My next 3 fights prediction

[VinceArch]

Well yeah for the men’s division it’s the worst in the ufc. And it’s been that way for a long time. They need a huge influx of talent in that division. But where to get it?

A good question. I'd look internationally.

 

[Luffy]

A good question. I'd look internationally.

There's Tom vs Gane. Then if Tom wins, then Tom vs JJ. If Gane wins, then... Pereira vs Gane likely as JJ vs Gane would make no sense. But I think Tom wins, fights JJ, and like I've given my opinion, JJ wins in a tough but fair win in a 3-2 (think like Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira but a little more dominant for JJ)... Then I think whoever wins between Ank and Alex Pereira, which I think Alex and btw Ank said he wouldn't go up, fights JJ... That's the most likely path.

 

[Doughie99]

So here we go... I'll show how I think some fights will go. Let's start with

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

—> Tom's second belt defense

Round 1

Gane starts circling laterally, throwing front kicks and checking range with the jab. Aspinall mirrors the rhythm early, though bouncing more and fainting with heavier intent.

Gane manages to land a couple of calf kicks, but Aspinall uses his speed to get a right hand, forcing Gane into a deeper circle movement.

Then, Tom suddenly level-changes off a feint shoots for the take down. Gane's attempt to defend fails. Aspinall passes to half guard instantly and lands elbows.

Gane manages to survive kicking Tom off using his hips, but Aspinall stacks again and ends the round on top, throwing short elbows.

—> 10-9 Aspinall


Round 2

Gane switches stances, is more hesitant. He throws a long kick, Tom reads it, steps through with a jab —> overhand that lands. Gane circles but Aspinall's cage hunts is hard here, pinning Gane against the fence. He shoots single-leg into a body lock.

Ciryl Gane tries to bounce out of that, but fails. Aspinall trips him down again and on the ground he transitions beautifully to knee on belly (like vs Volkov) landing a brutal elbow that cuts Gane. Gane tries to turtle, Tom slides a front headlock transitioning into a back ride... Gane (sadly) starts to get mauled. And is saved by the bell.

—> 10-8 Aspinall as it was sheer dominance.


Round 3

Gane's face is messed, his pace is slowed and he's biting on every feint now, being overeactive. Aspinall lands a jab, Gane retreats straight back, so Tom explodes forward into a straight line —> jab, right cross, landing clear — Gane stumbles. Aspinall clinches, trips him down again, passes to half guard and full mount... Heavy g&p, fight is stopped.


Tom Aspinall defeats Gane via TKO, (Round 3 ground and pound)



Gane weaknesses with his takedown defense remains clear... And his scrambling off the bottom, as shown vs Volkov, is not layered, with flat hips, and not solid build ups. Plus, he has a tendency to retreat in straight lines when he does retreat, which is fatal vs Tom when Gane doesn't have a very good kickboxing defense, relying more on his foot work rather than framing with his hands and cutting lines.

Heres my version :

Rd1 Aspinall takes Gane down & submits him.


Sorry my fight prediction was so long. I hope you all managed to get through it.

 

[BFoe]

Anatoliy.Malikhin

As per RDR, he will not be able to meet certain UFC standards. And no, he won't comment on that any further

Vadim Nemkov moved to HW.

 

[Knob_Halford]

Can we get your Jake Paul vs Gervonta Davis prediction next ?

 

[Doughie99]

In fact, next one will be Tom vs Jon Jones!! The fight everyone wants!! Only it won't be at the White House event, but here is the round by round!! This one I had studied a lot.


Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall (Undisputed UFC HW championship)

Round 1

Jones comes out framing, hand fighting and establishing his range with oblique kicks and jabs to the body. Aspinall presses forward more than Gane and Stipe did, fainting level changes to make Jones hesitate. About ~ 1 minute in, Tom lands a sharp 1-2 that gets Jones' attention, forcing him to angle off. Jones replies with a clinch against the fence looking for head control and short elbows. The round revolves around pace: Tom lands the more eye-catching straight punches but Jones shows his huge unparalleled toughness every fighter talks about and lands brutal kicks to the knees to slow Tom, ad well as inside elbows during the clinch. A close round but more impact for Tom Aspinall, and a better round for him, one which Jones needs to weather the storm. Think something like Reyes vs JJ round 1.

