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After failing hard on DDP vs Chimaev, I'll unleash a prediction I had done by studying in my own way Pereira vs Ankalaev and how the rematch likely goes. Below 
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev II — Round-by-Round Prediction
Stance/shape: Pereira (orthodox) vs Ankalaev (southpaw).
Core dynamic: damage moments (Pereira) vs minute-banking control (Ankalaev).
My pick: Pereira wins 48–47 (SD or UD)
Round 1 - 10 - 9 Pereira
Early outside calf kicks from Pereira target Ankalaev’s lead right leg. This time, Pereira mixes a switch left kick to the open body when Ank squares to check.
Foot battle favors Pereira (outside lead foot), opening the lane for a straight right down the center.
Ankalaev probes with the southpaw jab and tests a collar-tie clinch on the fence but can’t settle a ride.
Cleanest moments are Pereira’s right cross at range and a short left hook on the breakmgiving him the round
Round 2 - 10 - 9 Ankalaev
Ankalaev turns up pressure: jab —> collar-tie, head position, and knee-tap entries to short mat-returns. Periods of fence control with wrist rides and short left elbows score steadily, even if nothing cuts.
Pereira stands quickly but spends enough time hand-fighting on the wall for Ank to bank the round.
Round 3 - 10 - 9 Pereira
Accumulated calf kicks slow Ankalaev’s first step... entries begin a half-beat farther out. Pereira wins outside foot and lands right cross —> left hook, Ankalaev clinches to smother.
Poatan keeps the initiative with another outside calf and a switch left to the open side of the body. Damage is visibly Pereira’s, with control being minimal for Ank here.
Round 4 - 10 - 9 Ankalaev
Veteran, low-risk control from Ankalaev: overhook turns to the fence, knees to the thigh/calf, a brief half-guard with cross-face “pitter” elbows.
Pereira posts and stands but is contained for long stretches... not much lands clean for either man, yet Ankalaev owns the minutes.
Round 5 - 10 - Pereira (swing)
Ankalaev tries to replay the fence cycle, Pereira smartly hand-fights earlier, circles to the outside foot, and resets in space.
Then, the pivotal moment: Pereira threads a clean straight right as Ankalaev shifts through stance to enter... Ank immediately clinches almost reactively
Ankalaev manages a late body-lock that eats clock but produces little offense. Pereira fights underhooks and frames him off, adding a hard low kick and a short right hook on separation.
Damage vs brief control, Pereira edges the frame.
Scorecards
Judge A: 48–47 Pereira (R1, R3, R5)
Judge B: 48–47 Pereira (R1, R3, R5)
Judge C: 48–47 Ankalaev (R2, R4, R5)
Winner : Pereira 48 - 47 Ankalaev (SD)
After 5 rounds, the judges call the contest... The winner, by split decision... And new, Alex Poatan Pereira!!!
Ankalaev still wins his rounds the same way (R2/R4: fence pins, knee-taps, short rides, power strikes).
But Pereira wins the fight by winning the moments — right-hand lanes in open stance, left hook on exits, and steady calf/body work that blunts the entries especially in R1, R3, and the swing R5.
My reasoning :
At 313, Pereira’s “freeze” came partially from uncertainty about Ankalaev’s takedown chains IMO (ofc Ank is elite so he's tough as anyone can be). Once you’ve databanked a fight where you stuff the vast majority of shots (including the R4 chain), your posterior on your own TDD rises, and your risk budget shifts. That unlocks the Poatan we usually see: earlier pressure, freer kicking, and cleaner pocket exits, without gifting long fence rides and being too much on the back foot.
That can lead to entry denial getting earlier. Instead of accepting the first collar tie, he hand-fights before the pin (thumb strip, inside bicep post), circles to the outside foot vs southpaw, and forces resets. That alone trims Ank’s “bankable minutes.” Kick menu widens, too... More outside calf (southpaw lead leg), plus switch left to the open side (liver) when Ank squares to check. With the TD fear dialed down more, these show up in R1 and R3 more incisively IMO
Breaks become offense... When Ank releases head position, Pereira is ready to fire left hook on the exit, which is his safest, highest-return shot in this matchup to me in moments like this.
Shot traps get sharper, too... Imo he'd feint level, make Ank step into a lane, and punish with right cross —> left hook. We saw the seed of this in R5... in a rematch he trusts it earlier imo
Fence math improves with whizzer —> hip turn, crossface, wrist peel — then kick immediately on the re-separation. That can stop Ank from re-pinning and flips optics from control to damage.
Put together, IMO we get the same backbone (Ankalaev still wins convincingly in 2 and 4), but the moment rounds (1, 3, 5) tilt harder to Pereira because he’s no longer budgeting so much caution for the unknown TD threat. Judges score effective damage first, so one clean right cross or hook on the break outweighs 30 ~ 40 seconds of low-offense clinch... Which I think the real 5 shows already the blueprint for me to pick on this for the rematch.
Tough fight for sure but I think it's chama time again. Let's not forget who Pereira is:
He needs to win this though... To get closer to facing Tom or JJ. I think he gets it like I described above... Ofc the fight is anyone's guess, that's just based off the first fight and thus, what I believe as more likely...
