My next 3 fights prediction

Luffy said:
You are. Tom isn't a match for Pereira. Only Ank and JJ can beat him and that's a maybe. Both are 50/50 with Pereira. Pereira vs Tom imo is a 4-1 or a late round TKO. Tom can't handle the ability Pereira has shown thus far unless he waits for Pereira to be 42 yo
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Tom would/will be favored over them all, and with good reason. A small favorite over Jones due to name recognition, a huge favorite over Pereira or Ank. That's just reality as it stands now.

Unless he loses to Gane in which case things would be viewed very differently.
 
What was your last round by round fight prediction and how did that go?
 
mkess101 said:
Tom would/will be favored over them all, and with good reason. A small favorite over Jones due to name recognition, a huge favorite over Pereira or Ank. That's just reality as it stands now.

Unless he loses to Gane in which case things would be viewed very differently.
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He'd lose to Alex. Jiri, a complete fighter who destroyed Reyes (who was ~ JJ by then) lost to Pereira twice.

IMG_20250821_224409.jpg
 
Captain Herb said:
What was your last round by round fight prediction and how did that go?
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I predicted Pereira would have a hard time vs Jiri in the first time. Post the second fight vs Jiri, I predicted Pereira would win by 3rd round TKO vs Rountree. It was 4. I predicted Pereira vs Ank could go either way, it'd be a 50/50 and could go 3-2 either way. It indeed was very close and Ank won the first. I thought JJ would submit Stipe in round 3 (turns out it was a TKO). I thought JJ would sub Gane in round 2 (turned out it was round 1).

I thought Topuria would KO Max in round 4 (turned out to be round 3). I thought DDP would beat Adesanya in round 5 (turned out to be round 4, even tho I was really rooting for Izzy). I thought Topuria would TKO Charles in round 2 (was quicker than I'd thought). I thought Jiri would TKO Hill before it went to the distance (turned out to be true). I thought Islam would finish Moicano in round 1... Guessed right. I thought Chimaev would finish Rob in round 1, which happened. I thought Chimaev would beat Usman by UD — it was MD. I thought DDP would win 4-1 vs Sean second fight — turned out to be 5-0 I think. I thought DDP would beat Whittaker by UD despite him being a massive underdog... Turned out it was way easier than I'd thought. I also thought Topuria would KO Volk in round 4 (turned out to be round 2)

The Khamzat vs DDP I got wrong. I thought Pereira would beat Izzy again in the rematch, was wrong. I thought Tom would beat Sergei easily (didn't know how quick tho) despite the odds being even. Turned out to be true...
 
mkess101 said:
You're delusional but that's okay. You're good natured about it.
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I'm not. We will never know until they fight tho. Maybe I'm wrong but this one I'm way more sure than the DDP vs Chima
 
I bet @mkess101 gets 30% of the outcomes right, he likely bet $ on DDP but is pretending he did not 😂 😂 😂 😂
 
Luffy said:
I bet @mkess101 gets 30% of the outcomes right, he likely bet $ on DDP but is pretending he did not 😂 😂 😂 😂
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Luff, now you're gonna just make stuff up? This has become sad. I literally posted BEFORE the fight in numerous threads here that I had $ on Khamzat.

Don't do this to yourself my guy, it's pathetic. You don't need to humiliate yourself like this.
 
mkess101 said:
Luff, now you're gonna just make stuff up? This has become sad. I literally posted BEFORE the fight in numerous threads here that I had $ on Khamzat.

Don't do this to yourself my guy, it's pathetic. You don't need to humiliate yourself like this.
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You also put $ on Stipe to beat JJ and on Moicano to beat Islam, I bet 🤣 🤣 🤣
 
Luffy said:
You also put $ on Stipe to beat JJ and on Moicano to beat Islam, I bet 🤣 🤣 🤣
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Okay so you've decided to just go off the rails and be a complete moron. Go to bed, try again tomorrow. It's not your day, bud.
 
