My UFC 165 Bets - Post Yours (Part III)

[EzFlyer]

Makdessi has the best profile pic

vemola's is better. they're my favorite two (darren elkins 3rd i think). but vemola > makdessi > elkins

someone find the pics plz !

 

[Card]

Does Omielanczuk always look like that?... pretty soft compared to Guelmino.

 

[Guillaumechrist]

First 135.25 title fight in ufc history!!!

Damn dat 250 gram weight advantage... unfair if you ask me :icon_lol:

 

[EzFlyer]

weigh-in thoughts as usual.

Spoiler

FB/YT
guelmino-omielanczuk
omielanczuk looks as expected. never should be a HW w/his frame, but he's comfortable i guess. he doesn'tlook terrible. 245.
guelmino decent. same as vs barnett. comes in around 230.
guelmino about 1" taller, if that.. 6'3 vs 6'0 i don't think so..

delorme-caceres
BLR looks high... right to the towel & makes weight. he looks about the same as always. skinny but fine.
delorme actually i think looks a little less awkward than normal.. looks pretty decent..
BLR is maybe 2" taller? hard to tell w/the fro

prazeres-ronson
prazeres pic looks like nogueir'a bottom half of his face, and werdum's top half lol
ronson looks very mediocre. not terrible, but just very plain.
prazeres cutting to 155 for first time, right? looks pretty strong.. kinda like a smaller palhares in a way... and he makes it. and he makes my bet because of it.
didn't see them squre off sry ><

makdessi-forte
makdessi's portrait kills me everytime, poor guy. him and vemola, such lol's.
forte looks the best he ever has. i swear i have a hole in my m emory of everything regarding forte vs etim, but forte looks like a different person from tuf. i HATE my makdessi plays.
makdessi looks the same as always. like he should be 145. no different here.
forte's only about 1" taller.

FS1
gagnon-kimura
kimura looks decent, bout the same as his debut.
gagnon looks like a tank. he always looks good, but this is best he's ever looked. 3rd unit going up for me.
kimura is 2" taller.

thompson-clements
thompson looks pretty darn good, i think the best he's ever looked.
clements looks actually his best, too. less soft than usual.
thompson is 3-4" taller for a striking match...

menjivar-reis
reis lookin pretty strong, as good as he's ever looked.
menjivar looks solid, too, though.. but looks worried.. and yea. 137. he has to go back and cut a pound. hrmmmm
menjivar is like 1" taller

ricci-jury
jury looks good. looks same as always.
ricci looks the same as his last fight.. i kinda wonder if he'd be better served trying to bulk up and go back to 170. he just seems too skinny at 155.
ricci an inch taller

PPV
nurmagomedov-healy
khabib up first, looks same as always.. will he make the weight this time? right to the towel... says a prayer.. and he makes it. he's freakin relieved!
healy time -- my god, as always, what a beast for 155. cheeks sucked in but he makes it and looks great.
healy is a couple inches taller as expected.

carmont-philippou
carmont looks awesome, as usual. awesome frame for MW.
costa looks great, too. couple ripped 85'ers. (don't see longo or serra, tho)
carmont is 4" taller..

schaub-mitrione
mitrione looks sub par. he's looked better. 260.5 with pants on.
schaub, for all his "hard work", still has a gut. he's looked better, before, too. 237.
lotta words.
schaub is an inch or so taller (mitrione had shoes on i think)

wineland-barao
wineland looks solid. bout same as his last several fights.
barao looks good, same as he always does. eddie looks mad at him!
wineland an inch taller.. i don't get it when people call barao a "huge 135".

gustaf-jones
gustaf looks solid. bout the same as the shogun fight, perhaps a little slimmer.
JBJ thinks throwing clothing to fans will make him more popular... anyway..
he looks fantastic. as good as ever. i think maybe a lil better than last two fights.
gustaf wearing shoes, but think he's about 1" taller. we knew this, tho. jones won't make eye contact.

 

[Card]

Gustafsson has his shoes on.

 

[macphee]

Jones throws his empty Gatorade bottle to the fans, is immediately arrested for littering

The fight's off guys

 

[PuertoRican]

weigh-in thoughts as usual.

