My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and others) - Post Yours!

Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped afterwards.

I've got some early plays going. I'll probably only play around $100-$150. I'm not really liking this card too much overall.

Singles
Gonzaga: $12.50 to win $16.88
Khabib: $12.50 to win $7.35
Payan: $7.50 to win $5.77
Dolloway: $5 to win $7.50
Saffiedine: $5 to win $12.50
Anthony Smith: $5 to win $12.50
Saff/Marquardt doesn't go 5: $5 to win $8.25
Kyle: $2.50 to win $8
Herman: $2.50 to win $7.50

Parlays
Klitschko + Cruz + Cleverly + Froch + Price + Bisping: $12.50 to win $20.97
Barnett + Noons: $12.50 to win $7.85
Healy + Kennedy + Cormier + Barnett: $10 to win $6.95
Colts (over Chiefs) + Hawn: $5 to win $13.07
Field over T. Clark (golf) + Caballero (box) + Hernandez (box) + Perez (box) + Cormier + Barnett + Healy + Kennedy + Not Belfort Dec: $5 to win $6.96
Field over Stricker (golf) + Gavin (boxing) + Cormier + Gonzaga/Rothwell ITD + Not Belfort by Dec: $5 to win $5.51
Nunes + Baszler + Dolloway: $2.50 to win $12.35

TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2205.80 Total Profit = $2176.80 (Approximate ROI: 20.5%)

 

New UFC openers.

Struve (-180) / Hunt (+140) :: Struve dropped to -210 and now it's back to the original opener.
Fitch (-150) / Maia (+110) :: now Fitch (-170) / Maia (+130)
Faber (-180) / Menjivar (+140) :: 5D just opened this 15 mins ago. Already down to Faber (-290) / Menjivar (+210).

What do you guys think?

My picks are below. I'm ice cold. Fade away!

Spoiler

2x max on Hunt ($200) @ +145, +145.
3x max on Maia ($300) @ +110, +105, +150
1x max on Faber ($180) @ -180... line move too violently downwards to add more

 

The big bucks have gone down lol:

Kawajiri + Mach 15 for 16
Takaya 10 for 7
Kang 5 for 6

^those + Aoki,Bilbiano 1 for 11

31/40

Ballin'

.....

Only bet I have down for FX 7 atm is 50 on Lentz>Nunes @+175

 

As for futures, I'm playing the following for NYE:

Fields + Overeem: $5 to win $10.79
Fields + Rousey + Machida: $5 to win $14.98
Kawajiri + Aoki + Rashad: $5 to win $6.66
Sakurai + Frampton + GSP: $5 to win $5.11

Any losses incurred I will put on 2012's totals. I will not be playing the Colts today either.

Edit: Adding in Kankaanpaa + Faber: $5 to win $6.90

 

Man, I hate UFC 157 for betting so far. I'm on all favs.

 

Hey O, what happened to the thread last night? I kept getting an invalid link error.

 

The thread got deleted by a mod due to multiple reports. I'm guessing it relates to the Bovada spammer getting reported too many times. I know the mods get a ridiculous amount of reports on fight night, so I say don't report any spammers or at least don't report the spammer multiple times. It makes the thread look like a problem.

 

If anyone has sportbet & betdsi then they have lines crossed on the Daly fight according to bfo

 

Some douchebag kept quoting themselves and gloating about their analysis and then a bigger douchebag with a mask joined in so Sherdog was left with no choice but to kill it with fire.

That plus some kind soul kept spamming the thread with referral codes for Bovada because he innocently wanted to help people gamble online. And if they may have missed the message the first three times, he was there to remind them of it yet again...

 

Hey Oblivion, how about a thread just for the DREAM card over in the Contenders? I think it's sigbificant enough to warrant it, and posting it in the f61s would keep the post count down and a lot more on topic...

Anyways, I'm big on Manhoef @ -155. I've watched all of Kang's fights in RFC for the last couple of years, and I'm shocked that the line is even that close. I've never seen a guy decline so hard, so quickly, ever...

 

i said this before but i'm on bisping in the next fight. I think belfort is overrated and bisping can work the stand up with his pitter patter strikes, go deep with his cardio and keep the fight standing.

belfort showed horrible stand up in the jones fight, i know there was something about an injury, but still i looked bad.

 

I think Fitch is going to end up breaking Maia later in the fight.

 

aoki + sakurai + bibiano + kitaoka + kawajiri: 100 to win 280

fields 200 to win 340
katja 200 to win 230

 

If someone else wants to create one, that's fine. I just figure the talk will end up being about UFC as well so I'm making one. I'm only playing Dream tiny combined with others as well. Honestly, I don't expect to get that much talk (from outsiders) in this thread since we are so far away.

 

It's going to be a long couple weeks till the next UFC

 

I agree, but Manhoef is more than capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He's done it so may time against Akiyama, Lawler etc and he looked like crap against Jae Young Kim who just seemed to be some fat guy they found on the street. He should ko Kang early, but not so sure it's a smart bet unless you're only going really small for fun.

I want Mike to win SO bad, but I have a really hard time seeing it.

Trivia: All of Bisping's fights have gone according to the odds since he's been in the ufc.

 

Last night taught me a valuable lesson.

Any night I'm getting murdered (so most nights), I'll just spam the thread with advertisements and report myself so mods erase all records of my habitual betting fails... muhuhahaha...

Spoiler

Seriously don't do this or I'll hunt you down and inoculate you with Fournier's gangrene

 

Am glad you said it 1st, I sorta favoured bisping also but he did look almost drained and slow lately, and Vitors still fast and powerful even in round 2.... see odds are fairly even.

I guess many are just gonna go for vitor as the fav, which cant blame anyone for.

Gonna see if I can slowly claw way back but its unlikely

Were still 3 weeks away lol

 

I honestly don't think Belfort is that good. I really don't. If he doesn't get BIsping early, he's in trouble.

 

Depends if we see broke fitch again :icon_lol: