Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Saw this posted on the paceadvantage forums a little while ago. Apparanetly the poster got it from a book 'Poker, Sex & Dying: The Heart of a Gambler' by Juel E. Anderson;


"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It's lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow; its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening...remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble...go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey. And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."

 

[Sharkey]

Crazy. That’s the beauty of it too though. A couple hits like that can quickly make up for a lot of losses.

Thanks Shark. I was up about 25u for the five cards prior to that one so I’m not too worried about it. I’m expecting to occasionally have results like that with how I’ve adjusted my betting style this year. I hope you’re right about this week’s card. Although I may be keeping it small since I’m not sure how much time I’ll have for watching tape.

You've been mostly making low risk, high reward type of plays recently haven't you? If so, then yeah, I guess days like that are to be expected on the rare occasion. Glad to see that you've been crushing it before that last card, though.

 

[t6p]

You've been mostly making low risk, high reward type of plays recently haven't you? If so, then yeah, I guess days like that are to be expected on the rare occasion. Glad to see that you've been crushing it before that last card, though.

Pretty much. My strategy has essentially been to look for underdogs who have a good chance to win, along with playing props that I think have value. I’m not completely abandoning playing favorites, but I’m trying to be very selective and I’m avoiding heavy favorites altogether.

 

[Sharkey]

Pretty much. My strategy has essentially been to look for underdogs who have a good chance to win, along with playing props that I think have value. I’m not completely abandoning playing favorites, but I’m trying to be very selective and I’m avoiding heavy favorites altogether.

That's smart of you, T, and it's obviously been working very well for you.

I've been trying to be much more selective on what races I bet myself recently. I think I did numbers for at least 20, maybe 25 races this weekend and yet I only bet maybe 5 of them. Last night I did numbers for 6 races for today, and I didn't find one worth playing. Trying to find the right spots to bet rather than betting them all just because I did the numbers for them. i.e. Horses with a big edge I can key on top of exotics, big longshots that rank top 3, or races where there's a way overbet favourite like Patch. Those days when I'm betting 12-15 races per day are hopefully behind me.

 

[Sharkey]

Found a key horse to play tomorrow at Louisiana Downs;

==========

Race 6;

1- 300.9
2- 323.8 Oh No Petrino 5/2 **
3- 268.6
4- 260.0
5- 320.2 Rose's Asset 7/2 **
6- 307.6 Just Cruising 6/1 *
7- 296.0
8- 356.2 Best Bling 3/1 **** (key horse)

==========

I'll play this race the same way I did these other recent ones. Win bet if the #8 horse goes off around 2/1 (or better), and then key it on top of the other three named in exactas, trifectas and maybe supers.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

Today I've been thinking about a little system within our number system here when it comes to fair odds, and want to run it by you.

advantage on the numbers + random = chance of winning/fair odds

e.g. For this #8 horse he has a 32.4 point advantage on the numbers, and in a field of eight the chance of random is 12.5%. If I add those two together I get 44.9%, which would equate to fair odds of 6/5. I think that's being conservative as well since horses with that type of edge seem to win significantly more than half the time. I'd say they win 2 out of 3, but I don't know for sure.

What do you think, bud? It's obviously not perfect since it doesn't take into account how the 3rd ranked and on down horses scored. But do you think it could work as a bit of a beginning guide?

 

[t6p]

@t6p

Today I've been thinking about a little system within our number system here when it comes to fair odds, and want to run it by you.

advantage on the numbers + random = chance of winning/fair odds

e.g. For this #8 horse he has a 32.4 point advantage on the numbers, and in a field of eight the chance of random is 12.5%. If I add those two together I get 44.9%, which would equate to fair odds of 6/5. I think that's being conservative as well since horses with that type of edge seem to win significantly more than half the time. I'd say they win 2 out of 3, but I don't know for sure.

What do you think, bud? It's obviously not perfect since it doesn't take into account how the 3rd ranked and on down horses scored. But do you think it could work as a bit of a beginning guide?

Interesting idea Shark. I think it sounds like something worth testing out at the very least. In situations like that, along with a win bet, it seems like it would make sense to key that horse on top in exotics since the win probability is so high vs laying out the extra money for a box. And it looks like that's exactly how you're planning to play the race. I like it!

 

[Sharkey]

Interesting idea Shark. I think it sounds like something worth testing out at the very least. In situations like that, along with a win bet, it seems like it would make sense to key that horse on top in exotics since the win probability is so high vs laying out the extra money for a box. And it looks like that's exactly how you're planning to play the race. I like it!

I've done a few races for the Belmont card tomorrow already testing out this new concept of what constitutes fair odds;


==========

Race 2;

1- 299.6
2- 321.2
3- 367.5
4- 368.2
5- 400.6
6- 353.8
7- 414.8 Go Big Or Go Home 2/1 (28.5% = 5/2 fair odds)

==========

Race 4;

1- 355.8
2- 378.7
3- 363.6
4- 360.0
5- 390.4 Hard Way Winner 9/5 (28.4% = 5/2 fair odds)
6- 376.3

==========

Race 8;

1- 413.7
2- 449.8 Heavy Meddle 8/1 (14.2% = 6/1 fair odds)
3- 340.6
4- 427.0
5- 437.8
6- 433.8
7- 443.1
8- 384.5
9- 446.7

==========


So far I think it looks okay. There's no horses worth keying in any of those races, so I'll be basically looking for at least 5/2 on those horses in race 2 and 4, and 6/1 in race 8. If I don't get the odds then I'll just pass on the races. Just a preliminary guide so far until I can figure out something a little more advanced when it comes to fair odds.