Spoiler

delorme-caceres
BLR looks high... right to the towel & makes weight. he looks about the same as always. skinny but fine.
delorme actually i think looks a little less awkward than normal.. looks pretty decent..
BLR is maybe 2" taller? hard to tell w/the fro

Spoiler

[YT]i7AUpGXLDdk[/YT]

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Pretty sure McGee comes in as the favorite. Probably -150

Not so sure about this. Think it may be like Kelvin -110 Court -107 or visa versa. I'd about guarantee that by fight night KG is a slight to moderate fave.

Originally, I was thinking that Schaub would take it. Then all you fuckers made me second guess myself and put me on Mitrione for almost 4u which is my max bet. Now, I am back to thinking Schaub might edge it. I got Mitrione @ -130 for 3.9u to win 3u. He better pull this off.

I like Mitrione a lot more so it will be easy to root for him.

Same deal w/ me but I did the complete 360 degree turn around. I was originally on Schaub and then this thread had me leaning toward MH and almost betting him, but then upon viewing tape I went back to my original pick in Schaub. I'm going to do/ a b/d of that fight, but have concluded Schaub has far more tools and is more athletic. It is very close and I believe it's a fight where no one is really wrong in their pick b/c it's a fight that if fought 10 x in a row could end 10 different ways w/ either fighter getting the win. In short, I don't think either fighter has a distinct advantage over the other save for MH having a far better chin.

I don't really agree here man Jury hasn't shown very much finishing ability.. Ricci has only been finished once which was a huge punch by Curran.. Jury can't really do..

I don't really care if you agree. Whatta you know? Huh? Huh? :wink:

Seriously though, I may eat crow, but I think Jury fucking decimates Ricci and most likely gets his back and sinks in an RNC. I'm also going to playu Jury -3.5 as I don't think Ricci can take a single round from MJ. My anaysis is as much a fade on Ricci as it is a play on Jury.

Deal. The Red Sox blow though, can't wait till they choke in October. You're a Steeler fan too right?

Gonna lose again bitch!

Spoiler

BTW: Low blow Reds! At least my Sox aren't fighting and clawing for a Wild Card slot. lol Best record in baseball bitch!

Spoiler

Spoiler

And I'm a 49ers fan ass.

Terrado/Hawn b/d

Spoiler

Haven't read most of the thread so not sure if anyone did a b/d of this fight yet but...

Taking a flyer on Herman Terrado tonight against Hawn. I know Hawn is just one fight removed from his title fight against Chandler and Herman is fighting his first fight in Bellator (but does has a couple wins in Strikeforce), but at +410, I like the style matchup for Herman. There isn't a lot of tape on Herman outside of him smashing some guys at local shows but just learning a little bit about his training and style makes me think its worth betting $25 to get $100.

Hawn is a judo guy that prefers to strike. Of his 15 wins, 10 are by (t)ko. Herman is a tank. A young tank (about 15 years younger than the 37 year old Hawn) with almost as many fights as Hawn does.

In Terrado's two biggest fights of his career (in Strikeforce), he showed he could finish a fight at any time.

His first Strikeforce fight was rather sloppy where he got caught with some strikes but showed a good chin. He returned fire while taking punches and was able to KO AJ Mathews (a 6 and 2 fighter). Not overly impressive but showed he had a good chin.

His second fight was against Chris Brown (no not that Chris Brown, lol). Chris is 10-1 and his only loss was against Herman. Chris had the cleaner striking and was able to land shots on Herman in each of the first two rounds, but what I like was that although Herman likes to strike, he doesn't just cover up and turn into a punching bag when he's getting tagged. He shoots for takedowns or tie ups to get his bearings. In the third round, exhausted and losing on the feet, he took the fight to the ground. He was able to to get mount and finished with an armbar. Showed me he had heart and is able to adapt within the fight.

Long story short:
Both guys can grapple (Hawn a high level Judoka, Herman started as a bjj player is now training with Barret Yoshida).

Both guys like to strike. Both are a little wild. Hawn probably a little more technical. Herman probably has more power in his punches.

Herman is 15 years younger and stronger, but I can't really say faster/quicker. Hawn is still pretty athletic for a 37 year old.

My only play on this card (since none of the other fights really interest me enough to even research) $29 to win $119. I might possibly take a look at the Justin Baesman fight since he's a local fighter, but I doubt it.

