Quick update, Shark and
@t6p:
Good Magic had a freakout today in his workout. I threw out Mendy of my KD picks owing to how he looked in his prelim workout. Not only was GM sweaty this week like Mendy was, but at the end of the ride today when he met up with the pony, he reared, bucked and almost threw the excercise rider. If you remember Mendy also got a little out of control at the nemesis of his KD workout.
GM looked great in his KD workouts but just seems to be a bit off to me. I think Im throwing him out of my tri based on that. It will be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow, as he is definitely the second best horse in the field but something seems off to me.
I don't know much about betting but I know horses as that is what I do - train riding horses. He could recover, but to me, that is a bad sign just 24 hours away from the race. Food for thought
That's what this game is about and how you can get paid if you're correct. Finding a reason to dislike a horse that most people betting into the pool are going to like to hit the board. Good Magic will probably be on 40%-50% of people's exacta tickets and 80% of the trifecta plays, so if you can beat him out of the top 2 or 3 you're going to get paid in a nice way provided you're correct with your observation of him.
I also think there's a decent enough chance that Good Magic got demoralized when trying to race against Justify in the Derby. Maybe not more likely than not considering Good Magic has responded well to defeats before. But a decent enough chance. Good Magic is/was an alpha horse, but he found Justify was more alpha, and that could mean that when Good Magic's jockey asks him to attack Justify on the far turn the response might be that he backs down instead of trying to compete. Going into the Derby I thought there was a chance that Bolt d'Oro got demoralized by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby as there was one particular moment in that race where I saw Bolt concede leadership to Justify (Justify veered in towards Bolt in that race and Bolt backed down instantly). When it came to the Kentucky Derby Bolt didn't want any part of Justify around the turn when his jockey asked Bolt to go after him, and Bolt once again conceded to Justify before fading badly in the stretch. If you rewatch the Derby there was a moment during the race about 3/16ths from the wire where Good Magic, while being asked to take on Justify in the stretch, turned his head outwards like he was trying to get away from the big horse. It may have been nothing and it was simply Good Magic getting tired, and probably was. But there's also a decent enough chance that it could have also been a sign of Good Magic conceding leadership to Justify. If it was then we'll probably see the same thing happen to Good Magic that happened to Bolt d'Oro in the Derby. His jockey asks him around the far turn, Good Magic has no response because he already knows Justify is the superior to him, and he fades badly down the stretch in finishing off the board.
That's the stance I'm going to take tomorrow when it comes to the race just because, while it may not be the case, I think there's a much better chance that Good Magic got demoralized in the Derby than what the odds will indicate. We have to gamble sometimes, right? We have to measure our probabilities against what the public's probabilities are and see if we can find some value. I'm not interested in a 3/1 exacta myself. I'd rather try for a 25/1 or maybe even a 50/1 exacta by keying Justify on top of some longshots. The public will bet it like a 90/10 probability whereas I think the chances that Good Magic was demoralized is much higher than 10%. Maybe somewhere in the 30% or 40% range. So I owe it to myself to play the race that way.
You also have to consider that Good Magic isn't in this race to run 2nd again. He's the one horse in this race besides Justify that you know that the connections are in it to try to win it. Most of these horses who are in this race will have connections that will be tickled pink if they run 2nd, and some will even be ridden with the intentions to run 2nd. Good Magic's people aren't. They're going to try to win it and they'll ask the horse to take on Justify at some point in the race. So even if Good Magic wasn't demoralized by Justify last time out there's a very real chance that Justify repels Good Magic's challenge and causes him to fade again in the stretch thus opening the race up for a longer priced horse to round out the exacta.
So whether it be from a herd dynamics standpoint or one from race dynamics, I think the play for this race has to be to try to beat Good Magic out of the exacta at least. He is the 2nd best horse in the race going in. No doubt about it. But based on the above couple of points I'm trying to make I don't think his chances to run 2nd are all that much greater than other horses in the race when everything is considered. Certainly not 5, 10 or 15 times greater as the exacta payouts would have you believe. That's where the value is in this race I do believe.
I'm probably going to play this race like a 1x3 exacta with no Good Magic, and then maybe do a 1x3x4 trifecta by including Good Magic in 3rd only for some defensive purposes. A Justify over Good Magic isn't worth it. A Justify over Good Magic over someone else in the trifecta probably isn't much worth it either.
