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Alright, the great Luffy will bless you all with his analysis and visualization skills by sharing my take on how DDP vs Khamzat like goes. I've rewatched their fights already, locked in significant strikes landed per minute, patterns, cardio shown, level of competition... And despite the odds backing the Borz, I think DDP may show why he's one of the best fighters right now. His striking looks awkward but he's a genius. It doesn't seem too technical but it works very well for him — offense and defense. And it's not like his defense is poor, he uses his varied entries to confuse opponents and to defend by attacking. You see that he has a tendency not to let the opponent get a shot in without retaliating immediately, but he does that vs great strikers like against Izzy...
Numbers that matter from their last 5 fights (I won't pick on all their fights otherwise it's a headache) : Dricus lands ~6 sig. Strikes a minute (4th best rate in MW history) and he doesn't fade late. Khamzat's pattern is hell for 5 minutes, then human. Dricus is awkward but doesn't fade specially post nose surgery, and he'll also wrestle if it buys him minutes (6/11 TDs vs Strickland I when DDP was still improving)
My take : DDP beats Chimaev UD (4-1) — 49 - 46 ... Chimaev has a path by an early sub if DDP falters, but unlikely imo as Usman didn't and DDP is tougher than Usman, shown also by the way he body locked Whittaker when he was taken down. Whittaker said he felt a tremendous pressure in the body lock when he took DDP down, adding up to DDP's huge strength. Whittaker and Sean also said they believe DDP wins (Whittaker's opinion matters as having fought both)
Let's visualize the likeliest scenario, which I'll put into writing.
Round 1
The bell tolls!! Chimaev shoots off the first jab and dumps DDP inside the first minute — like vs Usman. He rides half-guard, floats to the back, cranks the face a bit (think the Whittaker finish, just no tap), and keeps Dricus hand-fighting instead of building a base. DDP stands twice but gets mat-returned again like The Wolf generally does. Damage stays light like Usman managed to minimize but the control is heavy. Maybe a 10-8 or 10-9 because I think DDP would escape too much, but a clear domination.
(10-9 Chimaev)
Round 2
Shot's speed from the Borz is already down a note and Dricus starts to stab the body and chop the legs — exactly what he leaned on vs Strickland 2/Izzy when he found his rythm. Clean sprawl mid round, he pummels to doubles, shucks off, cracks a right on exit. He scrambles off a lazy single ending with DDP on top for the first time!! (He said he'd wrestle Khamzat), and DDP drops short elbows. Momentum shifts with Khamzat getting up being being outdone clearly, 10-9 Du Plessis
(10-9 Dricus)
Round 3
Now it looks like Chimaev vs Usman R2-3 again — burts from Khamzat, then breathing. Dricus starts to walk him down, mixing knees in the clinch (Strickland II like template), keg kicks, looping rights. Khamzat goes for a double but is telegraphed, turning into DDP riding half-guard again and landing elbows — he is not just defending, he's stealing grappling minutes, which he does to break Khamzat down psychologically by offering no path.
(10-9 DDP)
Round 4
Khamzat goes for a desperation single, gets stuffed, DDP circles to the back, wrist rides, opens a cut and visible swelling with hammerfists (I think there's a higher chance of a stopppahe here than a round 1 avalanche win for Khamzat). But mostly likely, Khamzat gets back up since he's tough and has a huge heart too. Still, DDP pressures is relentless, and he digs the body. Khamzat clips him once and gets some solid hooks, but in the clinch, DDP explores Khamzat's dipping gas tank and lands knees and ends up with big looping hooks that hurts Khamzat visibly.
(10-9 DDP)
Round 5
Both tired but Dricus' tank holds as he's been there, Khamzat's TD shots are single entries that stall on the fence. DDP knees ribs/thighs, peels off with overhands, sprawls the last TD, spins behind and rides it out with punishing strikes, finishing dominantly.