Nice b/d Plat, thinkin' bout takin' a flier on Terrado myself

weekend bets as of now:

Spoiler

Bella 100 Risk: 548
Lima: 200 parlays // Saunders
Anderson +335: 40 for 134 // O1.5: 40 for 48 // War Machine
Terrado +450: 40 for 180 // O1.5: 40 for 52 // Hawn
Baesman/Weedman
Melo -140: 56 for 40 // Keslar
Marx -165: 132 for 80 // Bender
parlays
100 for 99.42 lima -285 & makdessi -210 (ufc 165)
100 for 71.01 lima -325 & thompson -325 (ufc 165)
---
Cage 23 Risk: 146
Niinimaki -265: 104 for 40 // Watson
Reynolds +185: 40 for 74 // Kuivanen
---
UFC 165 Risk: 1,731.33
Gustafsson // Gustaf +10.5: 50 for 163 // O2.5: 99 parlays // NOT JJ KO: 100 parlay // JJ
Wineland // Wineland +10.5: 50 for 100 // Barao
Schaub -134: 134.33 for 100 // U1.5: 50 for 57.50 // Mitrione
Carmont +3.5: 140 for 100 // O2.5: 175 for 100 -- 199 parlays // Philippou
Nurmagomedov -3.5: 100 for 115 // Healy
Ricci +300: 100 for 300 // O2.5: 99 parlays // Jury
Menjivar/Reis
Thompson: 200 parlays // Clements
Gagnon +158: 200 for 315 // Kimura
Makdessi: 200 parlays // Forte
Prazeres/Ronson
Delorme +130: 100 for 130 // Delorme DEC: 40 for 180 // O1.5: 99 parlays // Caceres
Guelmino/Omielanczuk O1.5: 40 for 68
parlays
100 to win 117.58 NOT jones KO -260 & carmont-phiippou O2.5 -175
100 to win 94.55 on thompson -305 & makdessi -215
100 for 99.42 lima -285 (bella 100) & makdessi -210
100 for 71.01 lima -325 (bella 100) & thompson -325
20 RR - gust ML, wine ML, ricci ML, schaub DEC, khabib KO, delorme DEC
33 for 111.24 AG-JJ O2.5, CP/FC O2.5, MR/MJ O2.5
33 for 102.12 AG/JJ O2.5, CP/FC O2.5, AC/RD O1.5
33 for 104.96 AG/JJ O2.5, MR/MJ O2.5, AC/RD O1.5
33 for 88.30 CP/FC O2.5, MR/MJ O2.5, AC/RD O1.5
---

ufc isn't done. i'll be betting on gustaf and wineland, prolly right before fight at highest price.

bellator and cage are prolly set.

i *HATE* my plays on lima/thompson/makdessi (especially makdessi). just 3 bad parlays. hopefully they hit.

Nice bets EZ

BOL

That parlay is a significant % of your total action ( so far ). You must be very confident in nurmagomedov. I like the guy but I have a hard time convincing myself to back him at current price.

Btw, did you make that parlay recently? I think the price on Jones is a joke. I don't care if he's a "lock" that's a square line.

I think I have a live parlay with jones but I got him at -600 or something. But gonna bet straight on Gus now, that's for sure.

WAR ALEX!

Last time I bet against Khabib (Tibau) he Nurmagomedov with my money. ba-dum-TSH"

In all seriousness, I think Khabib is just too fast and his Sambo is deadly. He can out grapple Healy and quite possibly find his chin.

I got JBJ @ -620

TBH I've stretched myself quite thin on ML + Props + Parlays. I usually do small plays beforehand and make most my money through LB. But I really like my plays.

Weren't you on Ronson first? What made you change your mind to Prazeres? I've had my mind on Tractor the whole time but haven't seen many people agree with me lol. I made the same parlay with those 4 as soon as the lines came out for the whole card Ride or Die brah! I don't think Schaub can finish Meathead so do you see him outgrappling him for 3 rounds without getting caught? That's risky business

I was never on Ronson, and like Tractor b/c of his strength and grappling edge.

I see Schaub mixing it up, but mostly just being the longer, rangier, quicker striker that can beat MH to the punch.

Bones / Gus o2.5 was +130 just a couple days ago....

=/

Ouch!

 

[EzFlyer]

i saw your post, goodfella GL either way on the o/u on ricci-jury, we're just opposed on that one

 

[Goreds1994]

Gonna lose again bitch!

