Lewis is way, way easier opponent for Jailton than Blaydes

[Kumason]

HW is very inconsistent and anything can happen.

Fun fact. HW is of course very unpredictable, but statistically it's the most predictable men's weight class there is going by a few million picks that I looked at on Tapology. Reason being is the level gap in skill, there's not a lot of HW's and sometimes a good one fights a not good one often, so statistically it is the highest correct pick ratio of a men's weight class but at the same time we know a fight can change in a blink of an eye at HW. It's the most unpredictable and statistically predictable weight class in men's mma. It's like a conundrum for my brain lol.

 

[AimedWithV]

Fun fact. HW is of course very unpredictable, but statistically it's the most predictable men's weight class there is going by a few million picks that I looked at on Tapology. Reason being is the level gap in skill, there's not a lot of HW's and sometimes a good one fights a not good one often, so statistically it is the highest correct pick ratio of a men's weight class but at the same time we know a fight can change in a blink of an eye at HW. It's the most unpredictable and statistically predictable weight class in men's mma. It's like a conundrum for my brain lol.

How about betting odds?

I mean HW holds one of the most unsuccessful betting favorites in the whole MMA history - Alistair Overeem.

(he's not the worst though)

 

[StonedLemur]

Blaydes also has KO power....

Like Lewis?...not really.

 

[StonedLemur]

Me when Lewis lands this again but on Almeida:

Lmfao

 

[Ozze]

Jailton will now, more then ever, be aware of the danger of getting KOed. It could happen with Blaydes, but he could still play that game.
With Lewis it's now a super dangerous game to play and the grappling game got much easier, so he would be very dumb to not just grapple.

Plus, this is short notice for Lewis, which means he's just there to collect the money.
And he just signed a new deal, so it's not like he's worried about winning or losing.

 

[Ace70 V2]

Blaydes also has KO power....

Most HWs do. But he's really only stopped Daukus and and the ghost of JDS standing. He is great at gnp finishes.

 

[Jackonfire]

Lewis via knee bar

 

[Kumason]

How about betting odds?

I mean HW holds one of the most unsuccessful betting favorites in the whole MMA history - Alistair Overeem.

(he's not the worst though)

I have no clue, I have never looked at it in depth, but I think considering everything the spread is often bigger than some other weight classes. The only other higher correct pick ratio's are in women's classes simply because there are less competitors so we see higher ranked (often higher skilled) fighters fighting lower ranked ones because of lack of depth in the weight class which is the main reason HW has a lead in correct pick rate ratio for men's weight classes. As far as odds, you would think the gap would close a little more with it being HW but I don't think it works that way. I look at odds all the time, I think there is in general a higher gap in odds than some other weight classes despite it being HW, but again, I haven't looked at in depth.

 

[LiQuiD42]

I've opened this thread previously, about Blaydes probably being problematic matchup for Almeida.
Lewis, though, will get taken down - and recently he gets more and more trouble of muscling out of grappling danger.

I won't be surprised if Jailton RNCs Lewis in the first.

Your thoughts?

I 100% agree with you assessment. Almeida is a Boa Constrictor, Lewis better get him out of there and do it fast because when it hits the ground, he is in for a world of trouble.

 

[Pequeño Corey]

Ill save you time. He got grapplefucked worse by Spivak than he did vs Cormier. And Jailton to my eye is much better than Spiavak. All Lewis can do is pray for a Hail Mary.

Is a Lewis KO really a Hail Mary though?

 

[Kumason]

Lewis via knee bar

Lewis vs Ricky Shavers (or something I forgot his name) before Lewis was in the UFC was the funniest fight ever. It was them like rolling each other over over and over like a 3rd grade recess fight.

 

[Nobru]

Almeida is likely to take Lewis down and win via sub within Round1. Hes WAY faster than everyone else in HW. TOO fast to be honest. Unless he eats a bomb, hes probably taking down ANY HW at this point, Jones included.

 

[RockyLockridge]

Blaydes also has KO power....

they aren't the same

 

[The XL]

Lewis is basically outclassed skill wise in all of his fights but somehow wins half of them because his wrestling defense is pretty good and he has the odd ability of his KO power still being there even when completely gassed

 

[sonhow]

Is a Lewis KO really a Hail Mary though?

In this case Id say so

 

[Bobby Boulders]

Still interesting, imo. Especially after BB's obvious turn towards not giving a single fuck, which we saw in his recent fight. He is apparently at that point where he's just going to go in a give all hell and bring things we don't see from him often. When you have that kind of power, and you're not necessarily showing what is expected of you, it makes you dangerous.

Will watch with interest.

 

[wwkirk]

Lewis via knee bar

Amazingly, Derrick does have one submission win!

 

[MigitAs]

Hey bro why didn't you invite me to that?
How was it? Were there any hot girls?

It was a

 

[MigitAs]

ban bet it

I ban bet I fucked your mom and I’m you’re dad

 

[Sincere Guy]

Hope everyone get a refund after this shit show and they fight with an empty arena. Malhadinho AND Brazilians deserves someone better. I'm advising all my friends to do that and probably their friends will follow suit also.