Opinion Meet the man who destroyed your economy; Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson

His model also predicted over 40,000 dead in Sweden by the 1st of May with no lockdown, so only out by about 2000%.
 
What a fucking disgrace this is whole lockdown continues to be.

Plus the woman that was visiting him is a climate activist living in a $2 million dollar mansion, these people are sick.
 
To be fair the dude was punching above his weight in the lockdown rule breaking affair category.
 
Hard To Tell said:
His model also predicted over 40,000 dead in Sweden by the 1st of May with no lockdown, so only out by about 2000%.
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Acachcahchakchackahskschkschuaaalllyyyy he was totally correct because models make people change their behavior so if you say 1,000,000,000 will die and then 1 person dies it means the model was correct because people listened to it and behaved better!! CHECK MATE ANTI SCIENCE IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Wadtucket said:
Can Ferguson is a known doomsday huckster who said hundreds of thousands would die in foot-mouth-disease and that mad cow disease would ravage humans in the UK. He's consistently exaggerating in every prediction and gets cited by virgin alarmists as some type of authority despite his absolutely dreadful track record. He's responsible for the unnecessary torture and killing of millions of cows and for looking like a perverted section 8 Snowden copy.

Then when nothing of what he "predicts" actually happens, his dickriders simply scream SEE IT'S JUST BECAUSE WE LISTENED TO HIM AND SPERGED OUT, IF WE HADN'T LISTENED WE WOULD BE DOOMED

smh
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Good call, genius
 
62mHs.png
 
Dober4 said:
What a fucking disgrace this is whole lockdown continues to be.

Plus the woman that was visiting him is a climate activist living in a $2 million dollar mansion, these people are sick.
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And Ferguson himself has been a big part of the woke, anti-Brexit, anti-working class mob. So given how way off his numbers are now proving to be, it makes you wonder if there was more than just incompetence at play.
 
Ferguson was an important innitial source for how our government started takin this seriously but he was by no means the only important reason. Western governments and people were watching how Lombardy was having a terrible time , and the exponential infectino rate. Tucker Carlson impressed upon Trump to take this seriously which according to news reports is what swayed Trump.

Trump started taking the coronavirus seriously only when he saw Tucker Carlson in a monologue on Fox News saying 'This is real,' report says
https://www.businessinsider.com/tuc...nced-trump-coronavirus-is-serious-wapo-2020-3

Tucker Carlson says he felt an obligation to meet with Trump on seriousness of coronavirus
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...rump-on-seriousness-of-coronavirus-2020-03-18

His colleagues at Fox News called coronavirus a ‘hoax’ and ‘scam.’ Why Tucker Carlson saw it differently
https://www.latimes.com/entertainme...n-why-he-sounded-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirus
 
Sano said:
More than 6x as deadly. The seasonal flu has an average symptomatic CFR of 0,1% in the US, but that is excluding asymptomatics. While the asymptomatic rate is all over the place, some analysis combining both serology and virology suggests that ~50% of people infected with the flu, on average, are asymptomatic. Which would mean that the IFR is closer to 0,05% and that COVID-19 would be x12 as deadly with an IFR of 0,6%.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2005/cbnreport_103105.html


It's not exactly likely that it was spread 2 months before first cases were discovered. If that happened somewhere, that must be an outlier. It seems that NY would have nosedived way before they did if that was the case. Also, while the daily peak actually seem to have happened just before the lockdown in many places, that doesn't mean that 13,9% in NY were infected before the lockdown (they said 13,9% not 15%). As far as I know, the test they used were for IgM antibodies, which develops on average a week after you get infected. They took the tests about 5 days ago, so that would mean that from today, those 13,9% were all people who had been infected up to ~12 days ago. Lockdown happened March 22.
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...y-passports-cornavirus-antibody-test-outside/

Based on the antibody testing,
NY has an IFR/mortality rate of 0,6% with confirmed laboratory COVID-19 deaths. 0,8% with "probable" COVID-19 deaths added.
NYC has an IFR/mortality rate of 0,64% with confirmed laboratory COVID-19 deaths. 0,93% with "probable" COVID-19 deaths added.

Santa Clare and LA are lower at roughly 0,2% as you said, same is most likely true for the countries that haven't been hit very hard for various reasons. But Stockholm has around 0,6% as well and the Netherlands around the same. The UK, Italy and Spain probably have not done antibody testing as far as I know, but they are likely in the 0,6%-0,8% range on average as well. Keep in mind, this is with ICU units quadrippled in many countries, mitigation and/or supression, closing down elective procedures and an influx of care and medical supplies. Not just business as usual. What would you guess the mortality rate ends up at, and why?


IHME has changed their projection a few times though. Initially as high as 100.000-200.000 with mitigation, then 60.000 with supression, now it's sitting at 67.000 with supression. All figures by August 4.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I think they are undershooting deaths a bit because states are opening earlier and there's a big backlash againt the supression methods. Misinformation (on both sides) combined with either legitimately desperate people, or just impatient people. That graph is a little outdated and you can see that they projected that after April 20 that the US should be nearing a 1.500-1.700 deaths a day average. However the rolling average for the last week, since 19 April, has been 2.132 a day. The curve isn't going down but plateauing. NYC adding a few hundred deaths a day by the "probable" category plays into it, but only accounts for some of the difference. By May 1 the model is currently predicting 1.000 deaths a day. That wont happen and I wouldn't be surprised if it's still at 2.000 a day by that point.
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France now confirmed it was there in December!!!!!