Luffy said:
Calm down bro I'm messing with you
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I'm totally calm. This just wasn't your best effort. But tomorrow is another day.😃
 
Luffy said:
Next, Alex Pereira, at heavyweight physique, (~245 lbs, lean, same speed as his LHW but more durable and tougher, as he has shown it's his natural weight) stepping in with Tom Aspinall (~255 lbs on fight night).

Tom Aspinall vs Alex Pereira

My prediction

Round 1

Aspinall doesn't waste time circling light, probing with quick jabs and feints level changes. Pereira stands tall, stalking, hands high. Alex lands the inside low kick, drawing a flinch. Aspinall answers with a 1-2, catching Alex clean once, but Pereira as the striking master, stays composed and fires back with a left hook to the body. Mid round, Aspinall shoots low on a kick. Pereira sprawls, posts and frames off, escaping clean as proven by his very good grappling vs Ankalaev. In the closing minute, Pereira starts finding the rythm — jab, calf kick, jab again. Aspinall manages to sneak in a right hand upstairs but the leg is already hurt.

10 - 9 Pereira

Round 2

Aspinall tries to pressure more and forces exchanges. He doubles the jab and hits a clean right right that forces Pereira to reset. Tom uses the cage to trap Alex, briefly clinching, looking for a trip. Pereira is sturdy with no weight cut, frames off and land a sneaky right cross on the exit. Tom presses again, but Pereira lands a nasty left hook as Tom's entering tall. Tom absorbs it but slows down. Alex targets the body with kicks — front and side kicks that thuds loud. Aspinall rallies later with a big right cross and a short flurry at the fence. Tom edges volume but Pereira lands the sharper and heavier strikes, edging on impact.

10-9 Pereira (20-18 Pereira)

Round 3

Aspinall, aware he's down, shoots a deeper double off a jab. Pereira defends well the first, but Tom chains to a body lock and drags him down briefly into half guard. He hold position landing steady ground shots, but not devastating ones. Pereira posts (like vs Jiri first fight) and works back to his feet with a whizzer, eating knees on the way. Once standing, Alex goes back to the calf kick but Tom is now mixing stances to protect it. Tom manages to land a right hand that staggers Alex momentarily, but Alex lessens the impact by rolling with the punch and clinching briefly.

10-9 Aspinall (29-28 Pereira)

Round 4

Tom is already breathing heavier. Pereira reasserts his jab-low kick rythm now adding the high kick threat. Mid round, he fakes the jab and connects a left hook upstairs that wobbles Tom, forcing him to clinch desperately. Alex punishes with knees and short uppercuts. Tom hangs on, survives, but looks hurt. Alex stalks, patient, landing another calf kick that hobble Aspinall's lead leg and adds a jab as Tom briefly changes levels, wobbling Tom, who survives the bell. Almost stoppage.

10-9 Pereira (39 - 37 Pereira)

Round 5

Aspinall knows he needs a finish. He comes out aggressive, winging combinations. Pereira shells, rides the storm, then punishes with body work — right kick under the elbow, jab, left hook upstairs. Tom bites down and desperately shoots again, but his leg is too compromised to drive through. Alex sprawls, shoves him off, and lands a brutal right cross on the break. Both swing at the end but Alex still lands the cleaner shots and ends the fight marching forwards behind the jab with Tom retreating.

10-9 Pereira (49-46 Pereira)


After five rounds, Alex Pereira defeats Tom Aspinall by UD, Alex Pereira 49 - 46 Tom Aspinall


IMO Pereira's low kick game and body work slow Tom's trademark bounce and entry speed. Aspinall has success with some ground control and some heavy strikes, but over 25 minutes, Pereira's sharper, heavier strikes from being the best striker, and his proven grappling development along the years hold up in a dangerous but dominant win to me. Pereira's defensive anti wrestling has evolved a lot, having the best TDD in LHW, and training in high intensity with 260 lbs pro wrestlers in the sands recently. Plus, he's one of the best in the world at reading rythm and punishing defensive gaps from speedy chaotic straight liners strikers.