(Likely score: 10-9 Aspinall)



Round 2

Jones adjusts, landing front kicks into Tom's gut to slow his entries more and more. He circles wider which forces Tom to lunge. Tom times a low kick and tries to dump Jones to the mat, though Jones scrambles instantly against the fence. And then works on a collar-tie, shoulder pressure, short knees and those grinding oblique kicks to the thigh. Aspinall lands a couple quick combos, but JJ's pace control and sharp elbows in the clinch start to leave visible marks. Close round but it's in the process to weather the storm yet. Let's say Tom Aspinall gets it for slightly cleaner punches, though Jon Jones has slowed him down and managed to roll well (as well as clinch) with the strikes when Tom lunged

Likely score: 10-9 Tom Aspinall (20-18 Tom)

Round 3

That's the hinge. Aspinall is still bounce and fresh but Jones has been investing in the legs and body. Tom still manages to land a right cross, briefly buzzling Jon, who ties up immediately. Jones drags it to the fence and hits knees to the ribs and shoulder strikes. Aspinall starts slowing. Jones breaks the clinch and lands two hard body kicks plus a big elbow, gets the first takedown finishing on top. His best round so far.

10-9 Jones (29-28 Tom overall)


Round 4

Aspinall still presses, but Jones' experience shines... JJ starts to mix trips and mat returns, enough to make Tom post and waste energy. On the feet, Jones' jab sequence sets the distance and his elbow finds the mark, slicing Tom's eyebrow. Aspinall still lands strikes, but it's glancing, while Jones' shots are clear and thudding. Aspinall's pace is already clearly blunted by the horn

Score : 10-9 Jon Jones (38-38 overall)

Round 5

Classic Jones championship round. He keeps range, lands front kicks and whenever Tom tries to burst, Jones clinches, knees, and leans. Aspinall tries a rally with big hooks, but Jones times it with a spinning elbow and drags Tom to the mat, controlling wrists with the classic Dagestani hand cuff. Tom tries to post but Jones works on a crucifix and lands powerful elbows that makes it a clear round on control and damage, until the horn. Jones rises up with his hands raised. Tom raises his hands, proud to have put up a good and competitive fight but he likely knows he needed the last round and has come up short on this one.

Close fight but Jon Jones' IQ, toughness, timing and wrestling successfully smother the storm and control the last 3 frames decisively.

Score : 10-9 Jon Jones ( 48-47 Jon Jones)


Most likely outcome :

Jon Jones defeats Tom Aspinall by UD (48-47) !!!

JJ's durability, clinch, grappling superiority, and ability to smother bursts like few over five rounds tilts it to him. Aspinall shines early but fades under JJ's attritional game. It's a competitive fight but Jon Jones shines as the new champion regaining his trone in a 3-2 contest (4-1 in one of the judges who read round 2 to Jon Jones maybe)

Jones' proven championship pacing, toughness, range control with his octagon positioning and well timed jabs, oblique kicks, way better grappling are enough. Aspinall's speed and striking make him dangerous but Jones' ability to make fights ""ugly"" and attritional is likely the deciding factor, giving him his belt back in a tough but well earned 48-47 UD.

Double the dose.
The tablets your doctor prescribed you just aren't working.

 

[BFoe]

Double the dose.
The tablets your doctor prescribed you just aren't working.

Hey hey hey—he should contact his doctor about doubling the dose. We aren’t medical professionals here.

 

[JBJ was here]

Well yeah for the men’s division it’s the worst in the ufc. And it’s been that way for a long time. They need a huge influx of talent in that division. But where to get it?

Given that the LHW and MW divisions are thin too--though not nearly as thin as the HW division--they should probably just get rid of HW and LHW and institute a cruiserweight (225 pound) division. The number of HW's who are any good any would have a difficult cut to 225 if they actually tried to make the cut is very limited--even Ngannou weighed in as low as the upper 250s, within cutting distance of 225, and none of the heavier HWs have more lean mass than Ngannou; historically you're looking at Brock Lesner and that's pretty much it--and the smaller LHWs could drop to MW.

