My next 3 fights prediction

[Luffy]

So here we go... I'll show how I think some fights will go. Let's start with

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

—> Tom's second belt defense

Round 1

Gane starts circling laterally, throwing front kicks and checking range with the jab. Aspinall mirrors the rhythm early, though bouncing more and fainting with heavier intent.

Gane manages to land a couple of calf kicks, but Aspinall uses his speed to get a right hand, forcing Gane into a deeper circle movement.

Then, Tom suddenly level-changes off a feint shoots for the take down. Gane's attempt to defend fails. Aspinall passes to half guard instantly and lands elbows.

Gane manages to survive kicking Tom off using his hips, but Aspinall stacks again and ends the round on top, throwing short elbows.

—> 10-9 Aspinall


Round 2

Gane switches stances, is more hesitant. He throws a long kick, Tom reads it, steps through with a jab —> overhand that lands. Gane circles but Aspinall's cage hunts is hard here, pinning Gane against the fence. He shoots single-leg into a body lock.

Ciryl Gane tries to bounce out of that, but fails. Aspinall trips him down again and on the ground he transitions beautifully to knee on belly (like vs Volkov) landing a brutal elbow that cuts Gane. Gane tries to turtle, Tom slides a front headlock transitioning into a back ride... Gane (sadly) starts to get mauled. And is saved by the bell.

—> 10-8 Aspinall as it was sheer dominance.


Round 3

Gane's face is messed, his pace is slowed and he's biting on every feint now, being overeactive. Aspinall lands a jab, Gane retreats straight back, so Tom explodes forward into a straight line —> jab, right cross, landing clear — Gane stumbles. Aspinall clinches, trips him down again, passes to half guard and full mount... Heavy g&p, fight is stopped.


Tom Aspinall defeats Gane via TKO, (Round 3 ground and pound)



Gane weaknesses with his takedown defense remains clear... And his scrambling off the bottom, as shown vs Volkov, is not layered, with flat hips, and not solid build ups. Plus, he has a tendency to retreat in straight lines when he does retreat, which is fatal vs Tom when Gane doesn't have a very good kickboxing defense, relying more on his foot work rather than framing with his hands and cutting lines.

 

[VinceArch]

The UFC is definitely going to have to search the market for new blood to sign for the HW division.

 

[mkess101]

So here we go... I'll show how I think some fights will go. Let's start with

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

—> Tom's second belt defense

Round 1

Gane starts circling laterally, throwing front kicks and checking range with the jab. Aspinall mirrors the rhythm early, though bouncing more and fainting with heavier intent.

Gane manages to land a couple of calf kicks, but Aspinall uses his speed to get a right hand, forcing Gane into a deeper circle movement.

Then, Tom suddenly level-changes off a feint shoots for the take down. Gane's attempt to defend fails. Aspinall passes to half guard instantly and lands elbows.

Gane manages to survive kicking Tom off using his hips, but Aspinall stacks again and ends the round on top, throwing short elbows.

—> 10-9 Aspinall


Round 2

Gane switches stances, is more hesitant. He throws a long kick, Tom reads it, steps through with a jab —> overhand that lands. Gane circles but Aspinall's cage hunts is hard here, pinning Gane against the fence. He shoots single-leg into a body lock.

Ciryl Gane tries to bounce out of that, but fails. Aspinall trips him down again and on the ground he transitions beautifully to knee on belly (like vs Volkov) landing a brutal elbow that cuts Gane. Gane tries to turtle, Tom slides a front headlock transitioning into a back ride... Gane (sadly) starts to get mauled. And is saved by the bell.

—> 10-8 Aspinall as it was sheer dominance.


Round 3

Gane's face is messed, his pace is slowed and he's biting on every feint now, being overeactive. Aspinall lands a jab, Gane retreats straight back, so Tom explodes forward into a straight line —> jab, right cross, landing clear — Gane stumbles. Aspinall clinches, trips him down again, passes to half guard and full mount... Heavy g&p, fight is stopped.