The calf kick at HW, with Pereira having a lean natural 245 lbs would imo compromise Tom's already not strong leg, which he depends on for quick entries, slowing him down significantly, like Rountree not being able to keep the same huge speed after the calf kick was paying dividends and the body and head strikes were adding up — something which would likely be even more damaging for a bigger guy who depends a lot on his lead leg for explosive entries IMO
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Q. What is the weather like on your Planet?
 
Doughie99 said:
Q. What is the weather like on your Planet?
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I've changed my assessment. I've tape studied more and got to a new outcome... Be tuned! It's planet wisdom, I'm glad to share it with you all


Hypothetical Fight!!!!​

Alex Pereira (244 lbs) vs Tom Aspinall (~250 lbs) —> HW title bout
Assumption: Baseline health

Pre-Fight Technical Context​

Alex Pereira
  • Walks in lean but filled out at ~244 lbs
  • LHW elite top fighter, known for elite timing, pressure-read striking, and defensive hips. Wants to move up for the third belt and to fight Jon Jones in the final super fight
  • Kick engine (leg/body), elite counter setups, elite fight IQ
  • Defended 12 takedowns against Ankalaev, outclassed Jan Blackowski, defeated Hill, Jiri (twice), Rountree, close loss to Ankalaev... Had beaten Adesanya and Sean Strickland, besting 5 world champions and being a champ champ in only 12 MMA fights. That showcases quick improvement even at an "older" age ... Is still improving and at his peak
  • Low guard, sniper left hook, effective pull-counters, and excellent octagon position awareness
  • Now training full time with elite wrestlers, drilling for 20 minutes and wrestling 265 lbs Senegalese wrestler in the sands... A conditioning that's up to par with an elite 30 yo athlete
Tom Aspinall
  • HW champion, extremely fast starter — average fight length ~ 2 minutes
  • High level athleticism, fluid movement, sharp entries from range or off jabs... Good feints, fast hands
  • Fight-ending ground game (G&P or subs), especially from top (however not an elite grappler, not on the level of an Ankalaev or Jon Jones, much less Chimaev)
  • Good single and double-legs, but rides instead of holding prolonged top control
  • Never tested after Round 2, never went to a decision, so tends to fade if damage accumulates or kicks disrupt base... Has never been past round 2 and when he had been close to, he had a loss. Improved a lot since then but cardio is untested as he has never won a decision or went to a decision. Good at ground game but not a wrestler like Ankalaev or Jon Jones... He's better at ground defense.
  • Slight historical vulnerability to southpaw low-kick rhythm (see Volkov and Curtis)

Round-by-Round Breakdown​


Round 1: Distance Management vs Speed Entries​

Pereira opens with slow rhythm-setting: body kicks, probing jabs, sharp calf kicks. Aspinall moves light on his feet, shifting stances, testing rear-hand entries. Pereira already targeting the lead leg — fast but measured kicks below the knee.


Mid-round mark: Aspinall times a rear-hand-jab combo to clinch —> brief cage ride —> knee tap fails. Poatan posts and escapes. Stone cold face. Eyes locked. Calm. Aspinall lands a few glancing shots but no damage, as Pereira rolls with the strikes to minimize impact... Pereira clips him once on the break.

Edge: Aspinall by a small margin due to pressure and brief tskedown, but it's a close round, dangerous territory for both fighters as they're KO artists/can finish fighters in a blink

(10-9 Aspinall)

Round 2: Escalation and Tactical Adjustments​


Aspinall pressures more aggressively — goes for a duck-under double —> gets stuffed by a jab used to stop level changes (see Jiri Prochazka second fight).

Pereira, then, lands a hard outside low kick that forces Aspinall to switch stance briefly. Poatan now starts working the body —> throwing teep + rear leg roundhouse.

At mid round, Pereira switches southpaw (strategically benefiting) and a lead right hook, left cross combo wobbles Aspinall — crowd roars!!! Tom clinches and lands short elbows, recovers positionally, but clearly felt it.

End of round: Aspinall breathing a bit heavier, nose bloodied.
Pereira round (10–9). Clean, damaging shots + low kick effectiveness.