Spoiler

BTW: Low blow Reds! At least my Sox aren't fighting and clawing for a Wild Card slot. lol Best record in baseball bitch!

Spoiler

Spoiler

And I'm a 49ers fan ass.

Will post this again, to make sure you see it:

Just to make sure, anything other than MJ ITD and I win right?

Regarding the MLB stuffs

Spoiler

Best record means shit in the playoffs. The Reds and Nats had that honor last year, and they each lost in the first round. I think the Sox are a very good team, but I don't think they are going to make the series. FYI I don't have anything against them either lol. Only team I hate is St. Louis. Not a fan of the Yanks or Dodgers (sans Vin Scully) either.

 

[arrelione]

100 to win 725 on Alex G!

 

[YoungScholar]

Another great weekend of fights, let's hope for our dogs to come through and our ROI's to be 3 digits

Here are my finalized Bellator bets and what is probably close to my finalized UFC bets. As always, props to everyone breaking stuff down and participating in the discussions!


Bellator 100

Luis Melo > Ron Keslar - $15 to win $10.8

Herman Terrado > Rick Hawn - $15 to win $67.5

Vaughn Anderson > War Machine - $10 to win $22.5

O 1.5 Vaughn Anderson vs. War Machine - $20 to wiin $20.6

Ben Saunders > Douglas Lima - $10 to win $27.5

5xSingle bets risking $70to win $148.9


UFC 165

Nandor Guelmino > Daniel Omielanczuk - $15 to win $33.75

Matt Mitrione > Brendan Schaub - $25 to win $48

Renan Barao by submission > Eddie Wineland - $20 to win $48

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson NOT FOTN - $20 to win $9

4xSingle bets risking $80 to win $138.75


Overall I'm pretty happy with the bets although some lines could have been better. I Just need Melo and one of my dogs to come through to be in the green tonight, or two dogs, or just Terrado - so I'm hoping for some great fights and a lot of upsets

BOL fellas!

 

[JonSnitchPhones]

If you don't mind probably losing money, I don't know how you can't bet Terrado at this line. It's ridiculous his line keeps improving. I think there's a lot of overvaluing of Hawn now because he's the more known of the two, his results from 155 are being conflated, and bettors are looking for someone to add to parlays. Ya know, Karbo actually managed to have some success on the feet against him. Hawn may be passed his peak and isn't as good at ww. It's just a fucked up line, seemingly. Terrado should be high +100's, maybe low +200's. It's all the way up to +450 now. I keep adding a little bit more, and a little bit more to it. I'm up to $20 to make $80 right now. That's as much as I risked on any of my non value plays. Even though there's a good chance I'm setting myself up for a small net loss for this card, where it was highly likely I'd at least win a little money before, I can't pass up that value. And if I happen to hit that one bet, out of 4, I'm already easily profitable.

Conversely, I don't I think just about any number would be value to bet on Baesman against Weidman. Baesman is a rudimentary striker, without much power. He's an average wrestler. He has average bjj. To boot he's small for the weight class, and has quit easily, twice submitting to strikes in the first round. He got this opportunity off a 4 fight win streak, 3 of those coming by sd. On the other side, we have Brent Weedman, who looked the best he ever has in his last fight. He took Zaromskis down almost at will, showing off improved wrestling, gameplanning, and strength. He's no longer skinny and the guy who'll brawl to beat you where you are strongest, not that it would get him beat here. He has better striking technique, power, and durability. Baesman's best skill is probably his wrestling (if I have to choose one). But even if Weedman ends up on his back, he won a decision against Hornbuckle largely off his back, a couple years ago. His subs and sweeps are very slick. I'd be as shocked if he lost, as Bubba Jenkins, the -1400 favorite. If anything, you should put Weedman in a parlay for that reason, although I opted to pass because I seldom play big favorites period.

