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Measles outbreak in Gaines county, Texas.

What?

https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html#:~:text=In the decade before, nearly,400 to 500 people died

A vaccine became available in 1963. In the decade before, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years old. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Among reported measles cases each year, an estimated:

  • 400 to 500 people died
  • 48,000 were hospitalized
  • 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain)
I appreciate you citing more accurate estimates of measles mortality/morbidity.

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to see any sort of breakdown of these numbers in relation to health comorbidities despite the fact that malnutrition and immunocompromised individuals are at significantly higher risk.

One analysis of a more recent outbreak showed 7/10 severe cases were in vulnerable individuals.

I can’t help but wonder what mortality/morbidity is like in healthy individuals, and I believe this is important data so that parents can make an informed decision.
 
I appreciate you citing more accurate estimates of measles mortality/morbidity.

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to see any sort of breakdown of these numbers in relation to health comorbidities despite the fact that malnutrition and immunocompromised individuals are at significantly higher risk.

One analysis of a more recent outbreak showed 7/10 severe cases were in vulnerable individuals.

I can’t help but wonder what mortality/morbidity is like in healthy individuals, and I believe this is important data so that parents can make an informed decision.
Bingo
 
You’re demanding unrealistic safety standards exclusively for vaccines.

You’re demanding that my healthy children receive multiple medical interventions during their most vulnerable years. Of course vaccines should be held to the highest standard.

We can’t possibly evaluate the effect of vaccination on every possible side effect.

If you can’t even evaluate possible side effects, at the very least you have to disclose as much up front, and you most-certainly can’t claim vaccines are blanket “safe.”

And although we can’t evaluate every possible adverse event, can we at least do better than capturing 1-10% of adverse events? Can we do better than “largely inadequate” long term safety studies and decades of giving the MMR before realizing 1/640 kids has a MMR-related seizure?

There is nothing you put on or in body — from the foods you eat to the shampoo and and deodorant you use to prescription meds — which undergo more rigorous safety evaluations than vaccines.

Cochrane review disagrees with you.

Authors' conclusions: The design and reporting of safety outcomes in MMR vaccine studies, both pre- and post-marketing, are largely inadequate. The evidence of adverse events following immunisation with the MMR vaccine cannot be separated from its role in preventing the target diseases.

What exactly is your safety standard? Which risk factors should be assessed and for which vaccines?

My safety standard is proof that the benefit of vaccination will be greater then harm. This could start with an analysis of population-level and individual risk factors (both for the vaccine and disease) and available treatment options, and at a minimum, “adequate” evaluation and monitoring of long term safety. This should be done for all vaccines.


What population sizes would you consider sufficient and why?

The sufficiency of a population size in a study depends on several factors, including the type of study, the expected effect size, the rarity of the event, and the statistical power required. As such, one important step is to carefully and ACTIVELY monitor long term adverse reactions in a placebo group in order to establish a baseline.


What effect size do you plan statistically for? What type of epidemiological study designs do you propose and why? Should we only consider cohort studies? If we adjust for a dozen covariates and use propensity score matching, you’ll find another dozen what-ifs to whine about. It’s an argument from ignorance based on conceivable/theoretical harms without any consideration for plausible mechanisms and the limitations of reality.

<{vega}>

I don’t have to make up a bunch of what-it’s, you can’t even address the major concerns I’ve already laid out. All you’re doing is ignoring what I write and the evidence I post (including respected scientific review) like a child throwing a fit.

I have a general understanding of scientific research and what makes a good/bad study. I won’t pretend to be able to answer all of your questions… luckily, I’m not relying on my own knowledge, but instead able to read what independent well respected scientists know and their findings and concerns. In the case of the MMR, long term safety data is unfortunately missing despite 60+ years of use.

It’s not unreasonable to understand individual risk factors, or to expect active versus passive surveillance, or to expect careful evaluation of long term safety outcomes.

 
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I appreciate you citing more accurate estimates of measles mortality/morbidity.

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to see any sort of breakdown of these numbers in relation to health comorbidities despite the fact that malnutrition and immunocompromised individuals are at significantly higher risk.

One analysis of a more recent outbreak showed 7/10 severe cases were in vulnerable individuals.

I can’t help but wonder what mortality/morbidity is like in healthy individuals, and I believe this is important data so that parents can make an informed decision.

I've never seen such data myself, but if I were to guess, it would follow that a lot of the 48,000 people that were hospitalized, 1,000 people that developed encephalitis and 400 to 500 people that died were vulnerable/immunocompromised. And this is really one of the key purposes of vaccines! Vaccines protect not only the individuals who receive them but also the broader community, especially those who are most vulnerable as we are always going to have them.
 
I believe in vaccines but I wonder if our recommended schedule for children is too aggressive. I think the healthy people 2020 standards called for something like 17 or 19 vaccines in the first two years of life for the child to be considered fully vaccinated.

To me, as a laymen, that just seems like a heck of a lot for a little kid.
 
I've never seen such data myself…

<WellThere>

So we’re supposed to make medical decisions ignoring individual risk factors… no thanks.

but if I were to guess, it would follow that a lot of the 48,000 people that were hospitalized, 1,000 people that developed encephalitis and 400 to 500 people that died were vulnerable/immunocompromised.

I’d imagine that a significant portion of those folks are malnourished and/or would benefit from administration of Vitamin A.

Imdad, A., et al. (2017). "Vitamin A supplementation and child mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis."