At least that's what would be right to do from a talent allocation standpoint. Obviously it's a non-starter given MMA history and the lingering false perception of HW and LHW as glamour divisions, but strictly in terms of putting on good fights in divisions that have a depth of contenders it would easily be the best way to deal with the heaviest UFC weight classes.

 

[Luffy]

Next, Alex Pereira, at heavyweight physique, (~245 lbs, lean, same speed as his LHW but more durable and tougher, as he has shown it's his natural weight) stepping in with Tom Aspinall (~255 lbs on fight night).

Tom Aspinall vs Alex Pereira

My prediction

Round 1

Aspinall doesn't waste time circling light, probing with quick jabs and feints level changes. Pereira stands tall, stalking, hands high. Alex lands the inside low kick, drawing a flinch. Aspinall answers with a 1-2, catching Alex clean once, but Pereira as the striking master, stays composed and fires back with a left hook to the body. Mid round, Aspinall shoots low on a kick. Pereira sprawls, posts and frames off, escaping clean as proven by his very good grappling vs Ankalaev. In the closing minute, Pereira starts finding the rythm — jab, calf kick, jab again. Aspinall manages to sneak in a right hand upstairs but the leg is already hurt.

10 - 9 Pereira

Round 2

Aspinall tries to pressure more and forces exchanges. He doubles the jab and hits a clean right right that forces Pereira to reset. Tom uses the cage to trap Alex, briefly clinching, looking for a trip. Pereira is sturdy with no weight cut, frames off and land a sneaky right cross on the exit. Tom presses again, but Pereira lands a nasty left hook as Tom's entering tall. Tom absorbs it but slows down. Alex targets the body with kicks — front and side kicks that thuds loud. Aspinall rallies later with a big right cross and a short flurry at the fence. Tom edges volume but Pereira lands the sharper and heavier strikes, edging on impact.

10-9 Pereira (20-18 Pereira)

Round 3

Aspinall, aware he's down, shoots a deeper double off a jab. Pereira defends well the first, but Tom chains to a body lock and drags him down briefly into half guard. He hold position landing steady ground shots, but not devastating ones. Pereira posts (like vs Jiri first fight) and works back to his feet with a whizzer, eating knees on the way. Once standing, Alex goes back to the calf kick but Tom is now mixing stances to protect it. Tom manages to land a right hand that staggers Alex momentarily, but Alex lessens the impact by rolling with the punch and clinching briefly.

10-9 Aspinall (29-28 Pereira)

Round 4

Tom is already breathing heavier. Pereira reasserts his jab-low kick rythm now adding the high kick threat. Mid round, he fakes the jab and connects a left hook upstairs that wobbles Tom, forcing him to clinch desperately. Alex punishes with knees and short uppercuts. Tom hangs on, survives, but looks hurt. Alex stalks, patient, landing another calf kick that hobble Aspinall's lead leg and adds a jab as Tom briefly changes levels, wobbling Tom, who survives the bell. Almost stoppage.

10-9 Pereira (39 - 37 Pereira)

Round 5

Aspinall knows he needs a finish. He comes out aggressive, winging combinations. Pereira shells, rides the storm, then punishes with body work — right kick under the elbow, jab, left hook upstairs. Tom bites down and desperately shoots again, but his leg is too compromised to drive through. Alex sprawls, shoves him off, and lands a brutal right cross on the break. Both swing at the end but Alex still lands the cleaner shots and ends the fight marching forwards behind the jab with Tom retreating.