Tom Aspinall defeats Gane via TKO, (Round 3 ground and pound)



Gane weaknesses with his takedown defense remains clear... And his scrambling off the bottom, as shown vs Volkov, is not layered, with flat hips, and not solid build ups. Plus, he has a tendency to retreat in straight lines when he does retreat, which is fatal vs Tom when Gane doesn't have a very good kickboxing defense, relying more on his foot work rather than framing with his hands and cutting lines.

That is 3 rounds...but only one fight.

 

[Luffy]

That is 3 rounds...but only one fight.

Yeah I am still finishing writing other fights

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I am still finishing writing other fights

Ahh ok

 

[Luffy]

That is 3 rounds...but only one fight.

Btw I had Tom beating Curtis (fight 2) in round 3 too... Turned out it was round one ...

 

[mkess101]

Btw I had Tom beating Curtis (fight 2) in round 3 too... Turned out it was round one ...

Tom rd 1 has hit like what...7 of his last 9 fights or something?

 

[Luffy]

Tom rd 1 has hit like what...7 of his last 9 fights or something?

Yeah I think only Arlovski made it to round 2.

In the UFC

No other fighter went past round 1

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I think only Arlovski made it to round 2.

In the UFC

No other fighter went past round 1

And even his fluke injury loss to Blaydes was rd 1.

 

[Luffy]

And even his fluke injury loss to Blaydes was rd 1.

Yes. Though he's inactive for too long periods. He was 2 years out iirc and now more than a year out...this imo costs against active fighters. Gane is just as inactive tho and is worse than Tom in the ground so I think this one Tom gets it easily.

 

[mkess101]

Yes. Though he's inactive for too long periods. He was 2 years out iirc and now more than a year out...this imo costs against active fighters. Gane is just as inactive tho and is worse than Tom in the ground so I think this one Tom gets it easily.

He was out exactly one year after his injury. This is his longest inactive streak, mostly because the UFC told him they were definitely going to do the unification fight with Jones and didn't offer him anything else. Last time he was out a year he came back and won in about a minute. A bit of inactivity doesn't seem to affect him much.

 

[LincolnHawk1]

The UFC is definitely going to have to search the market for new blood to sign for the HW division.

Well yeah for the men’s division it’s the worst in the ufc. And it’s been that way for a long time. They need a huge influx of talent in that division. But where to get it?

 

[Luffy]

He was out exactly one year after his injury. This is his longest inactive streak, mostly because the UFC told him they were definitely going to do the unification fight with Jones and didn't offer him anything else. Last time he was out a year he came back and won in about a minute. A bit of inactivity doesn't seem to affect him much.

But constant inactivity does. It's the second time. And he is saying that the knee is still bothering him. That may be a problem for leg kicks, a torn ACL is not the same ever after a surgery... And due to his physiology, someone who relies a lot on his knee of explosiveness, that may be bad...

 

[octagonation]

Gane has akready lost too title fights, I think he will come super prepared this time

 

[mkess101]

But constant inactivity does. It's the second time. And he is saying that the knee is still bothering him. That may be a problem for leg kicks, a torn ACL is not the same ever after a surgery... And due to his physiology, someone who relies a lot on his knee of explosiveness, that may be bad...

He didn't tear his ACL. He tore his MCL. Less severe injury and less invasive surgery. Sure hasn't looked less explosive.

 

[Gregoire1]

Gane by dec. Aspinall hype train will be derailed, unlike Chimaev's.

 

[Luffy]

Gane by dec. Aspinall hype train will be derailed, unlike Chimaev's.

I think Tom gets it. Like DDP vs Whittaker for example. If Gane was active, but Gane is barely fighting either, was making movies, showed no improvement by having a terrible ground game vs Volkov. Ofc he had a broken tool vs Volkov. His real self is the one who got a clear UD vs Volkov, so he's the hardest HW Tom will face so far. But I expect a ~2nd or 3rd TKO for Tom... Or if a DEC, a very dominant one like 5-0 for Tom.

But against JJ or Pereira, future opponents for Tom Aspinall, then yes... I think Tom would meet opponents who are used to kick elite opponent's ass and get a late round TKO loss or a 4-1 UD

 

[Petarito]

The UFC is definitely going to have to search the market for new blood to sign for the HW division.