(19-19 overall)


Round 3: Turning Point — Fatigue settles in ​


Aspinall shoots early. Single leg —> transitions to back ride, Pereira stays calm. More quickly than Jan, walls up. Poatan denies back exposure, turns into Tom with a strong whizzer + wrist control. Pereira escapes, circles off, lands a vicious left hook to body + right straight upstairs.

Aspinall is forced to reset, bounce slower now, and begins biting on feints. Poatan attacks with a head kick that partially lands — Tom backs off. At the last seconds, Pereira lands a clean counter jab while moving backward — Aspinall is now tentative.

Damage visible. Pereira takes control

Scoring : (Aspinall 28 - 29 Poatan)


Round 4: Methodical Breakdown​



Aspinall’s movement now flat-footed... he covers up as Pereira walks forward with authority. Poatan kicks return as outside + inside + switch kick to body. Aspinall absorbs but is visibly slowed.

Tom attempts a desperation entry — Pereira frames off and punishes with a knee. At the last minute round mark, a counter left hook when Tom resets crashes onto Aspinall’s temple — clean knockdown.

Ref doesn’t wave it, Aspinall turtles up, eats 3 elbows before tying up the legs (like Jiri first fight). Aspinall manages to get up but is hurt. Poatan doesn’t overextend and backs up as the horn sounds.
10–8 round possible due to knockdown + sustained damage.

(Aspinall 36 - 39 Poatan)

Round 5: The Finishing Sequence!!​


Aspinall still game. Even tired and hurt, he shows heart, goes for a level change — Pereira sprawls and responds with a brutal knee to the chest. Aspinall backs off to the fence. Pereira closes distance behind feints. At mid round, a brutal body kick folds Aspinall slightly... he tries a jab to recover, but gets caught…

... BOOM a walk-off left hook counter (Jiri 2 like again) lands clean on the chin. Aspinall drops hard. Poatan looks at the referee who still doesn't stop. He follows up with 2 hammerfists, lights out, ref stops. Crowd erupts. Pereira does the 3 signal (champ champ champ) !!


Final Result (my opinion)​


Alex Pereira defeats Tom Aspinall via KO in the 5th round!!

A left hook counter after systematic leg/body damage and developed grappling, never allowing Tom to get on with it.

​

Reasoning:
Aspinall has struggled a little when his entries were disrupted by low/body kicks even though it's off small samples, which gives Pereira an edge. Pereira denied 12 TDs vs Ankalaev, defended Jiri's attempt in the second fight, showing massive improvement in grappling. When he was worse in wrestling, Pereira was still good enough to defend well when Jan Blachowicz and Jiri (1st fight) took him down (and he was still evolving his grappling, being a shy of what it is nowadays). Showcases physically strong + clean hip escapes.

Damage vs Control... when taken down or clinched briefly, Pereira taxes energy and damages each break — visible damage is taxing for HWs. As for fight IQ and patience, Pereira rarely wastes energy... He sets traps over time, punishes mistakes with perfect timing.

Gas tank under pressure : Aspinall (early only) Round 1–2 were his best window. But after R3, fatigue + damage leads to diminished speed imo and exposes him to counter-strikes. The calf kick and KO power transfers to HW even more... Pereira already KO’d ~225 lbs fighters (Hill, Jiri, Rountree) while fighting at ~230lbs. At 244 lbs, Poatan’s shots land with heavyweight force, his kicks are more damaging and transfer over in a way Aspinall has never felt.

Verdict​


Most likely scenario IMO
Pereira TKO/KO in Round 4 or 5
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New Model for Tom vs Jones... I've rewatched the Miocic and Gane's fight, as well as Tom vs Sergei and Blaydes + Sergei's and Blaydes' many fights


Tom Aspinall vs Jon Jones


Round 1 - Ride the Lightning

Tom Aspinall immediately let his hands go. He lands a sharp jab, then surprises with a fast right cross that stings Jones early. The crowd is electric ⚡

Jones, never rattled, absorbs the blow and starts feeling out the range, extending his left hand to gauge Tom’s movement and throwing front kicks to the body. He throws his signature oblique kick and another quick kick to the midsection, slowing Tom just a touch. Tom answers with a heavy leg kick and pressures in, but Jones uses his reach, parrying shots and moving well along the cage.

