My UFC 165 Bets - Post Yours (Part III)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Originally Posted by WalkenWouldOwn said:
Don't be mad that the red sox are so much better than the reds!

zYf3h.gif


Originally Posted by Goeds1994 said:
The Red Sox are peaking now/have peaked now. They should be peaking in 2 weeks. I'd take the Reds over the Sox in a 7 game series personally. Reds have a better starting staff and Chapman, when he is on, is the best closer in baseball. Koji has been great for the Sox lately though no doubt.
The Sox have a better lineup, but it is close in a NL format. In the AL Ortiz will obviously be an edge that the Reds can't match.

I'd give the Reds the edge at first, shortstop, centerfield and rightfield with Votto, Cozart, Choo and Bruce.
It's a push at third and catcher imo.
The only clear edge the Sox would have is at second and DH.

LMAO!!!! Only if facts supported your wild assertions you'd be in business.

Lemme take this drivel piece by piece and destroy it piece-by-piece.

Better pitching staff? Pfft. Hardly! BOS as a team has a 3.74 ERA & CIN a 3.38 ERA. The difference here (minimal as it is) is b/c in the National League you have pitchers batting whereas the AL we have a DH. No secret as to why 7 of the top 10 pitching staffs in the MLB are from the NL. The discrepancy comes from that easy out in 9 hole. While you're facing Stephen Strasburg in the batting box we're having to pitch to Chris Davis.

As far as team batting goes its not even a close race! We are #1 in the MLB and you're 11th place. BOS .275 CIN .250 Additionally, we have scored 132 more runs then you and have 177 more hits, 103 more RBI and 17 more home runs.

CF: Choo vs. Ellsbury : Choo is batting .285 Ellsbury hitting .14 points better at .299. It's 52 to 18 in the SB category favor of Ellsbury. RBI is tied at 52 apiece but Ellsbury is by far the better defensive outfielders. A former Gold Glove Award winner. (2011)

RF: Bruce vs. Victorino: Bruce is batting .270 Victorino hitting .25 points better at .295. Indeed, Bruce's far ahead in RBI and home runs but that is because he has had a 150 more AB's. Again, I'll take 3 x Gold Glove winner Victorino in my outfield anyday over Bruce.

2B: Dustin Pedroia destroys Brandon Phillips .299 to .261

1B: Napoli vs. Votto: I love Mike Napoli but I'll concede defeat here same as at SS.

But Reds, single players don't win championships and as good as Choo & Votto are, your team is not even in playoff contention lol. And don't say that we peaked to soon b/c we have led our division from pillar to post. We have been in first place sine Apr. and we're STILL in first place bitch! Not peaking. Consistent homie!
 
Last edited:
It's hard to believe those odds for Jones-Gustafsson. I mean...I think Jones is gonna win, but it's closer than that.
 
It's hard to believe those odds for Jones-Gustafsson. I mean...I think Jones is gonna win, but it's closer than that.

should be around 7:1 IMO, still no value on gustaffson though lol
 
It's hard to believe those odds for Jones-Gustafsson. I mean...I think Jones is gonna win, but it's closer than that.

"OMG, Jones is -800, that's like a sure thing, I'll put $100 on it" 5000 times.
 
I think Tractor had a bad cut. He looked stiff and nervous. Usually means his cardio wont be good, hope we see an easrly finish.

Kimura is a big guy but I personally dont rate him too high as a fighter.

Phillipou has been training mad hard.

Agreed with Thompson.

After weigh Ins I will put a small bit down on Cacares.

Also Wineland looked great, I think the first few rounds will be competitive, Barao not as big as I expected him to be, square bet to lay him at the juice imo.

Tractor said in his interviews that he has more cardio than ever and that he's faster, said the cut went fine. I think his nervousness was more about being outside of Brazil for the first time for a fight. Kimura hit some beautiful sweeps and transitions on Camus while he was on the bottom, he has high level BJJ for sure and Gagnon has a below average gastank. Wineland should be competitive for the first 2 rounds and then he'll start to fade and Barao will pour it on til he gets the sub. Barao via Sub or ITD has great value imo, Wineland has only gone 5 rounds 1 time in his career and he lost that one (to Chase Beebe).
 
Thoughts on weigh ins:

"Who the hell throws a shoe?"

It's a small MMA-related world

300.ap_.lc.082911.jpg
 
-iGNP NFL
"I agree with atlanta, i love games where the better quarterback is the underdog. regarding the packers/bengals, IMO the 49ers are a much better team than the bengals and the packers played pretty well against them on the road in the first game of the season. and now they dont have to worry about a mobile quarterback like kaep. i also think dalton is a very average quarterback and i cant see him outdueling rodgers. that being said, BOL if you decide on betting this game. I think the over would prob be a better choice for this game?"

And with Mike Wallace probably out I am even more excited for this one. Yeah obviously the 9ers are a good bit better than the Bengals, in fact if you read my rankings before the year I had 9ers at 1 and Bengals at 8. Nonetheless it is a similar matchup. Also I don't need the luck cause like I said I am staying away from it. I would not however be shocked to see the Bengals take it. And it really depends on what the over is. o49 I would probably just pass.
Edit: Wow that's really funny just checked and the over is exactly 49!!
 