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev II — Round-by-Round Prediction
Stance/shape: Pereira (orthodox) vs Ankalaev (southpaw).
Core dynamic: damage moments (Pereira) vs minute-banking control (Ankalaev).
My pick: Pereira wins 48–47 (SD or UD)
Round 1 - 10 - 9 Pereira
Early outside calf kicks from Pereira target Ankalaev’s lead right leg. This time, Pereira mixes a switch left kick to the open body when Ank squares to check.
Foot battle favors Pereira (outside lead foot), opening the lane for a straight right down the center.
Ankalaev probes with the southpaw jab and tests a collar-tie clinch on the fence but can’t settle a ride.
Cleanest moments are Pereira’s right cross at range and a short left hook on the breakmgiving him the round
Round 2 - 10 - 9 Ankalaev
Ankalaev turns up pressure: jab —> collar-tie, head position, and knee-tap entries to short mat-returns. Periods of fence control with wrist rides and short left elbows score steadily, even if nothing cuts.
Pereira stands quickly but spends enough time hand-fighting on the wall for Ank to bank the round.
Round 3 - 10 - 9 Pereira
Accumulated calf kicks slow Ankalaev’s first step... entries begin a half-beat farther out. Pereira wins outside foot and lands right cross —> left hook, Ankalaev clinches to smother.
Poatan keeps the initiative with another outside calf and a switch left to the open side of the body. Damage is visibly Pereira’s, with control being minimal for Ank here.
Round 4 - 10 - 9 Ankalaev
Veteran, low-risk control from Ankalaev: overhook turns to the fence, knees to the thigh/calf, a brief half-guard with cross-face “pitter” elbows.
Pereira posts and stands but is contained for long stretches... not much lands clean for either man, yet Ankalaev owns the minutes.
Round 5 - 10 - Pereira (swing)
Ankalaev tries to replay the fence cycle, Pereira smartly hand-fights earlier, circles to the outside foot, and resets in space.
Then, the pivotal moment: Pereira threads a clean straight right as Ankalaev shifts through stance to enter... Ank immediately clinches almost reactively
Ankalaev manages a late body-lock that eats clock but produces little offense. Pereira fights underhooks and frames him off, adding a hard low kick and a short right hook on separation.
Damage vs brief control, Pereira edges the frame.
Scorecards
Judge A: 48–47 Pereira (R1, R3, R5)
Judge B: 48–47 Pereira (R1, R3, R5)
Judge C: 48–47 Ankalaev (R2, R4, R5)
Winner : Pereira 48 - 47 Ankalaev (SD)
After 5 rounds, the judges call the contest... The winner, by split decision... And new, Alex Poatan Pereira!!!
Ankalaev still wins his rounds the same way (R2/R4: fence pins, knee-taps, short rides, power strikes).
But Pereira wins the fight by winning the moments — right-hand lanes in open stance, left hook on exits, and steady calf/body work that blunts the entries especially in R1, R3, and the swing R5.
My reasoning :
At 313, Pereira’s “freeze” came partially from uncertainty about Ankalaev’s takedown chains IMO (ofc Ank is elite so he's tough as anyone can be). Once you’ve databanked a fight where you stuff the vast majority of shots (including the R4 chain), your posterior on your own TDD rises, and your risk budget shifts. That unlocks the Poatan we usually see: earlier pressure, freer kicking, and cleaner pocket exits, without gifting long fence rides and being too much on the back foot.
That can lead to entry denial getting earlier. Instead of accepting the first collar tie, he hand-fights before the pin (thumb strip, inside bicep post), circles to the outside foot vs southpaw, and forces resets. That alone trims Ank’s “bankable minutes.” Kick menu widens, too... More outside calf (southpaw lead leg), plus switch left to the open side (liver) when Ank squares to check. With the TD fear dialed down more, these show up in R1 and R3 more incisively IMO
Breaks become offense... When Ank releases head position, Pereira is ready to fire left hook on the exit, which is his safest, highest-return shot in this matchup to me in moments like this.
Shot traps get sharper, too... Imo he'd feint level, make Ank step into a lane, and punish with right cross —> left hook. We saw the seed of this in R5... in a rematch he trusts it earlier imo
Fence math improves with whizzer —> hip turn, crossface, wrist peel — then kick immediately on the re-separation. That can stop Ank from re-pinning and flips optics from control to damage.
Put together, IMO we get the same backbone (Ankalaev still wins convincingly in 2 and 4), but the moment rounds (1, 3, 5) tilt harder to Pereira because he’s no longer budgeting so much caution for the unknown TD threat. Judges score effective damage first, so one clean right cross or hook on the break outweighs 30 ~ 40 seconds of low-offense clinch... Which I think the real 5 shows already the blueprint for me to pick on this for the rematch.
Tough fight for sure but I think it's chama time again. Let's not forget who Pereira is:
He needs to win this though... To get closer to facing Tom or JJ. I think he gets it like I described above... Ofc the fight is anyone's guess, that's just based off the first fight and thus, what I believe as more likely...