10-9 Pereira (49-46 Pereira)


After five rounds, Alex Pereira defeats Tom Aspinall by UD, Alex Pereira 49 - 46 Tom Aspinall


IMO Pereira's low kick game and body work slow Tom's trademark bounce and entry speed. Aspinall has success with some ground control and some heavy strikes, but over 25 minutes, Pereira's sharper, heavier strikes from being the best striker, and his proven grappling development along the years hold up in a dangerous but dominant win to me. Pereira's defensive anti wrestling has evolved a lot, having the best TDD in LHW, and training in high intensity with 260 lbs pro wrestlers in the sands recently. Plus, he's one of the best in the world at reading rythm and punishing defensive gaps from speedy chaotic straight liners strikers.

The calf kick at HW, with Pereira having a lean natural 245 lbs would imo compromise Tom's already not strong leg, which he depends on for quick entries, slowing him down significantly, like Rountree not being able to keep the same huge speed after the calf kick was paying dividends and the body and head strikes were adding up — something which would likely be even more damaging for a bigger guy who depends a lot on his lead leg for explosive entries IMO

 

[BowserJr]

No one cares, puffy

 

[Luffy]

Can we get your Jake Paul vs Gervonta Davis prediction next ?

Nah I don't bother with circus fights

Next I'll do Topuria vs Islam Makhachev (which I've done btw I'm just running probabilities again to be sure on it)

 

[Luffy]

Islam Makhachev vs Illia Topuria (light weight)


Round 1

Makhachev takes center and starts with the range tools that buy reads— left body kick, probing jab, calf kick to the outside of Topuria’s lead leg. Topuria keeps a tall guard, looking to counter the straight left with his overhand right and left hook. At the first minute Ilia steps in behind a jab–right, Islam slips inside, clamps a body lock, and walks him to the fence. Trip to half-guard, head on jaw, shoulder pressure. Topuria’s base is strong, as he builds a knee shield and posts, but every rise draws a mat return. Islam stacks and lands short elbows before the horn.

10–9 Makhachev.

Round 2

Topuria tries to win back initiative with inside-low kicks and a hard right to the body. Islam answers with a teep to the gut and a high left kick that clips the guard enough to make Ilia reset. On the next exchange Ilia reaches on a right... Islam drops levels, switches double —> single, and runs him down. Half-guard again, this time with wrist rides: short elbows open a nick at the hairline. Ilia threatens a guillotine on a scramble... Islam calmly defends, passes to side, and floats back to half to set his cross-face. Attritional but clearly effective.
10–9 Makhachev (20–18).

Round 3

Best Ilia moments!! He feints level to draw the shot and tags Islam with a tight right uppercut, left hook. Islam clinches immediately, knee taps to land on top, and cools the surge with chest-to-chest pressure. Mid-round Islam climbs to the back off a half-guard turn, body triangle, wrist trap. Topuria’s hand-fighting is disciplined as he peels the choking arm and avoids deep RNC attempts, but he’s stuck eating knuckles and peeling wrists for nearly 1 minute. Damage isn’t huge, yet the control is paired with the round’s cleanest elbow on entry, but Topuria's early offense gets him the round
10–9 Topuria (29–28 Makhachev).

Round 4

Islam goes to his A-series. He shows the straight left, hits the knee tap into half guard without absorbing a counter, and immediately sets the arm triangle chain —> cross-face, head deep under Ilia’s jaw, far-side underhook. As Ilia frames to create space, Islam slides to mount, walks his knees high to trap the hips, and cinches the choke. He leans to side to finish at a safer angle. Ilia turns toward the pressure but his trapped arm keeps sealed. Slow squeeze, short adjustments, then the tap.


Makhachev wins by submission (I would go arm-triangle as his big sun) at round 4!!!




I think it goes Islam Makhachev by R3–R5 submission most likely or 4-1 UD if it goes the distance. Islam’s southpaw entries, fence rides, and top balance exploit the size and leverage gap at 155 IMO. Topuria’s defense is skilled, but his guillotine, front headlock counters would be imo blocked by Islam’s posture and patience. As time goes down, attrition + positional progress imo go heavily towards a late Dagestani squeeze or, failing that, a 49–46 type decision for Islam

 

[VinceArch]

There's Tom vs Gane. Then if Tom wins, then Tom vs JJ. If Gane wins, then... Pereira vs Gane likely as JJ vs Gane would make no sense. But I think Tom wins, fights JJ, and like I've given my opinion, JJ wins in a tough but fair win in a 3-2 (think like Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira but a little more dominant for JJ)... Then I think whoever wins between Ank and Alex Pereira, which I think Alex and btw Ank said he wouldn't go up, fights JJ... That's the most likely path.