Finally, the last fight which I'll give my late thoughts about is Charles-Mighty Mo. I've watched some video of Charles, and the only thing I really don't like about him is his cardio. He's an above average athlete and well-rounded for a HW. As it pertains to this particular match-up, some things he does that I think translates well are his td's and striking defense. He times a lot of his td's to counter his opponent's aggressive striking attempts, and in the clinch he has a technical inside trip. Those things ought to get Mighty Mo to the ground more than once, if this fight is not ended either way early. And I don't think it will in favor of Mighty Mo because technically Charles does everything right striking d wise be it move his feet laterally, subtly move his head, bring his hands back to his head after striking, and not spend excessive time in the pocket throwing combos. The only thing I really don't like about him is his suspect cardio. By the middle of the 2nd round on, that could diminish everything that I said he does positively that would translate to this fight. But what are we banking on? A 42 year old jumbo HW outlasting someone, or withstanding several minutes on the ground when he's shown no sub d or game off his back before? I think that's a solid pass at that line.

 

[YoungScholar]

Is there really one and a half hours left until prelims start? Or am I failing at a simple time zone conversion?

 

[Guillaumechrist]

My bets for tonight and tomorow.
I added a couple... i need to stop now.

Bellator

Small on Marx
-----
Small on Terrado
Small on O1.5
-----
Small on Melo
------
Small on Anderson
Small on O1.5
-----
Very Small on Saunders
Very Small on U1.5

Parlay
Very Small on Melo+ Marx + Hawn/Terrado O1.5 + Anderson/WM O1.5

(375 to win 886.35)

UFC165


Very Small Caceres DEC
Small on Goes Distance
------
Small on Guelmino
Small on O1.5
Microscopic on Guelmino DEC
-----
Small on Tractor
-----
Small on Gagnon
Very Small on Gagnon ITD
----
Microscopic on Ricci sub (for action i guess)
----
Medium on Carmont
----
Medium on Healy
Medium on Fight goes distance
----
Small on Mitrione
Very Small on Mitrione ITD
----
Tiny on Wineland
Very Small on O2.5
Very Small on Fight starts RD 3
Very Small on Barao DEC
----
My bets for the main event are so complicated, it's hedge city, so I'll just say that I'm basically on ''not Jones by KO''.... I'm making money unless Jones wins by KO.... I have about 250$ on it, If Gus wins I'm making the most, then Jones by sub, then Jones decision... and I lose the 250 if Jones wins by ko U2.5


(Total 975 to win 1460)

***Sizes**
Very Small (20-30$) Small ( 40-60$) Medium (70-90$) Big (100-125$) Very Big (150$ & Over)

 

[JonSnitchPhones]

Is there really one and a half hours left until prelims start? Or am I failing at a simple time zone conversion?

You got it pal!

 

[hazak]

Weigh ins thoughts:
------------------

Caceres seriously looked high like as if he just smoked pot before getting on stage, he seriously looked out of it lol. All that talk he's been talking about retiring in the next few years says that he's probably lacking motivation. Prazeres looks mad strong at 155. Kimura looked way better than in his first fight (but that was on short notice so yea) but Gagnon looked pretty good too. Kimura bigger than i expected. Thompson looks much bigger than i expected compared to Clements too, not to mention he looks to be in better shape than for his other UFC fights. Khabib is easily the biggest dude Healy has faced since dropping to LW. IMO Philippou looks better than he's been before.

 

[YoungScholar]

You got it pal!

Cheers, guess I have UFC weigh ins and a Dana scrum to kill the time with

 

[crewman]

Weigh ins thoughts:
------------------

Caceres seriously looked high like as if he just smoked pot before getting on stage, he seriously looked out of it lol. All that talk he's been talking about retiring in the next few years says that he's probably lacking motivation. Prazeres looks mad strong at 155. Kimura looked way better than in his first fight (but that was on short notice so yea) but Gagnon looked pretty good too. Kimura bigger than i expected. Thompson looks much bigger than i expected compared to Clements too, not to mention he looks to be in better shape than for his other UFC fights. Khabib is easily the biggest dude Healy has faced since dropping to LW. IMO Philippou looks better than he's been before.

I think Tractor had a bad cut. He looked stiff and nervous. Usually means his cardio wont be good, hope we see an easrly finish.

Kimura is a big guy but I personally dont rate him too high as a fighter.

Phillipou has been training mad hard.

Agreed with Thompson.

After weigh Ins I will put a small bit down on Cacares.

Also Wineland looked great, I think the first few rounds will be competitive, Barao not as big as I expected him to be, square bet to lay him at the juice imo.

 

[Pacemaker Joe]

Both Schaub and Mitrione are undefeated if Herb Dean isn't reffing, so I'm betting on a draw. :icon_lol: Ok, no, I'm on Mitrione.