Tractor said in his interviews that he has more cardio than ever and that he's faster, said the cut went fine. I think his nervousness was more about being outside of Brazil for the first time for a fight. Kimura hit some beautiful sweeps and transitions on Camus while he was on the bottom, he has high level BJJ for sure and Gagnon has a below average gastank. Wineland should be competitive for the first 2 rounds and then he'll start to fade and Barao will pour it on til he gets the sub. Barao via Sub or ITD has great value imo, Wineland has only gone 5 rounds 1 time in his career and he lost that one (to Chase Beebe).

well I hope Tractor performs good as I have a bit on him, he did look nervous.

Hazak you are correct with all the reasoning but you need to understand that all fighters develop their skills and become much better fighters in between fights (just have a look at Pettis, from losing to Guida to stopping Bendo). I guarantee you this will be the best ever Wineland and the best ever Gagnon. Bringing up past performances does not tell me much.
 
BELLATOR (just for action mainly) (lines to juiced)

Terrado $10.00 $41.50
Burley $10.00 // $31.50
Siliga $10.00 // $90.00
Marx $160.00 // $100.00

WM/Anderson ov 1.5 $50.00 // $67.50

WM + Lima $65.00 // $54.91

HM Parlay:

Lima +Melo + Hawn + Weedman + War Machine + Starks + Marx + Escudero $15 // $174.33
 
Last edited:
Do you guys think that Menjivar will be affected by the cut at all ? he usually has a good gas tank , i have a lot riding on him
 
Do you guys think that Menjivar will be affected by the cut at all ? he usually has a good gas tank , i have a lot riding on him

nah not really. I would not put "a lot" on overvalued home favorites like Makdessi or Menjivar. Not that its necessarily a bad bet but you are not getting proper value as they are fighting at home.
 
well I hope Tractor performs good as I have a bit on him, he did look nervous.

Hazak you are correct with all the reasoning but you need to understand that all fighters develop their skills and become much better fighters in between fights (just have a look at Pettis, from losing to Guida to stopping Bendo). I guarantee you this will be the best ever Wineland and the best ever Gagnon. Bringing up past performances does not tell me much.

Wineland is limited by the fact that he still has a demanding fulltime job that takes loads of his time and while he can match Barao in the striking department he has very little options in this fight. He is obviously better than he's ever been before skillwise but i really don't think he's in 5 round shape. He's faded plenty of times vs much lesser opponents in the third rounds of his fights. Sometimes things like lack of cardio and poor chins follow fighters through their whole careers and they can't do much about it.

In Gagnon's case he does have a chance to win this fight, in fact i'd probably call it more of a coinflip than i'd do with Mitrione-Schaub. He has more powerful takedowns and better hands but he'll need improved cardio tomorrow if the fight goes past the midway point.

I'm sure Pettis has improved boatloads since facing Guida but i think that loss was due to jitters more than anything. Or if not jitters he just took the wrong approach in the heat of the moment which can happen to debuting fighters in the UFC. Pettis was already way better than Guida back then.
 
Do you guys think that Menjivar will be affected by the cut at all ? he usually has a good gas tank , i have a lot riding on him

I don't think he will win or lose this fight because of his gas tank. Menjivar's problem is that he fights to the level of his opponents and underperforms (often due to the fact that he's too reluctant to engage). He has to be aggressive if he wants the win here, Reis imo is the better grappler here so Menjivar needs to pick his shots and keep this on the feet. Reis has some good wins on his record and his losses are against guys who are arguably better than Menjivar. I'm gonna skip betting on this fight apart from going small on a prop or 2. I really think the guy who wants it more tomorrow will win here.
 
Weigh ins thoughts:
------------------

Caceres seriously looked high like as if he just smoked pot before getting on stage, he seriously looked out of it lol. All that talk he's been talking about retiring in the next few years says that he's probably lacking motivation. Prazeres looks mad strong at 155. Kimura looked way better than in his first fight (but that was on short notice so yea) but Gagnon looked pretty good too. Kimura bigger than i expected. Thompson looks much bigger than i expected compared to Clements too, not to mention he looks to be in better shape than for his other UFC fights. Khabib is easily the biggest dude Healy has faced since dropping to LW. IMO Philippou looks better than he's been before.

My mental notes of the Weigh ins:

Jones vs. Gustafsson: Whoa Gus looks better than ever! JBJ a freak of nature.
Barao vs. Wineland : EW so big @ '35 & Barao looks great
Mitrione vs. Schaub: MH looks to be in fantastiic condiion / BS a bit soft? Normal?
Carmont vs. Philippou: Carmont a specimen // CP very good shape
Healy vs. Nurmagomedov // Khabib needs towel, makes weight easily) Pat HUGE @ 55 Shredded
Jury vs. Ricci // MJ impressive / Ricci a bit drawn out but to be expected.
Menjivar vs. Reis // WR shredded /Ivan comes in heavy (1 lb)
Chris Clements vs. Stephen Thompson WB solid/ CC looks quite smaller than WB
Gagnon vs. Kimura: Both equally nimpressive ut appear bfit.
Forte vs. Makdessi both solid. Makdessi looks like a LW cros eyed
Michel Prazeres vs. Jesse Ronson (Tractor soooo muc h beter @ '55. Looks strong.
Caceres vs. Delorme: BLR so lean. Looks fragile. RD a big '35er & much thicker than BLR.
Guelmino vs. Omielanczuk: DO in better condition than past fights/ Nandor fi as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top