Midway through, Aspinall tries to blitz, lunging in with a flurry. Jones times it like vs Gane and clinches up. Tom, unlike Gane, isn't dragged down, so T\they tussle against the fence, elbows flying in close, both fighters landing short shots. As the round winds down, Jones sneaks in a quick takedown, but Aspinall pops right back up.

Score: 10–9 Aspinall (early aggression wins it, but Jones already showing his composure).


Round 2 — JJ's KiTone IQ dialed in

Jones comes out working on laboring Aspinall’s lead leg with inside and outside leg kicks, using more front kicks, forcing Tom to reset his attacks. Aspinall pushes forward, lands a stiff jab, but now Jones is reading him, firing quick counters and threatening with spinning kicks to the body.

About two minutes in, Jones catches a kick and forces Tom into the fence. He leans his weight, landing knees to the thigh and short elbows inside. Aspinall breaks free, lands a glancing uppercut, but Jones circles away — never staying in one spot for long.

Aspinall tries to press, but Jones lands a slick left hook from, then another oblique kick. Tom's leg isn't the same already. Jones starts taking control, slowing the pace and landing the cleaner shots as the round ends.

Score: 10–9 Jones (now all even at 19–19).


Round 3 : Toughness

Both have felt each other’s power. Aspinall comes forward, but now his footwork is a bit slower. Jones is in rhythm snapping his jab to control range, trowing varied kicked to the leg and body, and making Tom chase him (see Gustafson 2 fight)

Suddenly, Tom lands a looping right that gets Jones’ attention! Jones responds instantly, not allowing Tom to get on combos by clinching and tripping Tom to the mat. He lands in half guard, working patiently with elbows and body shots to sap Tom's energy. Aspinall works his way to the fence and eventually stands, but not before eating several clean shots.

Back on the feet, Tom looks for the big one, but his output has dipped, and Jones is picking him off at range, frustrating him, making him work for every inch while he controls the range, clinching when it's needed and landing knees on breaks.

Score: 10–9 Jones (now up 29–28).


Round 4 : Hardware

The damage shows. Aspinall’s left leg is reddened, and he’s breathing heavier. Jones senses his moment, turning up the intensity by landing a spinning back kick to the body and working the jab relentlessly to set range and damage Tom, making Tom rush in.

Jones clinches after a Tom rush and lands a series of nasty elbows and knees. Aspinall, showing toughness, fires back but just can’t find his range. Jones controls the position, trips him to the ground, and pours on heavy g&p — 12-6 elbows, hammerfists. Crowds roaring and sensing the end.

Aspinall barely makes it to the end of the round, battered but unbroken.

Looks like round 1 or Jones vs Miocic

Score: 10–8 Jones (dominant, possibly a 10–8 round for damage).



Round 5 : The Inevitable 🦴


With the crowd urging Aspinall on, he digs deep, but his movement is clearly compromised and he can't do much. Jones is locked in, keeps working on the leg, framing range with his lead range now that Tom is slower (Jones is slower too ofc) then JJ shoots for a takedown, dragging Tom to the mat once more.

This time, Jones traps an arm in a crucifix position and rains down a barrage of elbows. Aspinall tries to defend, rolling and covering up, but Jones is relentless. After a prolonged elbow attack, the referee has seen enough and waves it off!!


Jon Jones wins by TKO, Round 5.



Jon Jones raises the arm and says that Tom is very durable, complimenting him for withstanding many strikes and making it his toughest HW fight


My outcome:


Jon Jones defeats Tom Aspinall by TKO, Round 5.


Tom has a dangerous start, but once Jones weathers the storm, he starts to methodically work on his game, sapping Tom's energy on the feet and on the ground, until the inevitable TKO, exploring his wrestling pedigree on an already exhausted Tom, as well as his full package diversified striking tools and pace management
 
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