone here a good English-to-Spanish translator? Gracias

 

[Goreds1994]

LOL
Just put some money with each form and your good to go.

 

[JonSnitchPhones]

Oblivian, you were oblivious to the Bellator debut happening two days before this event. You should include it in the title.

 

[Oblivian]

Oblivian, you were oblivious to the Bellator debut happening two days before this event. You should include it in the title.

Well I just put "and others" because people will be putting Dream + Cage Warriors in here as well.

 

[Oblivian]

That fucking sucks b/c I actually reported the moron. I never imagined a mod would delete an entire 1,000+ post thread rather than just ban the spammer. That is just laziness.

It's not a mod that I normally deal with. I think all mods have to pitch in on UFC nights. I won't lose any sleep over it. I know it's happened to other threads as well.