Setup looks good, as does your walk-out. You run into trouble when you allow your chest to fall; you need to constantly be thinking "chest up!". When your chest collapses here, you lose your arch, your back rounds, and the weight of the bar is displaced over your toes, not the middle of your foot. Also, when your chest dips and your back rounds, your elbows are going to flare up, which will further compound weight displacement issues.
The issue is probably a muscle-group weakness, and it's probably twofold. First, your hips rise out of the hole because you're lacking a bit of posterior chain strength. You're not getting your glutes to engage the movement enough, which is why you're leading slightly with your hips out of the hole. This is a pretty small weakness, and it's not as prevalent in your squat as some bad offenders, but it causes you to goodmorning the weight slightly, and you've got an upper-back or erector weakness that's keeping you from maintaining an arched back as you do so. Elevated hips plus a rounded back is a really bad combination for a low-bar squat, because it puts you in a biomechanically awful position. Some can get away with just the former on heavy attempts (when performed in moderation), but the two, together, are bad.
The first fix would, for me, be to simply focus on keeping your chest up and keeping your arch out of the hole. This could be an issue that's corrected within the movement itself over time. The second would be to consider seated goodmornings with a rounded back for an assistance movement, plus additional upper-back work.