Anatoliy.Malikhin

 

[Evbo]

Anatoliy.Malikhin

As per RDR, he will not be able to meet certain UFC standards. And no, he won't comment on that any further

 

[Luffy]

In fact, next one will be Tom vs Jon Jones!! The fight everyone wants!! Only it won't be at the White House event, but here is the round by round!! This one I had studied a lot.


Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall (Undisputed UFC HW championship)

Round 1

Jones comes out framing, hand fighting and establishing his range with oblique kicks and jabs to the body. Aspinall presses forward more than Gane and Stipe did, fainting level changes to make Jones hesitate. About ~ 1 minute in, Tom lands a sharp 1-2 that gets Jones' attention, forcing him to angle off. Jones replies with a clinch against the fence looking for head control and short elbows. The round revolves around pace: Tom lands the more eye-catching straight punches but Jones shows his huge unparalleled toughness every fighter talks about and lands brutal kicks to the knees to slow Tom, ad well as inside elbows during the clinch. A close round but more impact for Tom Aspinall, and a better round for him, one which Jones needs to weather the storm. Think something like Reyes vs JJ round 1.

(Likely score: 10-9 Aspinall)



Round 2

Jones adjusts, landing front kicks into Tom's gut to slow his entries more and more. He circles wider which forces Tom to lunge. Tom times a low kick and tries to dump Jones to the mat, though Jones scrambles instantly against the fence. And then works on a collar-tie, shoulder pressure, short knees and those grinding oblique kicks to the thigh. Aspinall lands a couple quick combos, but JJ's pace control and sharp elbows in the clinch start to leave visible marks. Close round but it's in the process to weather the storm yet. Let's say Tom Aspinall gets it for slightly cleaner punches, though Jon Jones has slowed him down and managed to roll well (as well as clinch) with the strikes when Tom lunged

Likely score: 10-9 Tom Aspinall (20-18 Tom)

Round 3

That's the hinge. Aspinall is still bounce and fresh but Jones has been investing in the legs and body. Tom still manages to land a right cross, briefly buzzling Jon, who ties up immediately. Jones drags it to the fence and hits knees to the ribs and shoulder strikes. Aspinall starts slowing. Jones breaks the clinch and lands two hard body kicks plus a big elbow, gets the first takedown finishing on top. His best round so far.

10-9 Jones (29-28 Tom overall)


Round 4

Aspinall still presses, but Jones' experience shines... JJ starts to mix trips and mat returns, enough to make Tom post and waste energy. On the feet, Jones' jab sequence sets the distance and his elbow finds the mark, slicing Tom's eyebrow. Aspinall still lands strikes, but it's glancing, while Jones' shots are clear and thudding. Aspinall's pace is already clearly blunted by the horn

Score : 10-9 Jon Jones (38-38 overall)

Round 5

Classic Jones championship round. He keeps range, lands front kicks and whenever Tom tries to burst, Jones clinches, knees, and leans. Aspinall tries a rally with big hooks, but Jones times it with a spinning elbow and drags Tom to the mat, controlling wrists with the classic Dagestani hand cuff. Tom tries to post but Jones works on a crucifix and lands powerful elbows that makes it a clear round on control and damage, until the horn. Jones rises up with his hands raised. Tom raises his hands, proud to have put up a good and competitive fight but he likely knows he needed the last round and has come up short on this one.

Close fight but Jon Jones' IQ, toughness, timing and wrestling successfully smother the storm and control the last 3 frames decisively.

Score : 10-9 Jon Jones ( 48-47 Jon Jones)


Most likely outcome :

Jon Jones defeats Tom Aspinall by UD (48-47) !!!

JJ's durability, clinch, grappling superiority, and ability to smother bursts like few over five rounds tilts it to him. Aspinall shines early but fades under JJ's attritional game. It's a competitive fight but Jon Jones shines as the new champion regaining his trone in a 3-2 contest (4-1 in one of the judges who read round 2 to Jon Jones maybe)

Jones' proven championship pacing, toughness, range control with his octagon positioning and well timed jabs, oblique kicks, way better grappling are enough. Aspinall's speed and striking make him dangerous but Jones' ability to make fights ""ugly"" and attritional is likely the deciding factor, giving him his belt back in a tough but well earned 48-47 UD.