I won't believe Jon Jones is fighting until he's in the cage.

 

[mkess101]

Next, Alex Pereira, at heavyweight physique, (~245 lbs, lean, same speed as his LHW but more durable and tougher, as he has shown it's his natural weight) stepping in with Tom Aspinall (~255 lbs on fight night).

Tom Aspinall vs Alex Pereira

My prediction

Round 1

Aspinall doesn't waste time circling light, probing with quick jabs and feints level changes. Pereira stands tall, stalking, hands high. Alex lands the inside low kick, drawing a flinch. Aspinall answers with a 1-2, catching Alex clean once, but Pereira as the striking master, stays composed and fires back with a left hook to the body. Mid round, Aspinall shoots low on a kick. Pereira sprawls, posts and frames off, escaping clean as proven by his very good grappling vs Ankalaev. In the closing minute, Pereira starts finding the rythm — jab, calf kick, jab again. Aspinall manages to sneak in a right hand upstairs but the leg is already hurt.

10 - 9 Pereira

Round 2

Aspinall tries to pressure more and forces exchanges. He doubles the jab and hits a clean right right that forces Pereira to reset. Tom uses the cage to trap Alex, briefly clinching, looking for a trip. Pereira is sturdy with no weight cut, frames off and land a sneaky right cross on the exit. Tom presses again, but Pereira lands a nasty left hook as Tom's entering tall. Tom absorbs it but slows down. Alex targets the body with kicks — front and side kicks that thuds loud. Aspinall rallies later with a big right cross and a short flurry at the fence. Tom edges volume but Pereira lands the sharper and heavier strikes, edging on impact.

10-9 Pereira (20-18 Pereira)

Round 3

Aspinall, aware he's down, shoots a deeper double off a jab. Pereira defends well the first, but Tom chains to a body lock and drags him down briefly into half guard. He hold position landing steady ground shots, but not devastating ones. Pereira posts (like vs Jiri first fight) and works back to his feet with a whizzer, eating knees on the way. Once standing, Alex goes back to the calf kick but Tom is now mixing stances to protect it. Tom manages to land a right hand that staggers Alex momentarily, but Alex lessens the impact by rolling with the punch and clinching briefly.

10-9 Aspinall (29-28 Pereira)

Round 4

Tom is already breathing heavier. Pereira reasserts his jab-low kick rythm now adding the high kick threat. Mid round, he fakes the jab and connects a left hook upstairs that wobbles Tom, forcing him to clinch desperately. Alex punishes with knees and short uppercuts. Tom hangs on, survives, but looks hurt. Alex stalks, patient, landing another calf kick that hobble Aspinall's lead leg and adds a jab as Tom briefly changes levels, wobbling Tom, who survives the bell. Almost stoppage.

10-9 Pereira (39 - 37 Pereira)

Round 5

Aspinall knows he needs a finish. He comes out aggressive, winging combinations. Pereira shells, rides the storm, then punishes with body work — right kick under the elbow, jab, left hook upstairs. Tom bites down and desperately shoots again, but his leg is too compromised to drive through. Alex sprawls, shoves him off, and lands a brutal right cross on the break. Both swing at the end but Alex still lands the cleaner shots and ends the fight marching forwards behind the jab with Tom retreating.

10-9 Pereira (49-46 Pereira)


After five rounds, Alex Pereira defeats Tom Aspinall by UD, Alex Pereira 49 - 46 Tom Aspinall


IMO Pereira's low kick game and body work slow Tom's trademark bounce and entry speed. Aspinall has success with some ground control and some heavy strikes, but over 25 minutes, Pereira's sharper, heavier strikes from being the best striker, and his proven grappling development along the years hold up in a dangerous but dominant win to me. Pereira's defensive anti wrestling has evolved a lot, having the best TDD in LHW, and training in high intensity with 260 lbs pro wrestlers in the sands recently. Plus, he's one of the best in the world at reading rythm and punishing defensive gaps from speedy chaotic straight liners strikers.