Not an outlier bro. This virus was here well before the hysteria ensued. That is just a fact at this point
 
Are people still gonna defend this complete fraud
 
SBJJ said:
France now confirmed it was there in December!!!!!

Not an outlier bro. This virus was here well before the hysteria ensued. That is just a fact at this point
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It does seem like it was around a few places in December, however it could have been clusters that died down on their own before creating the pandemic:

New Report Says Coronavirus May Have Made Early Appearance in France
"Experts warned that the case could not be directly tied to France’s current outbreak without a genomic analysis.

One really has to make a distinction between the epidemic wave and isolated cases,” Samuel Alizon, an infectious diseases and epidemics specialist at the CNRS, France’s national public research organization, said in a telephone interview. It is quite possible,” he explained, “that there were isolated cases that led to transmission chains that died down.

Mr. Alizon said it was common for epidemics imported from abroad into a given country to undergo several false starts, with transmission chains that died down on their own before one of the imported cases led to an actual epidemic. "So the question is more: How many importation events did it take to launch the epidemic wave?” he said."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/europe/france-coronavirus-timeline.html

Or it could be that this was a different strain. It was recently discovered that there was a less infectious strain at the beginning of the year, but that by March the new strain had overtaken the pandemic:

The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds
"The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious, according to a new study. The new strain began spreading in Europe in early February before migrating to other parts of the world, including the United States and Canada, becoming the dominant form of the virus across the globe by the end of March, researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory wrote in a 33-page report published Thursday on BioRxiv.

The Los Alamos researchers, with the help of scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, were able to analyze thousands of coronavirus sequences collected by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza, an organization that promotes the rapid sharing of data from all influenza viruses and the coronavirus."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the...o-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html

Either of those, or a combination, would seem to be the only logical explanation on why it didn't pop off untill March if it was already around in large numbers by December. Still need more evidence.
 
Sano said:
It does seem like it was around a few places in December, however it could have been clusters that died down on their own before creating the pandemic:

New Report Says Coronavirus May Have Made Early Appearance in France
"Experts warned that the case could not be directly tied to France’s current outbreak without a genomic analysis.

One really has to make a distinction between the epidemic wave and isolated cases,” Samuel Alizon, an infectious diseases and epidemics specialist at the CNRS, France’s national public research organization, said in a telephone interview. It is quite possible,” he explained, “that there were isolated cases that led to transmission chains that died down.

Mr. Alizon said it was common for epidemics imported from abroad into a given country to undergo several false starts, with transmission chains that died down on their own before one of the imported cases led to an actual epidemic. "So the question is more: How many importation events did it take to launch the epidemic wave?” he said."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/europe/france-coronavirus-timeline.html

Or it could be that this was a different strain. It was recently discovered that there was a less infectious strain at the beginning of the year, but that by March the new strain had overtaken the pandemic:

The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds
"The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious, according to a new study. The new strain began spreading in Europe in early February before migrating to other parts of the world, including the United States and Canada, becoming the dominant form of the virus across the globe by the end of March, researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory wrote in a 33-page report published Thursday on BioRxiv.

The Los Alamos researchers, with the help of scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, were able to analyze thousands of coronavirus sequences collected by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza, an organization that promotes the rapid sharing of data from all influenza viruses and the coronavirus."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the...o-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html

Either of those, or a combination, would seem to be the only logical explanation on why it didn't pop off untill March if it was already around in large numbers by December. Still need more evidence.
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Little doubt it was also in CA in December. Right at the apex of flu seas. Nice cold weather. Many of us experienced a very unique sickness around that time but did not run to the hospitals

You guys were largely duped by the armageddon folks. It's hard to come to terms with that when you've quadrupled down on it for months.

My original post stands to be correct. This was very serious for crowded cities with shit living conditions and mass transit. But not for 95% of the country
 
SBJJ said:
Little doubt it was also in CA in December. Right at the apex of flu seas. Nice cold weather. Many of us experienced a very unique sickness around that time but did not run to the hospitals

You guys were largely duped by the armageddon folks. It's hard to come to terms with that when you've quadrupled down on it for months.

My original post stands to be correct. This was very serious for crowded cities with shit living conditions and mass transit. But not for 95% of the country
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You glossed over that it could have been another strain, or a cluster that died off. Doesn't really change anything in regards to what has happened.

Yes, this is more serious in areas with high poulation density and other variables, that's been known for quite some time now.
 
Sano said:
You glossed over that it could have been another strain, or a cluster that died off. Doesn't really change anything in regards to what has happened.

Yes, this is more serious in areas with high poulation density and other variables, that's been known for quite some time now.
Click to expand...

If it's been known why'd you argue me saying it. Lol

And no, it did not die off in the middle of flu season and winter.

AGAIN. My original post you argued with is proving to be 100% correct
 
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