But yeah, I'm looking for horses with a big edge on the numbers to key on top for sure. I hit a couple of supers earlier in the year by doing that, and hit these two trifectas recently by doing the same (should have had a 3rd if I was paying more attention). If I can turn a 2/1 horse (that the numbers say should be 1/2) into a 5/1 or 10/1 horse by keying it on top then I'd be dumb not to do it.

 

[Sharkey]

Found a key horse to play tomorrow at Louisiana Downs;

==========

Race 6;

1- 300.9
2- 323.8 Oh No Petrino 5/2 **
3- 268.6
4- 260.0
5- 320.2 Rose's Asset 7/2 **
6- 307.6 Just Cruising 6/1 *
7- 296.0
8- 356.2 Best Bling 3/1 **** (key horse)

==========

I'll play this race the same way I did these other recent ones. Win bet if the #8 horse goes off around 2/1 (or better), and then key it on top of the other three named in exactas, trifectas and maybe supers.

Looks like the #5 horse scratched out of this race, which kinda sucks since it figured to take money in the win spot. Hopefully people leave the #8 alone for the most part and gravitate more towards betting the #2.

==========

Race 6;

1- 300.9 So Silly Lillie 8/1
2- 323.8 Oh No Petrino 5/2 **
3- 268.6
4- 260.0
6- 307.6 Just Cruising 6/1 *
7- 296.0
8- 356.2 Best Bling 3/1 **** (key horse) 46.7% (6/5 fair odds)

==========

I'll play the #8 horse to win ($18) if I can get 7/5 or better as they're entering the gates, and then key it over the other three in exactas ($5 each) and trifectas ($2 each).

 

[Sharkey]

I think I may need a break from this shit after tomorrow.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh yeah, the Preakness is coming up this weekend. Meh, I'm not sure if the race is worth betting unless you think there is something behind Justify's foot issues after the Derby or if you think Good Magic was demoralized chasing Justify in that race. I don't think I can get behind either thought. Can't see WinStar or Baffert entering Justify in the race if he even had the minorest (is that a word?) of issues since he's probably already worth about $50-$100 million to them in the breeding shed. Plus, he's looked good in training since the video of him favouring his foot came out last week. And Good Magic has responded well to getting beat before, so I don't know why he'd be all that affected from getting beat last time.

Maybe our resident trifecta crushing Triple Crown grand master @t6p will have a play for us.

 

[t6p]

Oh yeah, the Preakness is coming up this weekend. Meh, I'm not sure if the race is worth betting unless you think there is something behind Justify's foot issues after the Derby or if you think Good Magic was demoralized chasing Justify in that race. I don't think I can get behind either thought. Can't see WinStar or Baffert entering Justify in the race if he even had the minorest (is that a word?) of issues since he's probably already worth about $50-$100 million to them in the breeding shed. Plus, he's looked good in training since the video of him favouring his foot came out last week. And Good Magic has responded well to getting beat before, so I don't know why he'd be all that affected from getting beat last time.

Maybe our resident trifecta crushing Triple Crown grand master @t6p will have a play for us.

Haha Shark. Out of principle I'll have to take a shot at it, but I'd strongly recommend that no one tail me.

 

[Sharkey]

In race 7 coming up shortly at Parx, I have the #5 horse, Master Yank, as the top ranked horse with this new fair odds thingy I'm doing saying he should be 7/2. He's 4/1 currently with a couple minutes to post, so I might take a small bite if the odds stays just a little longer.

 

[Sharkey]

I passed at 7/2. Hope I don't regret it.

 

[Sharkey]

Nope, no regrets at all. He could manage to beat one other horse.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha Shark. Out of principle I'll have to take a shot at it, but I'd strongly recommend that no one tail me.

Your humility means that this guy is doubling up on whatever you play, T. Yep.

 

[Sharkey]

Why is this #2 horse sitting at even money in race 1 at Louisiana Downs? It got beat by 28 lengths in it's last race and regressed 20 points in the process. It also hasn't raced for 90+ days. Then again, it's a turf race, so who the hell knows. I don't see it, which, seeing as it's on the green stuff, probably means that the horse will win by open lengths.

 

[Sharkey]

Why is this #2 horse sitting at even money in race 1 at Louisiana Downs? It got beat by 28 lengths in it's last race and regressed 20 points in the process. It also hasn't raced for 90+ days. Then again, it's a turf race, so who the hell knows. I don't see it, which, seeing as it's on the green stuff, probably means that the horse will win by open lengths.

Off the board at even money. The dummys out there deserved that.

9/1 over 50/1 over 20/1 means some big payouts for the lucky few.

 

[Sharkey]

Almost 7000/1 on the trifecta.

 

[Sharkey]

6/1 in the early betting on this #8 horse at Louisiana Downs. The will pays say it's probably going to be half of that. And that's fine. 3/1 or even 5/2 is perfectly okay with me.