The calf kick at HW, with Pereira having a lean natural 245 lbs would imo compromise Tom's already not strong leg, which he depends on for quick entries, slowing him down significantly, like Rountree not being able to keep the same huge speed after the calf kick was paying dividends and the body and head strikes were adding up — something which would likely be even more damaging for a bigger guy who depends a lot on his lead leg for explosive entries IMO

Nah

 

[mkess101]

Islam Makhachev vs Illia Topuria (light weight)


Round 1

Makhachev takes center and starts with the range tools that buy reads— left body kick, probing jab, calf kick to the outside of Topuria’s lead leg. Topuria keeps a tall guard, looking to counter the straight left with his overhand right and left hook. At the first minute Ilia steps in behind a jab–right, Islam slips inside, clamps a body lock, and walks him to the fence. Trip to half-guard, head on jaw, shoulder pressure. Topuria’s base is strong, as he builds a knee shield and posts, but every rise draws a mat return. Islam stacks and lands short elbows before the horn.

10–9 Makhachev.

Round 2

Topuria tries to win back initiative with inside-low kicks and a hard right to the body. Islam answers with a teep to the gut and a high left kick that clips the guard enough to make Ilia reset. On the next exchange Ilia reaches on a right... Islam drops levels, switches double —> single, and runs him down. Half-guard again, this time with wrist rides: short elbows open a nick at the hairline. Ilia threatens a guillotine on a scramble... Islam calmly defends, passes to side, and floats back to half to set his cross-face. Attritional but clearly effective.
10–9 Makhachev (20–18).

Round 3

Best Ilia moments!! He feints level to draw the shot and tags Islam with a tight right uppercut, left hook. Islam clinches immediately, knee taps to land on top, and cools the surge with chest-to-chest pressure. Mid-round Islam climbs to the back off a half-guard turn, body triangle, wrist trap. Topuria’s hand-fighting is disciplined as he peels the choking arm and avoids deep RNC attempts, but he’s stuck eating knuckles and peeling wrists for nearly 1 minute. Damage isn’t huge, yet the control is paired with the round’s cleanest elbow on entry, but Topuria's early offense gets him the round
10–9 Topuria (29–28 Makhachev).

Round 4

Islam goes to his A-series. He shows the straight left, hits the knee tap into half guard without absorbing a counter, and immediately sets the arm triangle chain —> cross-face, head deep under Ilia’s jaw, far-side underhook. As Ilia frames to create space, Islam slides to mount, walks his knees high to trap the hips, and cinches the choke. He leans to side to finish at a safer angle. Ilia turns toward the pressure but his trapped arm keeps sealed. Slow squeeze, short adjustments, then the tap.


Makhachev wins by submission (I would go arm-triangle as his big sun) at round 4!!!




I think it goes Islam Makhachev by R3–R5 submission most likely or 4-1 UD if it goes the distance. Islam’s southpaw entries, fence rides, and top balance exploit the size and leverage gap at 155 IMO. Topuria’s defense is skilled, but his guillotine, front headlock counters would be imo blocked by Islam’s posture and patience. As time goes down, attrition + positional progress imo go heavily towards a late Dagestani squeeze or, failing that, a 49–46 type decision for Islam

Maybe

 

[Luffy]

Nah

You sure?

 

[mkess101]

You sure?

View attachment 1109629

Yes, very sure.

 

[Luffy]

Yes, very sure.

Then you're wrong

 

[mkess101]

Then you're wrong

Only I'm not.

 

[Luffy]

Only I'm not.

You are. Tom isn't a match for Pereira. Only Ank and JJ can beat him and that's a maybe. Both are 50/50 with Pereira. Pereira vs Tom imo is a 4-1 or a late round TKO. Tom can't handle the ability Pereira has shown thus far unless he waits for Pereira to be 42 yo