This meta-analysis of Vitamin A supplementation trials found that supplementation significantly reduces the risk of mortality in children, including those with measles, by lowering the severity of infections and preventing complications that would require hospitalization.

And this is really one of the key purposes of vaccines! Vaccines protect not only the individuals who receive them but also the broader community, especially those who are most vulnerable as we are always going to have them.
I think this is an ethical discussion that should also be had. Giving my child a vaccine that can injure or kill them for the benefit of another child is an ethical dilemma, one which has even broader implications. At best, if I were to ever consent to such a thing, it would have to be with the understanding that rigorous safety research had been conducted, but we know that this just isn’t the case.
 
<WellThere>

So we’re supposed to make medical decisions ignoring individual risk factors… no thanks.

Why would you think I would suggest ignoring risk factors. Definitely consult your healthcare provider and even multiple providers and assess their immune function or check for underlying conditions that could affect vaccine response.

I’d imagine that a significant portion of those folks are malnourished and/or would benefit from administration of Vitamin A.

Imdad, A., et al. (2017). "Vitamin A supplementation and child mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis."

This meta-analysis of Vitamin A supplementation trials found that supplementation significantly reduces the risk of mortality in children, including those with measles, by lowering the severity of infections and preventing complications that would require hospitalization.

Sure, I've read that as well. Vitamin A supplementation should be used in conjunction with vaccination as there are no natural ways to prevent measles.

I think this is an ethical discussion that should also be had. Giving my child a vaccine that can injure or kill them for the benefit of another child is an ethical dilemma, one which has even broader implications. At best, if I were to ever consent to such a thing, it would have to be with the understanding that rigorous safety research had been conducted, but we know that this just isn’t the case.

Everything comes with an inherent risk and it's not just to protect other vulnerable children, it's also to protect your child. You only bring up mortality rates from measles, but you don't mention Encephalitis which can lead to convulsions, deafness, or intellectual disabilities or the complications from Pneumonia, which can lead to organ failure, sepsis, ARDS.
 
Got ya. Seems like this outbreak may have been because of unvaccinated kids, though. Do you consider that a "basic" vaccine?
We have had recent outbreaks due to mass immigration from nations that don't always have access to vaccines. It always seemed absurd that we went so nuts with Covid and the rules and yet, let millions of migrants in without vaccinating them causing issues with things like Measels, TB, and even Polio. I grew up with plenty of people from other nations and I remember the scar on their arms from Small Pox vaccines. We used to be vigilant.
 
We have had recent outbreaks due to mass immigration from nations that don't always have access to vaccines. It always seemed absurd that we went so nuts with Covid and the rules and yet, let millions of migrants in without vaccinating them causing issues with things like Measels, TB, and even Polio. I grew up with plenty of people from other nations and I remember the scar on their arms from Small Pox vaccines. We used to be vigilant.
This measles outbreak, which is at 58 cases now, originated from a Mennonite community. I don't think immigrants did this, brother.
 
Or you know just hold vaccines to the standards of other medications and provide people with real data to make an informed choice. Crazy.
Would you say the same thing about seat belts? Do away with tickets for not wearing a seatbelt and instead Provide people with real data to make an informed choice. Crazy?
 
Would you say the same thing about seat belts? Do away with tickets for not wearing a seatbelt and instead Provide people with real data to make an informed choice. Crazy?
Most people don't wear or not wear seatbelt to avoid a ticket. So yes , I could care less about seatbelt laws. It's your choice to fly out a windows or not.

I don't know why this stupid vaccines = seatbelt comparison is always made. You guys have no original thoughts of your own
 
Most people don't wear or not wear seatbelt to avoid a ticket. So yes , I could care less about seatbelt laws. It's your choice to fly out a windows or not.

I don't know why this stupid vaccines = seatbelt comparison is always made. You guys have no original thoughts of your own
I understand it’s confusing for you, and I’m sorry to hear that.

You see, seat belts are mandated by the government to be worn. It is as much for the individuals protection as it is for society as a whole. A massive spike in automotive deaths and maiming would have an adverse effect on our collective society for a variety of reasons.

This draws intellectual parallels to vaccines because vaccines are mandated by the government. They are as much for the individual as they are for the society as a whole. A massive spike in communicable diseases would have an adverse effect on our collective society for a variety of reasons.

Hope that helps. Please respond with an ignorant and cutting remark if you still need help and I’ll do my best to explain it again.
 
I understand it’s confusing for you, and I’m sorry to hear that.

You see, seat belts are mandated by the government to be worn. It is as much for the individuals protection as it is for society as a whole. A massive spike in automotive deaths and maiming would have an adverse effect on our collective society for a variety of reasons.

This draws intellectual parallels to vaccines because vaccines are mandated by the government. They are as much for the individual as they are for the society as a whole. A massive spike in communicable diseases would have an adverse effect on our collective society for a variety of reasons.

Hope that helps. Please respond with an ignorant and cutting remark if you still need help and I’ll do my best to explain it again.
I cant decide if you copy and pasted that from Google or used chatgpt. Really in the middle, yet still not surprised you lack any original thoughts of your own.

With that said , that analogy is laughable. Mandated doesn't equate to right. Bodily autonomy and public perception from traffic fatalities are not the same and Your idea that seatbelts are meant to protect a third party = vaccines are meant to protect a 3rd party is stupid. The seatbelt protects you from flying out your windshield regardless of what the 3rd party does . Vaccination is only as useful as the protection the 3rd party gives to themselves.

Now go back onto chatgpt and ask for another strawman argument somebody else has made before.
 
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