Again, that initial 2.2M dead model is if nothing shut down. No social distancing, and hospitals get over run. Obviously, that really only happened in New York City, but would happen across the country if not for the drastic measures that were taken
14,427 New Yorkers have died from Covid thus far.
New York City has 8.4 million people
Spread that out to the 330 million population in america and that 567k dead in about two months. 8 months of that rate would hit the 2.2 mil number.
I really don't think 2.2 mil total dead is a far fetched prediction if we'd done nothing and ignored it