(10-9 DDP)
49-46 for DDP (second likely to me would be a ~4th round TKO by Dricus, less likely but possible, round 1 finish by Khamzat)
My prediction— "after 5 rounds, all judges score the contest — 49-46 — for the winner, by UD... and Still!!! Dricus Stillknocks Du Plessis!!!! "
Numbers that matter from their last 5 fights (I won't pick on all their fights otherwise it's a headache) : Dricus lands ~6 sig. Strikes a minute (4th best rate in MW history) and he doesn't fade late. Khamzat's pattern is hell for 5 minutes, then human. Dricus is awkward but doesn't fade specially post nose surgery, and he'll also wrestle if it buys him minutes (6/11 TDs vs Strickland I when DDP was still improving)
My take : DDP beats Chimaev UD (4-1) — 49 - 46 ... Chimaev has a path by an early sub if DDP falters, but unlikely imo as Usman didn't and DDP is tougher than Usman, shown also by the way he body locked Whittaker when he was taken down. Whittaker said he felt a tremendous pressure in the body lock when he took DDP down, adding up to DDP's huge strength. Whittaker and Sean also said they believe DDP wins (Whittaker's opinion matters as having fought both)
Let's visualize the likeliest scenario, which I'll put into writing.
Round 1
The bell tolls!! Chimaev shoots off the first jab and dumps DDP inside the first minute — like vs Usman. He rides half-guard, floats to the back, cranks the face a bit (think the Whittaker finish, just no tap), and keeps Dricus hand-fighting instead of building a base. DDP stands twice but gets mat-returned again like The Wolf generally does. Damage stays light like Usman managed to minimize but the control is heavy. Maybe a 10-8 or 10-9 because I think DDP would escape too much, but a clear domination.
(10-9 Chimaev)
Round 2
Shot's speed from the Borz is already down a note and Dricus starts to stab the body and chop the legs — exactly what he leaned on vs Strickland 2/Izzy when he found his rythm. Clean sprawl mid round, he pummels to doubles, shucks off, cracks a right on exit. He scrambles off a lazy single ending with DDP on top for the first time!! (He said he'd wrestle Khamzat), and DDP drops short elbows. Momentum shifts with Khamzat getting up being being outdone clearly, 10-9 Du Plessis
(10-9 Dricus)
Round 3
Now it looks like Chimaev vs Usman R2-3 again — burts from Khamzat, then breathing. Dricus starts to walk him down, mixing knees in the clinch (Strickland II like template), keg kicks, looping rights. Khamzat goes for a double but is telegraphed, turning into DDP riding half-guard again and landing elbows — he is not just defending, he's stealing grappling minutes, which he does to break Khamzat down psychologically by offering no path.
(10-9 DDP)
Round 4
Khamzat goes for a desperation single, gets stuffed, DDP circles to the back, wrist rides, opens a cut and visible swelling with hammerfists (I think there's a higher chance of a stopppahe here than a round 1 avalanche win for Khamzat). But mostly likely, Khamzat gets back up since he's tough and has a huge heart too. Still, DDP pressures is relentless, and he digs the body. Khamzat clips him once and gets some solid hooks, but in the clinch, DDP explores Khamzat's dipping gas tank and lands knees and ends up with big looping hooks that hurts Khamzat visibly.
(10-9 DDP)
Round 5
Both tired but Dricus' tank holds as he's been there, Khamzat's TD shots are single entries that stall on the fence. DDP knees ribs/thighs, peels off with overhands, sprawls the last TD, spins behind and rides it out with punishing strikes, finishing dominantly.
(10-9 DDP)
49-46 for DDP (second likely to me would be a ~4th round TKO by Dricus, less likely but possible, round 1 finish by Khamzat)
My prediction— "after 5 rounds, all judges score the contest — 49-46 — for the winner, by UD... and Still!!! Dricus Stillknocks Du Plessis!!!! "
and then just NumPy for random draws, pandas to hold the fighter stats, SciPy’s beta/poisson stuff for rates, and a little of a logistic head to turn feature deltas into win probabilities. 
lollol
